Gale Warning 611, NWS Anchorage, AK

942 
FZAK62 PAFC 090013
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
413 PM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-091415-
413 PM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 971 mb low at 60N 162W weakens as it tracks inland tonight. 
A 999 mb North Pacific low at 49N 168E moves to 53N 180E at 995 
mb by Sat afternoon and then reaches 58N 171W at 990 mb for Sun 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
413 PM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind up to 20 kt becoming NE 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 to 9 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt becoming NW 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
413 PM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE up to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
413 PM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ414-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
413 PM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 22 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

724 
FZAK62 PAFC 091135
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 AM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-100100-
335 AM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 992 mb low at 53N 177E this morning moves to 58N 174W at 989 mb 
Sunday morning. The low then moves to 59N 164W at 989 mb Monday 
morning. A front moves across the western Bering/Aleutians Sunday 
morning. 

$$

PKZ411-100100-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
335 AM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind up to 20 kt becoming NE 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 to 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-100100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
335 AM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-100100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
335 AM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-100100-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
335 AM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

069 
FZAK62 PAFC 091153
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
353 AM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-100115-
353 AM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 992 mb low at 53N 177E this morning moves to 58N 174W at 989 mb 
Sunday morning. The low then moves to 59N 164W at 989 mb Monday 
morning. A front moves across the western Bering/Aleutians Sunday 
morning. 

$$

PKZ411-100115-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
353 AM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind up to 20 kt becoming NE 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 to 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-100115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
353 AM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-100115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
353 AM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-100115-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
353 AM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

536 
FZAK62 PAFC 092344
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
344 PM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-101330-
344 PM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 992 mb low at 54N 179W moves to 58N 170W at 989 mb Sun afternoon. 
The low then moves to 59N 161W at 990 mb Mon morning and then inland 
Mon afternoon. A 978 mb low will move to 55N 170E Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-101330-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
344 PM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-101330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
344 PM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-101330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
344 PM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-101330-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
344 PM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 22 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

291 
FZAK62 PAFC 101154
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
354 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-110115-
354 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 989 mb low at 58N 173W this morning moves over Bristol Bay Monday 
morning, then inland Monday afternoon. A second 979 mb low at 55N 
171E Monday afternoon moves to 57N 173W at 983 mb Tuesday morning.

$$

PKZ411-110115-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
354 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-110115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
354 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 7 to
12 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-110115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
354 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-110115-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
354 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

678 
FZAK62 PAFC 101645
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
845 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-110315-
845 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 989 mb low at 58N 173W this morning moves over Bristol Bay Monday 
morning, then inland Monday afternoon. A second 979 mb low at 55N 
171E Monday afternoon moves to 57N 173W at 983 mb Tuesday morning.

$$

PKZ411-110315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
845 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-110315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
845 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft. Rain.

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt becoming NW 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 24 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 7 to
12 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-110315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
845 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 22 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-110315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
845 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming W 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft. Rain. 
.MON...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
520 PM AKDT Thu Oct 7 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Today represents a brief break between systems. Yesterday's broad
low is now well into the interior of the state. In its wake, it
left plenty of moisture and westerly flow. This led to continued
drizzle, low clouds, and some fog stretching across much of
Southcentral. Some fog and light rain also held on much of the
morning across Southwest AK.

The rest of the area is primed for the next system. This low is
rapidly developing over the southern Bering. It is in a favorable
environment for deep cyclogenesis. A strong finger of the
subtropical jet at 300 mb (30,000') is supporting it at 130 kts
as it flows from southwest to northeast. There is deep moisture
moving up with this system as well which is helping to create some
convection over the North Pacific and produce a few lightning
strikes this morning. The final component for this system is some
colder air spilling over the Western Bering from Siberia. 850 mb
temperatures over that area are currently -11 C where by comparison,
they were 1C on the Cold Bay sounding this morning. This cold air
will help to create the thermal gradient this system will feed
off on and allow for some of the gustier winds to mix down over
the Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement which is leading to moderate
confidence in the forecast. There are some key issues to note.
First, the deepening surface low over the Bering took a bit of jog
to the north overnight. So instead of coming onshore near Cape
Newenham Friday morning, it now looks like it will pass over
Nunivak Island before crossing into Western AK. The net effect of
this is likely stronger winds over a longer fetch into Bristol
Bay. Thus, a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the
Bristol Bay coastline. This northerly jog could also make for
slightly less wind for the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. Another
area where models are struggling is with the developing triple
point low over the north and western Gulf of AK Fri afternoon.
The exact track of this low remains somewhat hard to pinpoint as
the ECMWF and NAM keep it further north and move it into Prince
William Sound faster. Meanwhile, the GFS has held it slower and
further south. Forecast update with this feature were minimal
today as we wait for better model certainty.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Light southerly winds and abundant moisture will keep
ceilings hovering just below VFR this afternoon. Things should
slowly break up as some dry air starts to work in this evening,
but the timing of this is highly uncertain. The next front will
race towards the area late tonight bringing another bout of south-
southeast winds. The best chance for gusty SE winds is between
11-15z. After that, the down-inlet gradient should shift things
out of the north. Light rain should start overnight and create
the potential for some MVFR ceilings.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 3: Today
through Sunday afternoon)...

Wet conditions return as a low in the Bering pushes a front
through Southcentral. Cloud cover increases into the evening,
with areas aside from Kodiak remaining mostly dry until late
tonight. The bulk of the precipitation will fall as rain Friday
morning as the advection of warm air in southerly flow keeps
overnight lows above freezing. Localized areas of moderate to
heavy rainfall are expected along coastal areas on the eastern
Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound. Over higher terrain,
colder temperatures will likely produce snow, with accumulations
possible in Broad Pass and near Paxson. For now, accumulations
look to remain below advisory criteria. As well as rain and snow,
the frontal passage will also bring gusty winds through the
Kamishak Gap and through Turnagain Arm Friday morning.

Low pressure lingers in the Gulf through Sunday as a low forms at
the triple point. Though it moves into the Prince William Sound by
Saturday, broad trough remains in the Gulf. Precipitation lingers
through Saturday before beginning to diminish Sunday as a ridge
builds in from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 to 2: This afternoon
through Saturday night)...

A deepening Bering low with accompanying occluded front will
continue to move towards the area tonight. This will bring
increasing winds and moderate to heavy rain at times overnight.
The low will move inland on Friday with showers across much of the
area. Most areas will receive between a half inch to an inch of
rain through Friday. Additionally, with persistent southwesterly
winds there is a threat of coastal flooding Friday (see the
coastal flood advisory for more details). By Saturday the low
slowly moves northeast and weakens with showers still a good bet.
By Saturday night the showers will decrease in coverage, but still
chances of precipitation with best chances in higher elevations.
The snow level with range between 1500 and 2500 feet through
Saturday with snow in the higher elevations above 1500 feet,
Saturday night the snow level will drop to near the valley floors,
but not much snow expected for the lower elevations due to a
decrease in moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 to 2: This afternoon
through Saturday night)...

A deepening storm force low will move across the Bering north of
the Pribilof Islands towards Nunivak Island tonight. This will
spread high winds across the eastern Aleutians and the AKPEN this
afternoon through tomorrow afternoon (see the high wind warnings
for more details). Friday afternoon the low will move into
Southwest Alaska with storm force winds south of the low near the
AKPEN and slowly weakening to Gales by Friday evening and these
will gradually weaken by Saturday night. A gale force low is
expected to move across the western and central Aleutians on
Saturday and move into the Bering Saturday afternoon. There is a
chance for some storm force winds near the western and central
Aleutians Saturday, but there is some uncertainty in this.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday)...

Bering Sea:
A wind-wrapped low in the Bering Sea spreads high-end gales
across the Bering Sea and westerly gale force winds along the
Aleutians for Sunday morning. This low tracks north of Bristol Bay
Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning, spreading westerly gale
force winds across Bristol Bay for late Monday night, diminishing
Tuesday. Seas to 18 feet across the Bering Sea along the
Aleutians, subsiding Tuesday. A strong, wind-wrapped North Pacific
low approaches the western Aleutians early Monday morning and
moves into the Bering Sea through Tuesday morning. This low
spreads southwesterly storm force winds south of the Aleutians
Monday morning through Tuesday morning, and high-end gales across
the entire Bering Sea Monday night through Tuesday morning. Seas
building to 23 feet south of the Aleutians through Tuesday
morning.

Gulf of Alaska:
Strong westerly gales across the Gulf and northwesterly gale
force gap winds through the Barren Islands Sunday morning,
diminishing Sunday afternoon. Seas to 21 feet spread across the
Gulf, diminishing Sunday afternoon. A well-developed low moves
into the Gulf Monday morning and strengthens through Tuesday
morning. This low spreads storm force winds across the southern
Gulf and southeasterly storm force winds along the East Gulf Coast
Monday night through Tuesday morning. Seas to 19 feet across the
southern Gulf for Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

The storm track appears to shift southward next week, with fewer
impacts on the mainland than this weekend. On Monday, a weakening
occluded low tracks eastward into Southwest Alaska, with light to
moderate precipitation expected there, diminishing through Tuesday.
To the southeast, a triple point low develops in the southern
Gulf, bringing rain to Kodiak Island and gusty winds through gaps
and passes along the AKPen in the lee of the cyclone Monday and
Monday night. Model guidance has trended south and eastward with
this system, tracking the system further from the mainland into
the eastern Gulf on Tuesday, however the possibility of gusty wind
and precipitation along the north Gulf coast remain possible with
this system as some uncertainty in the track of the low remains.
Another low moves into the western Bering on Monday. This low
traverses the Bering quickly, crossing into the Gulf near Kodiak
by Wednesday. Supported by a weak shortwave aloft, the system
remains elongated with the bulk of its rain remaining south of the
low center, confining rainfall primarily to the Aleutians, AKPen,
and Kodiak Island, though there is some uncertainty in the track
of the low. By Wednesday, a tight pressure gradient between the
low in the Gulf and ridging in the Bering has the potential to
produce gusty gap winds through the AKPen and eastern Aleutians
once again.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 181 185.
MARINE...Storm Warning 155 165 170 171 179 180.
 Gale Warning 132 138 150 160 172 173 174 175 176 177 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RC
MARINE/LONG TERM...KZ/CQ