Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
844 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Made a few minor adjustments to the forecast for the overnight
period. Not sure about late night convection given lack of a
focusing LLJ. HRRR, however, continues to be adamant that some
convection is possible overnight into Sunday morning south of the
US212 corridor, so will maintain pops.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Mid level warm advection resulting in elevated convection this
afternoon across central South Dakota, while a surface trough
continues to move slowly south, with surface winds predominantly
northerly with the exception of far southeast counties. Low level
dry air will be with us through the overnight into early Monday,
however flow at 700mb out of the west continues to support weak warm
advection, with steep lapse rates aloft. There is also a moist layer
trapped between 700-800mb and those ingredients could once again
come together to generate early morning convection. The NAM also
suggests a little better convergence associated with a subtle 30kt
low level jet from the southwest pointed into central/south central
South Dakota, which CAMS translate into an arc of convection,
lending confidence to a repeat occurrence of morning convection. High
pressure moves east Tuesday with low level easterly flow keeping us
warm and dry. Then the next question is will we will do it again
Tuesday morning despite increasing heights and a higher amplitude
ridge across western South Dakota. The lingering 700mb moisture
remains, and we will continue with the 700mb warm advection. Less
low level jet support, but NAM profiles are similar with elevated
CAPE generated between the mild 700mb air and steep lapse rates
above.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Models and ensembles show the weather pattern making a change from
Tuesday through Thursday and remaining through the weekend. The long
term starts out with a sharp upper level ridge over the central and
northern plains and into central Canada with a large upper level low
pressure trough off the Pacific Northwest coast. This trough will
move into western Canada and then east through Thursday. As a
result, the upper ridge over the central U.S./central Canada will be
knocked down with an upper level high pressure area setting up over
the southwest U.S. into the weekend. With this transition, expect
two more hot days across our cwa for Tuesday and Wednesday with a
cool down for Thursday remaining into the weekend as the upper level
flow over our region becomes west to northwest. Highs mainly in the
90s to around 100 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to
be in the upper 70s to the upper 80s for Thursday through Sunday.
During the transition from hot to the cool down, a boundary coming
across the region will bring chances of thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday. The next chances of storms dont appear
until Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR skies/vsbys are expected at all terminals through tonight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...TDK

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
850 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-141400-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-
850 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021 /750 AM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota, north
central South Dakota and northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SDZ033>037-045-048-051-141400-
Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
850 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021 /750 AM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur across
portions of central South Dakota through the morning, and possibly
into the afternoon hours. A few storms may produce small hail and
frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

TMT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1026 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

SDZ045-048-140345-
Lyman SD-Jones SD-
1026 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JONES AND WEST
CENTRAL LYMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

At 1026 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Draper, or 13 miles northeast of Murdo, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Draper.

LAT...LON 4397 10060 4412 10050 4403 10024 4381 10040
TIME...MOT...LOC 0326Z 304DEG 24KT 4399 10046

TDK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1035 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

SDZ048-140400-
Lyman SD-
1035 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL LYMAN COUNTY UNTIL
1100 PM CDT...

At 1035 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
5 Mile Corner, or near Presho, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Presho, Vivian, Earling Hill, Fate Dam, 5 Mile Corner and western
Lower Brule Reservation.

LAT...LON 4389 10030 4406 10022 4402 9994 4381 10001
TIME...MOT...LOC 0335Z 288DEG 18KT 4396 10017

TDK