Rip Current Statement 45, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1037 AM EDT Sun May 24 2020

.UPDATE...

No wholesale changes needed at this time. CAMs hold off on
developing storms till mid afternoon through mid evening. Partly
cloudy skies will be the norm till then as high clouds stream in
from the Gulf.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [608 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Today Through Tonight]...

Over the next 24 hours, upper level ridging will gradually weaken
across the area as a trough develops across the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Deep moisture and afternoon heating look sufficient for
isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms across the area with
PoPs ranging from 20-50%. Afternoon high temperatures will generally
range from the upper 80s to lower 90s. The HRRR, RAP, NAM, and GFS
all forecast DCAPE values generally in the 700-1000 j/kg range this
afternoon, so a few stronger storms with gusty winds are possible,
i.e. a typical summer day.

.SHORT TERM [Tomorrow Through Tuesday]...

In the upper levels, a deep trough will be over the Central U.S. and
a ridge will be over the Northeast U.S. At the surface, a weak
pressure gradient will be in place with easterly low level flow.
POPs will be elevated with deep layer moisture in place and possibly
a weak low over the Gulf. POPs will be 40 to 70 percent tomorrow
through Tuesday. Increased cloud cover may help squash instability
and keep chances for severe storms lower than a typical summer day.
Highs will be in the 80s. Lows in the upper 60s.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

In the upper levels, a cut-off low will linger over Eastern Texas.
At the surface, a weak pressure gradient will be over the region
with a weak low near TX/LA. A wet pattern will be in place due to
deep layer moisture with southerly flow in the lower, mid and upper
levels of the atmosphere. The best chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will
be in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

.AVIATION...

[Through 12z Monday] Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period. Isolated to scattered convection is possible
this afternoon, but the chance of a storm at any one TAF site
looks fairly low at this time.

.MARINE...

Easterly winds will increase slightly tomorrow. Winds will become
light and southerly on Tuesday and remain light and southerly
through the workweek. A wet pattern will be in place this week.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

.HYDROLOGY...

Local rivers are mostly steady. A wet pattern will be in place this
week with 1 to 2 inches of rain expected over the next seven days.
There are no flooding concerns at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   92  71  81  67  86 /  30  30  60  50  60
Panama City   89  72  81  70  84 /  30  30  50  50  40
Dothan        90  69  82  67  81 /  30  40  40  50  60
Albany        92  72  83  68  81 /  30  30  50  50  70
Valdosta      92  70  82  67  83 /  20  20  60  50  70
Cross City    92  70  79  67  86 /  40  30  70  60  60
Apalachicola  84  73  80  70  83 /  20  40  60  50  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...Scholl
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...McD
LONG TERM...McD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...McD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...McD