Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2020
Mesoscale Discussion 1069
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 1, 2020, 9:55 AM CDT for 15 counties in Arkansas; 26 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 95 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 1, 2020, 9:55 AM CDT (14:55 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 1, 2020, 11:30 AM CDT
- In force
- 95 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 41 counties
Baxter County, AR, Clay County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Cross County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Greene County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Butler County, MO, Camden County, MO, Carter County, MO, Christian County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Dunklin County, MO, Greene County, MO, Howell County, MO, Iron County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Miller County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Texas County, MO, Wayne County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO
The radar
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 138 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 2.9 hours before the alert went out and 168 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2705 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -103 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 741 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 16 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 180 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 168 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 1.0
- Supercell composite
- 10.3
The text
As transmitted.
021
ACUS11 KWNS 011455
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011455
TNZ000-ARZ000-MOZ000-011630-
Mesoscale Discussion 1069
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0955 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2020
Areas affected...Southeast Missouri...northeast Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 011455Z - 011630Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Limited potential for damaging wind gusts exists for areas
downstream of ongoing south-central MO convection. Greatest risk
appears to be in northeast AR if convection is maintained. No WW is
currently expected. Trends will be monitored, however.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms moving southeastward into
south-central Missouri may pose some risk for isolated
strong/damaging wind gusts for another few hours. Overall,
convective trends have been down with IR satellite showing
contraction of the coldest cloud tops. With the 12Z LZK showing near
22 C at 850 mb and outflow from an overnight MCS to the east, the
potential for intensification appears limited. Should convection
maintain strength, the area of greatest risk for damaging wind gusts
will likely exist in northeast Arkansas where the strongest heating
will occur. Given the uncertainty, no WW is currently anticipated.
Trends will continue to be monitored this afternoon.
..Wendt/Hart.. 07/01/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 37809339 38259256 37919086 36578997 35479000 35219073
35459176 36709303 37359348 37809339SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1, 2:54 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Jackson, Lee, Mississippi and 3 more | 66 min |
| Jun 30, 11:25 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Andrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Clay, Clinton, Holt and 4 more | 7 hr |
| Jul 1, 1:48 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Holt, Nodaway | 87 min |
| Jul 1, 3:50 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrew, Buchanan, Clinton, DeKalb, Gentry, Nodaway and 1 more | 85 min |
| Jul 1, 5:40 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Caldwell, Camden, Carroll, Cass, Cedar and 21 more | 65 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2020Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2020Every mesoscale discussion in 2020
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.