Snow Squall Warning 8, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
431 AM MST Wed Dec 15 2021

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Upper trough and associated cold front to pass rapidly west to east
over NM. Line of tstms with wind gusts to around 50kt and IFR
cigs/vsbys in sn and fzfg obscuring mts stretched from Navajo Dam to
Fence Lake at 1130Z to continue tracking into the RGV by 13Z.
Precipitation to diminish as the frontal boundary and trough axis
pass over the central mt chain but wind gusts to 50 kt or greater to
spread over central and ern NM, leading to reduced vsbys in bldu over
ern NM. Winds to taper off by 22Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MST Wed Dec 15 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
A potent storm system arrives today, bringing multiple hazards to the
area. The biggest impact will be the high winds which will rapidly
increase through the morning hours. Very strong winds will be felt
areawide with the highest gusts to near 70 mph across the eastern
plains. This may also lead to areas of reduced visibility due to
blowing dust. Snow with this system will mainly be relegated to the
western and northern mountains, and likewise, reduced visibility will
be possible is areas of blowing snow. Finally, high fire danger is
expected across the northeast and east central plains due to the
combination of high winds and very dry conditions. Winds will taper
off late this evening with much quieter conditions expected Thursday
and through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
Current wind and snow highlights generally on track and no changes
at this time. Although the wind has been slow to ramp up tonight,
there are signs it's coming, with a maximum of 3 hourly surface
pressure falls of 4-5 mb stretching from near Gallup into
southwest/south central CO as of 2 AM. Winds should diminish shortly
after sunset this evening for most areas along with any
precipitation.

Highs today will still be about 10 to 20 degrees warmer than normal
east of the Pecos Valley. Lows tonight will be near or above normal
for most locales along and south of I-40 and east of I-25. Thursday
will be dry and a few degrees warmer than normal with afternoon
breezes over the northeast quadrant of the state.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
By Thursday night, an upper-level trough begins to approach from the
west. Models continue to be fairly consistent with the track of this
system eastward over the central Rockies and a piece of energy
separating itself and digging southward into AZ on Saturday. Models
also continue to show it developing into a closed low over southern
AZ or northern Mexico where it taps into subtropical moisture. The
closed low then weakens into an open wave once again as it tracks
eastward over southern NM on Sunday. However, the trend with each
model run continues to be drier with the latest guidance this morning
steering the moisture through northern Mexico and then into central
TX. It's still possible for a few light showers across southern NM,
but current thinking is that any shower activity looks to remain in
WFO EPZ's or MAF's areas. Thus, continued to decrease PoPs this
weekend, and essentially removed even the 10% area except over
extreme southwest Chaves County. Otherwise, it should be a nice
weekend for the area. Temperatures do cool on Saturday behind a
backdoor cold front, but will quickly rebound on Sunday.

That system exits late Sunday with a ridge of high pressure following
it on Monday. The next storm system then looks to position itself off
the PacNW coast by early Wednesday. Southwest flow ahead of this
looks to tap into a plume of subtropical moisture, potentially
leading to increased showers by the middle of the week.

15

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY FOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS...

Red flag warning for the Northeast and East Central Plains still on
track for late this morning through about sunset. Wetting showers
over western and central New Mexico associated with the incoming
cold front and upper trough will diminish by midday today. The best
accumulating snow is expected over the Tusas/San Juan mountains.

Localized critical fire weather conditions for 1-3 hours are
possible Thursday afternoon over the Northeast Plains. Another cold
front and weak upper trough are possible late this week, but don't
appear to offer much precipitation. Cooler air and gusty but
moderate west and northerly winds are more likely. Widespread fair
to poor ventilation forecast Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for the following
zones... NMZ201-203-204-207-209.

High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ212>216-221>224-226.

High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST this morning for the following
zones... NMZ202-205-206-208-211-241.

Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ217>220-225.

High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ227>235-237-239-240.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon
for the following zones... NMZ104-108.

Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ236-238.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST this morning for the following
zones... NMZ210.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
559 AM MST WED DEC 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0549 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSE CLINES CORNERS    35.00N 105.66W
12/15/2021  M59 MPH          TORRANCE           NM   ASOS

            KCQC ASOS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ202102639

99

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
605 AM MST WED DEC 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NE LAS VEGAS          35.66N 105.14W
12/15/2021  M62 MPH          SAN MIGUEL         NM   ASOS

            KLVS ASOS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ202102640

99

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
607 AM MST WED DEC 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S ARROYO HONDO        36.46N 105.67W
12/15/2021  M61 MPH          TAOS               NM   AWOS

            KSKX AWOS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ202102642

99

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
620 AM MST WED DEC 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNE LA CIENEGA        35.60N 106.11W
12/15/2021  M70 MPH          SANTA FE           NM   ASOS

            KTCC ASOS.... KSAF ASOS.... KSAF ASOS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ202102643

99

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
626 AM MST WED DEC 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  5 S ARROYO HONDO        36.46N 105.67W
12/15/2021  M54 MPH          TAOS               NM   AWOS

            KSKX AWOS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ202102644

99

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
628 AM MST WED DEC 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNW ANGEL FIRE        36.42N 105.29W
12/15/2021  M60 MPH          COLFAX             NM   AWOS

            KAXX AWOS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ202102645

99