Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Tucson, AZ

833 
WWUS85 KTWC 080934
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
234 AM MST Mon Jun 8 2020

AZZ152-153-090200-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0004.200608T1800Z-200609T0200Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Southern Greenlee County-Central and Eastern Cochise County-
Southern Graham County-Southern San Carlos Apache Nation-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153
Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County-
White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF-SDC-
234 AM MST Mon Jun 8 2020

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING 
TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST 
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 153 AND 
much of 152...

* AFFECTED AREA...All of Fire Weather Zone 153 and the eastern 
  half of Fire Weather Zone 152. 

* TIMING...11 am MST this morning through 7 pm MST this evening.

* WINDS...West to Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 
  mph developing this afternoon with peak speeds between 2 and 6 
  pm. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...7 to 12 percent in the valleys and 10 to
  17 percent across high terrain. 

* IMPACTS...Any ongoing or new fires will have the potential to
  spread rapidly and/or have extended spotting distances. 

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...Visit 
  weather.gov/Tucson and click on the Detailed Hazards Icon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are expected to develop. A
combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and dry
vegetation will create the potential for rapid and erratic fire
growth.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Red Flag Warning for portions of Southeast Arizona.

&&

$$

Cerniglia
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719 
WWUS85 KTWC 090154
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
654 PM MST Mon Jun 8 2020


AZZ152-153-090300-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200609T0200Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Southern Greenlee County-Central and Eastern Cochise County-
Southern Graham County-Southern San Carlos Apache Nation-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153
Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County-
White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF-SDC-
654 PM MST Mon Jun 8 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 153 AND MUCH OF 152...

Breezy winds will still remain this evening with poor relative
humidity recovery tonight as a very dry airmass moves in.

$$


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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
337 AM MST Sun Jun 7 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler weather with some afternoon breezes will
persist through Tuesday, before southeastern Arizona starts
heating back up.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Clear skies across southeastern Arizona this
morning. This will lead to another sunny and pleasant day for the
region. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below average, with
breezy conditions.

The main story in the short term is several wildfires burning
across the region with abundant smoke production. With surface
and transport winds favoring a southwest to westerly direction,
smoke from these fires will be lofted and transported toward the
northeast. Smoke modeling shows active smoke columns moving
northeast into NM. Each morning, smoke will settle into the lower
valleys around fire locations. The higher impacts from smoke will
be from the Bighorn and Tortolita Fires. Forecast models suggest
at least patchy smoke with some areas of smoke likely this
morning and Monday morning. Although there are no official air
quality stations capturing the smoke, at least some smoke impacts
are likely. By later morning, smoke will lift out of the area,
before settling again in valleys overnight. If you are an
individual sensitive to air pollutants and smoke, delaying or
canceling morning activities may be best.

The cooler weather we have been seeing will continue through at
least Tuesday, before things start to heat back up. Lower deserts
will be back in the 100-107 range by Wednesday and persisting
through the forecast period.

Moisture will try and seep into SE AZ and for areas along the
AZ/NM border by Thursday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be possible, however confidence continues to be marginal at this
time. Moisture extent will depend on how trofing evolves over the
western US and the strength and placement of the building high
pressure.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 08/12Z.
Generally clear skies except for areas of smoke near or downwind
(mostly east) of wildfires vicinity KTUS. Light SFC wind becoming
SWLY/WLY SFC wind at 13-20 kts and gusts around 30 kts late this
morning through this afternoon and easing to light again overnight
tonight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and breezy this afternoon with very low Haines
values. Compared to yesterday, winds will be just a bit stronger
most areas this afternoon with slightly higher min RH values. Fire
weather conditions will be elevated, but not expecting widespread
critical conditions. That said, there may be brief and local
critical conditions across higher elevations/higher ridges during
peak heating.

Monday will be another breezy day with lower RH levels in the
afternoon from Benson westward. Winds west of Benson will be
similar to today with elevated fire weather conditions. Further
east, winds will be a bit stronger and a Fire Weather Watch has
been issued for zone 153 and the eastern half of 152 as a result.

Tuesday into Friday winds will be lighter although it will be dry
with increasing heat.  Also Haines 6 conditions will begin to appear
Wednesday onward east of Tucson during the afternoon and evening
hours. The only threat of precipitation/thunderstorms is a slight
chance over the White Mountains each afternoon/evening from Thursday
onward through the weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for AZZ152-153.

&&

Public...Michael
Aviation...Cerniglia
Fire Weather....Cerniglia

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