Rip Current Statement 35, NWS Tallahassee, FL

418 
WHUS42 KTAE 231135
CFWTAE

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
735 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2020

FLZ115-232000-
/O.NEW.KTAE.CF.Y.0002.200423T1200Z-200424T0900Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.RP.S.0035.000000T0000Z-200424T0600Z/
Coastal Franklin-
735 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2020

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, minor coastal flooding up
  to 2 feet expected. For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous 
  rip currents.

* WHERE...Coastal Franklin County.

* WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 5 AM EDT Friday. 
  For the High Rip Current Risk, through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, flooding of lots,
  parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. For
  the high risk of rip currents, rip currents can sweep even the 
  best swimmers away from shore into deeper water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest water levels through the
  duration of this advisory will likely occur this afternoon with
  high tide.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current, relax and
float. Don't swim against the current. If able, swim in a
direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the
shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

FLZ118-127-128-134-232000-
/O.NEW.KTAE.CF.Y.0002.200423T1200Z-200424T0900Z/
Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Dixie-
735 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2020

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Minor coastal flooding up to 2 feet expected.

* WHERE...Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Wakulla, Coastal Taylor and 
  Coastal Dixie Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only 
  isolated road closures expected.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest water levels through the
  duration of this advisory will likely occur this afternoon with
  high tide.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

$$

FLZ108-112-114-232000-
/O.CON.KTAE.RP.S.0035.000000T0000Z-200424T0600Z/
South Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-
735 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2020 /635 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020/

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents expected.

* WHERE...Walton, Bay, Gulf, and Franklin County Beaches.

* WHEN...From 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Thursday through late Thursday 
  night.

* IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away 
  from shore into deeper water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current, relax and
float. Don't swim against the current. If able, swim in a
direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the
shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
404 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2020

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAy...

.NEAR TERM [through Tonight]...

Relatively quiet conditions expected through the near term as the
region will be under a rapid transition period as a surface high
over the eastern US continues east. Surface flow, mostly easterly
and southeasterly today, is expected to increase quickly overnight
tonight from the south as a deepening area of low pressure over
the central US tightens the pressure gradient over the region. A
warm front is expected to lift north through the area in
association with a weak disturbance passing overhead tonight. A
few showers/storms can't be ruled out, but much of this activity
is expected to remain north of the region. No severe weather is
expected with this activity.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday through Friday night]...

The big weather story for the region will be tomorrow as
widespread severe weather is expected. Currently SPC has the
entire forecast area outlined in an enhanced risk for severe
weather (level 3 of 5). The early morning (before 6am) is
expected to start out mostly free from showers and storms but this
is expected to quickly change through the rest of the morning as
strong moisture advection from the south and quickly increasing
instability move in as a strong upper level disturbance pushes
east. We're also watching the potential for strong/severe storms
beginning in the morning hours to our north.

Do want to make a point that the spread in hi-res guidance for
tomorrow is quite large, and the potential outcomes for severe
weather are quite diverse. Morning convection at the start of the
period to our west will likely have strong implications on how we
see conditions develop in the afternoon period as it moves east
through our northern regions. Regardless of how this morning
convection influences the forecast, ingredients are there to
support widespread severe thunderstorms, especially in the
afternoon hours as instability grows south of a warm front that
will be draped across the region. Low level shear will be plenty
sufficient in the warm sector to support strong tornadoes in any
discrete cells that develop. As the activity to our west begins
to merge through the afternoon a damaging wind event in the form
of straight line winds is likely. The possibility is also there
for strong embedded tornadoes along a squall line that develops.
Tornadoes that form along these lines can develop quickly.

The overnight Thursday severe threat is still somewhat uncertain
and will depend largely how convection develops through the day
Thursday. There is a possibility additional strong/severe storms
could develop overnight into Friday, but at this time that
outcome is difficult to discern. The upper level disturbances
responsible for the severe weather move out Friday evening
bringing an end to much of the severe storms, though one last
round of strong storms can't be ruled out Saturday in the far
southeast Big Bend.

...Key Points...
1. Atmospheric ingredients support a threat for widespread severe
storms tomorrow into early Friday.

2. While uncertainty is large, that should not deter action to
prepare today as all locations in our forecast area are under an
enhanced risk, and will likely see some form of severe weather
Thursday.

3. Make it your mission to routinely check up on the weather every
hour tomorrow to watch how conditions develop. Be prepared to take
action as early as the late morning, or the late evening hours.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

Saturday, a second quick moving system is expected to move through
the Tennessee valley, which will lead to the potential for isolated
thunderstorms across our region. Greater uncertainty still exists
with this system as it interacts with the stalled front across the
Florida Big Bend. Beyond Saturday, quiet weather returns for the
region under stable northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Thursday]

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the overnight hours
and into the early morning. Only aviation hazard through the night
will be increased wind shear at some terminals as strong
southwesterly winds move into the region. Wind shear will reduce a
few hours after sunrise as stronger surface winds develop. Expect
MVFR conditions to move as low level clouds begin to move in.
Severe weather is possible later in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Boating conditions will continue to deteriorate over the next 24
hours as a seasonally strong low pressure system tracks north of our
region. Strong surface winds ahead of and along the cold front
associated with the aforementioned surface low will bring with
produce seas to around 4-6 feet occasionally up to 8 feet.
Widespread to numerous thunderstorms are expected during the day
Thursday ahead of and along the cold front. Advisory level
conditions will likely be needed for Thursday. In the meantime,
near cautionary conditions are expected this evening with a
build-up to near advisory level conditions overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The next low pressure system to affect the area will arrive
Thursday. Stronger transport winds ahead of the cold front will lead
to high dispersion values through Friday. Showers and thunderstorms,
some strong to severe, are expected Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Area rivers and creeks continue to rise across the Apalachicola,
Chattahoochee, and Flint basins. Increased releases from WF George
will keep the Chattahoochee River near minor flood stage through at
least Wednesday evening before releases begin to decrease.
Conditions on the Middle Flint are not as high as previously
expected, thus releases out of Lake Blackshear may end up being
lower later this week than expected, thus it is possible that Albany
and Newton stay just below minor flood stage. However, all the water
moving through the Chattahoochee and Flint Basins will lead to minor
flooding throughout the Apalachicola River over the coming days.

The next storm system to affect the region will arrive on Thursday.
Generally, 2-4 inches of rain is expected with this system. These
amounts are higher than 24 hours ago and could lead to additional
rises on the Flint. Large uncertainty exists with this upcoming
system so it is important to note that a couple of inches of rain
above Dawson could push the Kinchafoonee Creek to the moderate
flood level. Additionally heavy rain north of Valdosta could lead
to minor flooding on the Withlacoochee River, given that the upper
portions of the Withlacoochee is still running above normal from
last week's rainfall.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   63  83  65  87  64 /  10  90  90  30  20
Panama City   68  80  68  82  68 /  10  90  80  20  10
Dothan        62  77  62  83  62 /  20 100  60  10  10
Albany        62  80  64  83  62 /  10  90  80  20  10
Valdosta      62  84  65  83  64 /  10  80  90  50  20
Cross City    63  86  68  83  66 /  10  60  90  80  30
Apalachicola  68  79  69  80  68 /  10  70  90  40  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM...Humphreys
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys
HYDROLOGY...Godsey/Dobbs