Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Springfield, MO

022 
WWUS83 KSGF 190852 
RFWSGF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Springfield MO
252 AM CST Thu Nov 19 2020

MOZ056>058-069>071-080>082-090>092-095>097-102>105-200000-
/O.CON.KSGF.FW.W.0009.201119T1500Z-201120T0000Z/
Morgan-Miller-Maries-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Dallas-Laclede-Texas-
Greene-Webster-Wright-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Barry-Stone-Taney-
Ozark-
252 AM CST Thu Nov 19 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE 
WEATHER ZONES 056, 057, 058, 069, 070, 071, 080, 081, 082, 090, 
091, 092, 095, 096, 097, 102, 103, 104, AND 105...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Missouri...Fire weather zones 056, 057, 
  058, 069, 070, 071, 080, 081, 082, 090, 091, 092, 095, 096, 
  097, 102, 103, 104, and 105. 

* WIND...Southerly winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph with 
 gustsof 30 to 45 mph. 

* HUMIDITY...25 to 35 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
 Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Titus

230 
WWUS83 KSGF 200000
RFWSGF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Springfield MO
600 PM CST Thu Nov 19 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

MOZ056>058-069>071-080>082-090>092-095>097-102>105-200100-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-201120T0000Z/
Morgan-Miller-Maries-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Dallas-Laclede-Texas-
Greene-Webster-Wright-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Barry-Stone-Taney-
Ozark-
600 PM CST Thu Nov 19 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 056, 057, 
058, 069, 070, 071, 080, 081, 082, 090, 091, 092, 095, 096, 097, 
102, 103, 104, AND 105...

Wind speeds will continue to decrease through the evening and
tonight as relative humidity improves. Therefore, the Red Flag
Warning has been allowed to expire.

$$

Rothstein

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1138 PM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

...Updated for the 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

Red Flag Warning conditions continue this afternoon across
portions of southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri. Expect
southerly wind gusts to back off into the evening hours, but still
remaining breezy with occasional gusts. Overnight temperatures
will fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

By Thursday morning, winds will begin to increase and gust across
the Missouri Ozarks region. Expect southerly wind gusts of 30 to
45 mph through the morning into the afternoon. A few gusts may
exceed 45 mph. A wind advisory has been posted for Thursday from
6 in the morning through 6 in the evening. Impacts to travel may
be possible. Meanwhile, temperatures will climb into the lower
70s for most of the region. Additionally, there is a elevated fire
risk across portions of the region on Thursday afternoon. The
greatest potential for favorable fire conditions will exist along
and east of the Highway 65 corridor. Moisture return will be on
the horizon as we head into Thursday evening reducing the fire
risk.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

For Friday, temperatures will remain well above normal with highs
climbing back into the middle to upper 60s, with several locations
hitting 70. However, a noticeable change as we head into Friday
evening will be clouds building into the region ahead of the next
system.

By Saturday, temperatures will vary from north to south ahead of
the approaching system. Middle 50s will be found to the north with
middle 60s to the south. A strong shortwave trough will begin to
eject out across the central CONUS on Saturday bringing the
return of showers and a few rumbles of thunder to the region.
Model guidance is in good agreement that most of the region will
see widespread measurable rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inch. In
conjunction with WPC and ensemble guidance, it appears that areas
along and north of the Interstate 44 could receive rainfall in
excess of 1.0 inch. The stalled front and associated rainfall
will eventually exit the region as the upper level trough sweeps
through Sunday. Cooler temperatures will follow behind the front
on Sunday into early next week, with temperatures returning to
near normal in the 50s.

Mid range model guidance paint the picture of additional rainfall
chances next Tuesday. However, timing and system strength
inconsistencies still exist. This system will continue to be
evaluated as we head into this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

VFR conditions will persist throughout the TAF period. A strong
low level jet across the region today will translate to continued
southerly gusty winds at the surface during the morning and
afternoon of up to 30-40 knots, particularly at KSGF/KJLN, prior
to weakening during the evening hours. LLWS at 2000 ft of 50-60
knots will also be possible at all TAF sites through around 16Z,
with a return of 40-45 knots of LLWS again during the evening.

Some high clouds are also expected overnight into the morning
hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>095-101>103.

KS...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Rothstein

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
614 PM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-200015-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
614 PM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.
  Elevated fire weather risk.

DISCUSSION...

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue this evening and
tonight generally along and west of Highway 65 due to continued
southerly winds of 10 to 20 mph and gusts up to 20 to 30 mph
alongside relative humidity values of 40 to 55 percent throughout
the overnight hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Gusty southerly winds will return on Thursday. A wind advisory is
in effect for portions of the region on Thursday. Expect south
winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph.

Moisture will start to return on Thursday but some elevated fire
weather will be possible, mainly across the eastern Ozarks.

Widespread rain with locally heavy rainfall possible this
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Rothstein