Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2020
Mesoscale Discussion 1237
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 15, 2020, 5:14 PM MDT for 5 states. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 15, 2020, 5:14 PM MDT (23:14 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 15, 2020, 7:15 PM MDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 375
All 44 counties
Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Cheyenne County, CO, Crowley County, CO, El Paso County, CO, Elbert County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Otero County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Pueblo County, CO, Grant County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Logan County, KS, Morton County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Colfax County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Harding County, NM, Mora County, NM, Quay County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Union County, NM, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Carson County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Moore County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Sherman County, TX
The radar
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 207 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 208 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 126 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -562 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1844 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 23 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 184 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 220 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
592 ACUS11 KWNS 152315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152314 KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-160115- Mesoscale Discussion 1237 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0614 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 Areas affected...Eastern CO...Eastern NM Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375... Valid 152314Z - 160115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375 continues. SUMMARY...Convection should spread east across the remainder of ww375 later this evening. Wind/hail remain possible. DISCUSSION...With the upper ridge remaining centered over TX, several weak disturbances, likely convectively enhanced, are rotating across northern Mexico into NM/CO. One such feature may be enhancing thunderstorm activity across southern CO that is now shifting east of the higher terrain. Another disturbance may be located along the AZ/NM border, and this appears partly responsible for upscale growth over NM. In both cases, boundary-layer heating is the primary driver, along with orographic forcing. Over the next few hours, convection should spread across the southwestern High Plains toward the NM/TX border, extending into southeast CO. This activity will likely persist well into the late-evening hours as LLJ is forecast to increase across the TX South Plains after sunset. Watch may be warranted later this evening downstream from parts of the TX Panhandle into southwest KS. ..Darrow.. 07/15/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 34590505 39420477 39310086 34570127 34590505
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 1:40 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baca, Bent, Crowley, Douglas, Elbert, El Paso and 6 more | 95 min |
| Jul 15, 2:25 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Baca, Bent, Cheyenne, Crowley, Elbert, El Paso and 7 more | 8 hr |
| Jul 14, 7:13 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barber, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Finney, Ford and 15 more | 7 hr |
| Jul 14, 8:24 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Finney, Grant, Gray, Hamilton, Haskell, Kearny and 5 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 14, 10:21 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ford, Gray and 11 more | 114 min |
| Jul 15, 12:07 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Butler, Chase, Geary, Greenwood, Harvey, Kingman and 6 more | 53 min |
| Jul 15, 12:25 AM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Chase, Dickinson, Harvey, Lyon, McPherson, Marion and 4 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2020Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2020Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2020Every mesoscale discussion in 2020
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.