Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Tulsa, OK

873 
WGUS74 KTSA 280342
FFSTSA

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1042 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

OKC079-280500-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-200828T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Le Flore OK-
1042 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT 
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTY...

At 1042 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated that the heavy rain had 
ended, while scattered light to moderate rain continued across the 
warned area. Radar estimates of 2 and 3 inches of rain have fallen 
over the past couple of hours for portions of the warned area. Flash 
flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other
         drainage and low lying areas.

Some locations that may experience flash flooding include...
  Big Cedar...                       Octavia...
Hodgen...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3451 9472 3460 9474 3485 9470 3493 9445
      3451 9446

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

772 
WGUS74 KTSA 280458
FFSTSA

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1158 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

OKC079-280508-
/O.EXP.KTSA.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-200828T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Le Flore OK-
1158 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR 
SOUTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended with only a few lingering showers. Flooding 
is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any 
remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3451 9472 3460 9474 3485 9470 3493 9445
      3451 9446

$$

RBD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
637 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Northwest Arkansas...
Rain showers and breezy northerly winds will remain possible this
evening as the remnants of tropical system Laura move off to the
east northeast. VFR conditions are forecast this evening.
However...there is potential for MVFR conditions to develop behind
the exiting precip and weakening westerly winds late tonight into
early Friday morning. By mid/late morning Friday...westerly winds
and scattered high clouds are forecast.

Eastern Oklahoma...
Broken to overcast high clouds will remain possible this evening
before scattering out as the remnants of tropical system Laura
exit the region. During the day Friday...variable winds from
overnight look to become more southerly with mostly clear to some
passing high clouds forecast. VFR conditions should persist
through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 231 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Widespread light to moderate rain has spread into western AR and
portions of SE OK on the western periphery of Laura.
Further westward a band of numerous showers and storms has been
maintained on the periphery of the thicker cirrus shield and in
proximity to the mid level trough axis. The more westward
convection is expected to wane with loss of heating while rain
chances remain higher further east as Laura tracks northeastward
through the overnight hours. Additional rainfall amounts from SE
OK through western AR are not expected to cause impacts and Laura
will lose influence on the fcst area by early Friday.

Hot and humid conditions will build across the region Friday and
Saturday with heat advisory headlines possible especially by
Saturday along and ahead of a weak frontal boundary.

A corridor of strong instability is expected to develop Saturday
afternoon along the slow moving frontal zone with some storm
potential by late afternoon. A more likely scenario is storms
expand north of the sfc front Saturday evening growing upscale
and tracking eastward Sat night into Sunday morning. Strengthening
mid level flow and an increasing low level jet amidst sufficient
instability are likely to warrant both severe weather and heavy
rainfall potential.

The convectively reinforced boundary will be instrumental in fcst
periods beyond Saturday and storm chances continue into Monday
within the prevailing W-NW upper flow. A stronger cold front
remains possible by Tues-Wed time frame bringing another chance of
rain followed by cooler and drier conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  97  74  94 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   71  93  72  97 /  70  10   0  20
MLC   70  96  75  96 /  20   0   0  20
BVO   68  95  72  89 /   0   0  10  20
FYV   68  90  70  93 /  50  10   0  20
BYV   70  91  70  96 /  60  20   0  20
MKO   70  93  73  93 /  20   0   0  20
MIO   69  93  72  91 /  10   0  10  20
F10   68  96  72  95 /  10   0   0  20
HHW   70  95  75  98 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
459 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
459 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly far Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest and West
           Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue across
mainly far eastern Oklahoma and west central into northwest
Arkansas into tonight. With the tropical moisture in place, these
showers will produce locally heavy downpours. Some isolated
flooding could be possible across the far eastern fringes of the
forecast area as continued showers move over the region through
much of the night. The main threat for any kind of severe weather
should remain out of the forecast area for tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Lingering showers will likely be ongoing Friday morning across
portions of far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, with
decreasing chances from west to east through the day as Laura's
remnants move out of the area.

An active weather pattern will remain across the region, with
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected through the
weekend and much of next week. Isolated severe weather and locally
heavy rain could occur with some of this activity.

In addition to the thunderstorm threats, hot and humid conditions
will prevail Friday and Saturday, with triple digit heat index
values likely across at least a portion of the area both days. A
cold front late Saturday and into Sunday will bring cooler
conditions to close out the weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.