Alert archive / Louisiana / Tornado Watches in 2020

Tornado Watch 521

December 31, 202016 parishes in Louisiana; Newton County, Orange County, Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Dec 31, 2020, 1:27 PM CST for 16 parishes in Louisiana; Newton County, Orange County, Texas. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 31, 2020, 1:27 PM CST (19:27 UTC)
Expired
Dec 31, 2020, 9:00 PM CST
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt

Counties Acadia Parish, LA, Allen Parish, LA, Avoyelles Parish, LA, Beauregard Parish, LA, Calcasieu Parish, LA, Cameron Parish, LA, Evangeline Parish, LA, Iberia Parish, LA, Jefferson Davis Parish, LA, Lafayette Parish, LA, Rapides Parish, LA, Saint Landry Parish, LA, Saint Martin Parish, LA, St. Mary Parish, LA, Vermilion Parish, LA, Vernon Parish, LA, Newton County, TX, Orange County, TX

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
30%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
10%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Lake Charles Mun, LA (KLCH), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 37 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lake Charles Mun, LA at 12:00Z on 2020-12-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 238 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lake Charles Mun, LA at 12:00Z on 2020-12-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 181 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
238 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-8 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
492 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
181 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
209 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.2
Supercell composite
1.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

898 
WWUS20 KWNS 311919
SEL1  
SPC WW 311919
LAZ000-TXZ000-CWZ000-010300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 521
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
120 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southwest Louisiana
  Far southeast Texas
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until
  900 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Squall line across the northwest Gulf through southeast
Texas should advance north-northeast, with additional cells possible
ahead of it. Low-level shear is favorable for embedded supercells
capable of producing tornadoes in addition to damaging winds with
the line.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles south southwest of
Intracoastal City LA to 20 miles northeast of Fort Polk LA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 520...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 19030.

...Grams

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 31, 7:10 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalcasieu95 min
Dec 31, 11:21 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCameron114 min
Dec 31, 2:44 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron, Evangeline and 4 more2 hr
Dec 31, 3:30 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAscension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Jefferson and 13 more2 hr
Dec 30, 8:15 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrewster, Crane, Pecos, Presidio, Upton6 hr
Dec 31, 2:16 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrewster, Crane, Glasscock, Pecos, Reagan, Sterling and 2 more6 hr
Dec 31, 7:40 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCBrazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Hardin, Harris and 7 more7 hr
Dec 31, 9:09 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Baylor, Borden, Callahan, Childress, Clay and 39 more6 hr
Dec 31, 2:59 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaylor, Callahan, Coke, Cottle, Fisher, Foard and 16 more4 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Louisiana, 2020Tornado Watches in Texas, 2020Every tornado watch in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.