Small Craft Advisory 114, NWS Anchorage, AK

564 
FZAK52 PAFC 072357
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
257 PM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-081245-
257 PM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front pushes across the Bering on Sunday. A 990 mb low 175 nm
miles northwest of Shemya Sunday night moves north towards the 
Kamchatka Peninsula Monday morning. An almost stationary front 
lingers in the western Bering Monday into Tuesday.

$$

PKZ150-081245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
257 PM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ155-081245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
257 PM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt except SE 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ160-081245-
Bristol Bay-
257 PM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy freezing
spray near the ice edge.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Freezing
spray.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Freezing
spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-081245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
257 PM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt except E 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 8
ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-081245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
257 PM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-081245-
Unalaska Bay-
257 PM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-081245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
257 PM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ173-081245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
257 PM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-081245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
257 PM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ175-081245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
257 PM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-081245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
257 PM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ177-081245-
Adak to Kiska-
257 PM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ178-081245-
Kiska to Attu-
257 PM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
20 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 40 kt after midnight. Seas
22 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ179-081245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
257 PM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ180-081245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
257 PM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Heavy
freezing spray near the ice edge. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy
freezing spray near the ice edge. Rain.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy freezing
spray near the ice edge Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.

$$

PKZ181-081245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
257 PM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Heavy freezing spray. Snow
and rain.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Heavy freezing spray. Snow and
rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ185-081245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
257 PM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 45 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 22 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow and 
rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

392 
FZAK52 PAFC 081242
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-090145-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front remains confined to the Western Bering through Tuesday 
morning. A second front moves into the Southern Bering Tuesday 
evening and moves across the Bering through Wednesday morning. 

$$

PKZ150-090145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ155-090145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ160-090145-
Bristol Bay-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy
freezing spray near the ice edge.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy freezing
spray near the ice edge.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-090145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-090145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-090145-
Unalaska Bay-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 45 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-090145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ173-090145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ174-090145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ175-090145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ176-090145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ177-090145-
Adak to Kiska-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ178-090145-
Kiska to Attu-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ179-090145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-090145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-090145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Snow.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 35 kt.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-090145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

837 
FZAK52 PAFC 090043
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-091400-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 988 mb North Pacific low extends a front through the Eastern
Bering that dissipates Tue afternoon. A front over the Western
Aleutians dissipates Tue afternoon. A front approaches the
Central Aleutians Wed afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-091400-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ155-091400-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ160-091400-
Bristol Bay-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy
freezing spray near ice edge.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy freezing
spray near ice edge.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy
freezing spray near ice edge.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-091400-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-091400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ171-091400-
Unalaska Bay-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-091400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ173-091400-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt by afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ174-091400-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 increasing to 25 kt by afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ175-091400-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ176-091400-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ177-091400-
Adak to Kiska-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt decreasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 18
ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt becoming NE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15
ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ178-091400-
Kiska to Attu-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt decreasing to S 35 kt after midnight. Seas 
21 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt becoming N 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.THU...N wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ179-091400-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt increasing to 25 kt by afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ180-091400-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.THU...E wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-091400-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Heavy freezing spray near ice edge. Snow.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Heavy freezing spray near ice edge.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Heavy freezing spray near ice edge.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt.
.THU...E wind 35 kt.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-091400-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

449 
FZAK52 PAFC 091302
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-100230-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Two fronts off a North Pacific low move across the Bering. The 
first front moves Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. The 
second front enters the Southern Bering Wednesday afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-100230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft building to 19 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ155-100230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ160-100230-
Bristol Bay-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy
freezing spray near ice edge.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Freezing
spray near ice edge.
.WED...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.

$$

PKZ165-100230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 
ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ170-100230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ171-100230-
Unalaska Bay-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-100230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ173-100230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 
ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-100230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ175-100230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-100230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ177-100230-
Adak to Kiska-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming NE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-100230-
Kiska to Attu-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming N 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.WED...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.THU...N wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ179-100230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ180-100230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.THU...SE wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.

$$

PKZ181-100230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 40 kt.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ185-100230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
419 PM AKST Sat Feb 6 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level ridge is positioned over the western Gulf with an
axis extending to the northwest along the western coast of
Alaska. Upstream, an upper level trough is in place over the
western Bering with a 975 mb low at the surface, centered west of
Shemya. The front associated with this low is gradually
traversing the Bering and tracking eastward, bringing gusty
southerly winds and rain to the central Aleutians. With a strong
ridge maintaining its hold over the Gulf, a plume of moisture
extending from the tropics is being steered over the central
Aleutians, leading to abundant precipitation. Meanwhile over
Southcentral, offshore flow has kept skies clear and a cold
Arctic airmass remains in place over much of the Mainland.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model solutions continue to remain in fairly good agreement
through the short term. There are some discrepancies across
solutions regarding the timing of a front arriving to the
Southwest coast of Alaska Monday morning. Right now, the NAM is
the most aggressive, bringing this front inland; however, the GFS
depicts the front stalling over the eastern Bering and offering
only minimal precipitation across the Southwest coast. This will
be something to monitor over the next few model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...LIFR conditions are expected with fog and stratus over the
terminal. Conditions may briefly improve to MVFR, however fog is
expected to linger through Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Again, patchy fog and low stratus continue to linger over portions
of Southcentral mainly near Cook Inlet. It's taking a little
longer than originally expected to scour out. Synoptic-wise, there
is a 1040 mb surface high north of the Brooks Range and an
inverted trough bisecting Prince William Sound. By Monday morning,
the models have the surface high at 1064 mb with the ridge
extending to the Alaska Range. This pattern is going to produce
widespread brutally cold temperatures. This pattern shows no sign
of breaking down anytime soon, so expect the bitter cold to be a
long duration event.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3...Saturday
Afternoon through Tuesday)...

An upper level ridge will dominate Southwest Alaska with some high
clouds spilling into the area. Patchy fog is possible around the
Bristol Bay region mainly around King Salmon. Elsewhere winds
will increase from the north tonight keeping fog out of the
western parts of Bristol Bay including Dillingham and the
Kuskokwim Delta.

Sunday evening through Monday morning a front will approach from
the eastern Bering this will bring some light precipitation. There
may be a period of freezing rain or sleet Sunday night through
Monday morning from Nunivak Island and the coastal areas of the
Kuskokwim Delta. There is still some uncertainty between models
on precipitation type, but there appears to be a warm layer aloft
that could produce freezing precipitation. There may also be a
period of blowing snow Sunday night or Monday morning but not
expected to reach advisory levels. On Monday, afternoon the warm
layer will weaken and all precipitation should be snow with up to
5 inches of snowfall possible on Nunivak Island with less than 2
inches along coastal areas of the Kuskokwim Delta.

Tuesday the front will weaken with some light snow possible
mainly across the Bristol Bay region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3...Saturday
Afternoon through Tuesday)...

Several fronts and lows will impact the Bering Sea and Aleutians
through Tuesday.

A front with pockets of storm force winds is slowly moving across
the central Bering and eastern Aleutians. This system has a
tropical connection with a plume of moisture seen on CIMSS MIMIC
satellite imagery moving across the Unalaska Island area and into
the southern Bering. This will bring one to two inches of
additional rainfall on top of the inch or so that has already
fallen. This will cause some minor issues with ponding of rain on
roads around Dutch Harbor and Cold Bay. Additionally gusty winds
up to 60 mph area possible along this front from Nikolski to Cold
Bay these winds will gradually decrease overnight and tomorrow
morning as the front moves east. This front will gradually weaken
Sunday afternoon through Monday across the eastern Bering and
AKPEN area.

Another front with storm force winds will approach the western
Aleutians Sunday evening through Monday morning this front will
move northeast and weaken on Monday as it encounters a strong
ridge to the east. Tuesday a low will form along the front across
the western and central Aleutians producing high end Gales there
could possibly be storm force winds but uncertainty exists between
model solutions.

Finally, a north Pacific low will approach the eastern Aleutians
and AKPEN Tuesday but uncertainty on details of how this low will
evolve.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tue through Thu)...

Gulf of Alaska: A front persists over the Northern Gulf Coast on
Tuesday. Models begin to diverge on Wednesday as a North Pacific
low lifts into the forecast area. Winds will begin to increase
Thursday morning as a gale force front enters the Gulf waters
throughout the day on Thursday. The biggest uncertainty is the
timing of this front.

Bering Sea: A front stretches over the northern Bering though
late Tuesday as it continues to lift northward. The next North
Pacific system south of the Chain will extend its front across
the Aleutians by Tuesday afternoon. Models are in good agreement
in the general position of this low, but are having more
difficulty handling the strength and where the low will track as
it lifts northward through Thursday. In any case, models are in
good agreement that widespread gale force winds will spread across
the Bering starting Wednesday morning and continuing through
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wed through Sat)...

A very cold and dry pattern is expected across the Alaskan
mainland for the extended period. The coldest temperatures will be
at the start of the period on Wednesday and temperatures will
gradually moderate through Saturday. Teleconnections support an
upper level ridge building across the Alaskan mainland on
Wednesday and continue through Saturday as the Arctic Oscillation
will be very strong in the negative phase while the East Pacific
Oscillation is expected to be in the negative phase. There is good
ensemble agreement that the surface pressure pattern will favor
offshore flow as higher pressure is expected farther inland across
the Alaska interior with lower pressure over the North Pacific
Ocean and Bering Sea. This surface pressure pattern will keep
temperatures very cold as the offshore flow pattern means cold air
from the Alaskan interior will make its way toward the coast.
Temperatures should moderate throughout the period due to the
upper level ridging persisting across the area combined with the
core of the high pressure moving farther to the east over Yukon
Territory. This will support the weakening of the strong offshore
flow and allow temperatures to moderate, especially in coastal
areas.

With respect to storm tracks, most activity is expected to remain
over the Bering/Aleutians. Ensembles show negative Mean Sea Level
Pressure (MSLP) anomalies across the Bering/Aleutians while
deterministic models show lows moving from the North Pacific into
the Bering Sea during the extended period. There is a much lower
confidence on the exact tracks of these potential systems as the
highest standard deviation in ensemble member MSLP for both the
GEFS and GEPS exist over the Bering/Aleutians as well as the
deterministic models showing disagreement in the exact placement
of these lows. Deterministic models show waves of upper level
energy associated with these storms in the Bering Sea moving over
the western Alaskan mainland on Friday and thus could bring a
chance of snow, though confidence is very low at this time with
respect to the placement and orientation of these waves.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 178 185 412 414.
 		 Gale Warning 155 165 170-172 177-179 180 181.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 127 160 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PJS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RC
MARINE/LONG TERM...AH/ED