Brisk Wind Advisory 22, NWS Anchorage, AK

477 
FZAK51 PAFC 170035
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
335 PM AKST Tue Feb 16 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-171300-
335 PM AKST Tue Feb 16 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front enters the Western Gulf Tue afternoon, then moves to the 
north Gulf Coast and Central Gulf Wed morning. The front then 
remains nearly stationary over the Central Gulf through Thurs 
morning. A 967 mb low 140 nm southwest of Sitka Thu morning moves to 
100 nm west of Sitka at 966 mb Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-171300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
335 PM AKST Tue Feb 16 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 10
ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 
ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ120-171300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
335 PM AKST Tue Feb 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
Rain and snow.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ121-171300-
Resurrection Bay-
335 PM AKST Tue Feb 16 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-171300-
Prince William Sound-
335 PM AKST Tue Feb 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 
ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.WED...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-171300-
Port Valdez-
335 PM AKST Tue Feb 16 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-171300-
Valdez Narrows-
335 PM AKST Tue Feb 16 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-171300-
Valdez Arm-
335 PM AKST Tue Feb 16 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-171300-
Passage Canal-
335 PM AKST Tue Feb 16 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-171300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
335 PM AKST Tue Feb 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ131-171300-
Barren Islands East-
335 PM AKST Tue Feb 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ132-171300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
335 PM AKST Tue Feb 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.WED...Varaible wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after 
midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ136-171300-
Chiniak Bay-
335 PM AKST Tue Feb 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-171300-
Marmot Bay-
335 PM AKST Tue Feb 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-171300-
Shelikof Strait-
335 PM AKST Tue Feb 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the 
afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-171300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
335 PM AKST Tue Feb 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. Rain and snow.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the
afternoon. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-171300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
335 PM AKST Tue Feb 16 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt.
.THU...N wind 10 kt.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-171300-
Kachemak Bay-
335 PM AKST Tue Feb 16 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
508 PM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A large low over the Southern Bering, roughly between Atka and
Nikolski is the primary weather feature of note this afternoon.
With that said, besides its sprawling size, influencing the
entirety of the Bering, impacts from this low are minimal. Pieces
of energy circulating east of the low will be what brings somewhat
more impactful weather to Southcentral. The first of such is
moving into the Southern Cook Inlet, with associated snow
starting along the Southern Kenai Peninsula. The widespread cloud
cover is largely helping warm temperatures quite a bit as
compared with previous days, with Anchorage and the Mat-Su with
temperatures around 20, above freezing temperatures from Homer and
Kodiak west across coastal Bristol Bay, and temps near 20 along
the Kuskokwim River. The Copper River Basin remains the cold spot,
and one of the few relatively clear ones as well with
temperatures still below zero.

In the upper levels, weak ridging is over the Cook Inlet region,
which extends ahead of the disturbance over the Southern Cook
Inlet. The sprawling vertically stacked low encompasses nearly all
of the Bering, but the associated trough digs south of 30N.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model agreement is decent through Wednesday afternoon. Some
discrepancies remain, though are significantly improved from
previous days regarding the general snowfall forecast for
Anchorage and the Mat-Su tonight into Tuesday morning. This has
helped narrow down when the heaviest snowfall rates are expected
into Tuesday morning. Agreement is also improving for the next
heavier round of precipitation for Southcentral starting Tuesday
night and persisting through Wednesday. Heavier amounts of snow,
especially through the Kenai and the Chugach mountains around
Prince William Sound are expected. Some of that moisture may inch
back to the west by Wednesday night, bringing another chance of
snow for Anchorage and the surrounding areas. Unfortunately by
this point the model agreement diminishes a fair bit, so
confidence and especially timing on that snowfall is highly
subject to change. Overall forecast confidence is about average.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through this
evening. Around midnight, snow moves in with a weak upper level
disturbance bringing some moisture into the area along with
upslope. The heaviest of the snow may be during the Tuesday
morning commute, with potential temporary reductions in
visibility to a half mile at times. Conditions will improve midday
but with a lack of much wind to scour out the atmospheric moisture,
MVFR conditions to persist into Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday Afternoon)...

An active pattern is expected over the next several days. An
upper shortwave will move a weak low and its associated front
northward this evening. Weak southwesterly flow aloft over Cook
Inlet will allow widespread precipitation across Anchorage and
the Mat-Su. Average model QPF has slightly increased from
previous model runs. Likewise, the snow growth layer is centered
around 750 mb, at which the temperature is around -14C. Given the
aforementioned lighter winds between this level and the surface,
a potential 20:1 snow-to-liquid ratio appears likely. As such,
around 3 inches are expected in Anchorage with up to 5 inches
possible in the Mat-Su. Higher amounts are possible, with up to a
foot in Hatcher Pass. Minor accumulations are also expected in
Valdez and along the Gulf Coast.

A long, southerly fetch of moisture will overspread the Gulf Coast
beginning Tuesday night. This will be a predominately coastal
event with heavy snow likely across higher elevations. As usual,
there is still some uncertainty regarding precipitation types with
mixing possible by Wednesday evening as warmer air lifts
northward. Winds will not be overly strong, though blowing snow
remains possible through terrain gaps. A slight shift in the
precipitation field will lead to higher amounts farther inland
over the Kenai Peninsula, however much of the Western Kenai,
Anchorage and the Mat-Su look to remain downsloped and thus mostly
dry. The orientation of the flow will also determine snowfall
amounts between Moose Pass and Seward. Stronger easterly flow will
bring lower amounts while a more southerly flow will lead to
higher amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A relatively quiet weather pattern is expected for Southwest
Alaska as offshore flow continues to persist across the area. The
best chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning as a wave of upper level energy moves northward across the
area. The offshore flow will help keep the cold air in place
across the Kuskokwim Valley and much of Bristol Bay and thus the
dominant precipitation type will be snow. There is a chance of
some rain mixing in along the coastal locations in Bristol Bay. A
better chance of rain mixing in exists across the AKPEN,
especially in locations farther to the south and west.
Accumulations of 1-3" are expected across the area with the higher
amounts in that range being mainly in the Ahklun, Kilbuck and
Kuskokwim Mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The overall weather pattern will become quieter over the next 1-2
days as the currently low in the central Bering continues to
weaken. This low will weaken because it is veritcally stacked as
well as it is significantly decoupled from the core of the
jetstream which is to the far southeast and thus there is less
synoptic scale forcing for cyclonic rotation due to less wind
speed differences between the southeast and northwest flanks of
this low in the mid and upper levels. A front will enter the
Western Bering/Aleutians Thursday morning and continue eastward
through the Central Bering/Aleutians by Thursday night.
Widespread gale force winds are expected with this front with
locally higher winds in areas prone to funneling from the south.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Thursday through Saturday)...

Bering Sea: Storm track is expected to continue across the
Southern Bering Sea as another high end gale force system with
high seas moves through the above time period. As a result, heavy
freezing spray is expected to continue during this time frame near
the ice edge.

Gulf of Alaska: Storm track through the above time period is
expected to keep the low pressure systems across the Eastern Gulf
and into Southeast Alaska. As a result, expect mainly small craft
advisory winds and wave heights no higher than 20 feet through
the above time period for the Western Gulf. Stronger winds to
gale force are possible through the typical Barren Islands area in
the Thursday evening to Friday time period.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The long term forecast period pattern resembles an Arctic
trough/low pressure extending from the Arctic Ocean southwestward
across much of the Alaska Mainland. With this strong Arctic high
in place, the jet stream is expected to remain generally south of
the Alaska Mainland over the North Pacific during the time frame
above. This will keep the storm track progressive from west to
east across the Aleutian Island Chain and through the Southern
Bering keeping the weather active for those areas. For the Alaska
Mainland, cold air is expected to dominate much of the period as
the Arctic trough holds strong. This means much colder than normal
temperatures for this time period with outflow winds for
Southcentral. However, there remains discrepancies on the
individual storms and subtle upper level shortwaves that may try
and come northward to bring some snow to Southcentral areas. This
will largely be determined by the strength of the Arctic trough to
the north. If it is stronger it would most likely suppress
everything southward and keep the system offshore and keep
Southcentral even colder whereas if its weaker some of these
features might try to come northward and bring some snow to
Southcentral and keep it warmer.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES: 175 176 412 413 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY: 180 181 185 412 414.
         MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT: 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ED
MARINE/LONG TERM...MV