Red Flag Warning 66, NWS Pueblo, CO

041 
WWUS85 KPUB 220046
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
646 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 10 am MDT to 7 pm 
MDT Thursday for gusty winds, low humidity values and dry fuels 
for fire weather zones 220...222...224...225...228 through 230... 
233 and 237, which includes the San Luis Valley, the Sangre de 
Cristo and Wet Mountains, Wet Mountain Valley, Lake, Chaffee, 
Fremont, Pueblo, Huerfano, Las Animas and Baca Counties...

COZ220-222-221700-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0065.000000T0000Z-201022T0100Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0066.201022T1600Z-201023T0100Z/
Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee
County-Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
646 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MDT
THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 220 AND 222...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
220 AND 222...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 220 and 222.

* Winds...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 10 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ221-220200-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0065.000000T0000Z-201022T0100Z/
Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant
Fossil Beds National Monument-
646 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 221...

The Red Flag Warning for Teller County and the Pikes Peak area
will expire at 7 PM.

$$

COZ224-225-228>230-233-237-221700-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0066.201022T1600Z-201023T0100Z/
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet
Mountains/La Veta Pass-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
646 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MDT
THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 224...225...228...229...230...233 AND 237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 224...225...228...229... 
  230...233 and 237.

* Winds...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 10 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

707 
WWUS85 KPUB 220104
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
704 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 10 am MDT to 7 pm
MDT Thursday for gusty winds, low humidity values and dry fuels
for fire weather zones 220...222...224...225...228 through 230...
233 and 237, which includes the San Luis Valley, the Sangre de
Cristo and Wet Mountains, Wet Mountain Valley, Lake, Chaffee,
Fremont, Pueblo, Huerfano, Las Animas and Baca Counties...

COZ220-222-224-225-228>230-233-237-221715-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0066.201022T1600Z-201023T0100Z/
Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee
County-Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet
Mountains/La Veta Pass-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
704 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MDT
THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 220...222...224...225...228...229...230...233 AND
237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 220...222...224...225... 
  228...229...230...233 and 237.

* Winds...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 11 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

894 
WWUS85 KPUB 221003
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
403 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2020


...A Red Flag Warning is now in effect from now until 7 PM this 
evening for gusty winds, low relative humidity values and dry 
fuels for fire weather zones 222 and 225, which includes Fremont 
County, the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Wet Mountains and Wet 
Mountain Valley...

...A Red Flag Warning has been issued from now until 1 PM this
afternoon for gusty winds, low relative humidity values and dry
fuels for fire weather zones 221...226 and 227, which includes
Teller and El Paso Counties...

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 10 AM this morning
until 7 PM this evening for gusty winds, low relative humidity 
and dry fuels for fire weather zones 
220...224...228...229...230...233 and 237...which includes the San
Luis Valley, Lake, Chaffee, Pueblo, Huerfano, Las Animas and Baca
Counties...

...A Red Flag Warning is now in effect from 10 AM this morning
until 7 PM this evening for gusty winds, low relative humidity and
dry fuels for fire weather zone 223, which includes the Eastern
San Juan and La Garita Mountain ranges...


COZ221-226-227-221900-
/O.EXB.KPUB.FW.W.0066.201022T1003Z-201022T1900Z/
Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant
Fossil Beds National Monument-
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-
403 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 221...226 AND 227...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels, 
which is in effect until 1 PM MDT this afternoon.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 221...226 and 227.

* Winds...Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...10 to 15 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ223-230100-
/O.EXA.KPUB.FW.W.0066.201022T1600Z-201023T0100Z/
Eastern San Juan Mountains and La Garita Mountains Including Wolf
Creek Pass and Creede-
403 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 223...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels, 
which is in effect from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this 
evening.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 223.

* Winds...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* Relative Humidity...10 to 15 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ222-225-230100-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FW.W.0066.201022T1003Z-201023T0100Z/
Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet
Mountains/La Veta Pass-
403 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 222 AND 225...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 222 and 225.

* Winds...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 9 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ220-224-228>230-233-237-230100-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0066.201022T1600Z-201023T0100Z/
Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee
County-
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
403 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...224...228...229...230... 
233 AND 237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 220...224...228...229... 
  230...233 and 237.

* Winds...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 6 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

492 
WWUS85 KPUB 221914
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
114 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...A Red Flag Warning is in effect until 7 PM this evening for 
gusty winds, low relative humidity values and dry fuels for fire 
weather zones 222 and 225, which includes Fremont County, the 
Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Wet Mountains and Wet Mountain 
Valley...

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 7 PM this evening 
for gusty winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels for fire 
weather zones 220...224...229... 230... and 233...which includes 
the San Luis Valley, Lake, Chaffee, Huerfano, and Las Animas 
Counties...

...A Red Flag Warning is in effect until 7 PM this evening for 
gusty winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels for fire weather 
zone 223, which includes the Eastern San Juan and La Garita 
Mountain ranges...

COZ228-237-222015-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FW.W.0066.000000T0000Z-201023T0100Z/
Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
114 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 228 AND 
237...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has cancelled the Red Flag
Warning.


$$

COZ221-226-227-222015-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0066.000000T0000Z-201022T1900Z/
Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant
Fossil Beds National Monument-
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-
114 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 221...226 
AND 227...


$$

COZ220-222>225-229-230-233-230100-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0066.000000T0000Z-201023T0100Z/
Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee
County-Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
Eastern San Juan Mountains and La Garita Mountains Including Wolf
Creek Pass and Creede-
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet
Mountains/La Veta Pass-Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
114 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...222... 223...224...225...229...230 
AND 233...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 220...222...223...224... 
  225...229...230 and 233.

* Winds...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 7 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

986 
WWUS85 KPUB 222126
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
326 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 7 PM this evening 
for gusty winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels for fire 
weather zones 220...222...223...224...225...229...230...and 
233...which includes the San Luis Valley, Lake, Chaffee, Huerfano,
Fremont, and Las Animas Counties, the Sangre de Cristo Mountains,
Wet Mountains and Wet Mountain Valley, and the Eastern San Juan 
and La Garita Mountain ranges...

...A Fire Weather Watch has been issued from Saturday afternoon
into Saturday evening for gusty winds, low humidity values and 
dry fuels for fire weather zones 222...224...225...229...230,
which includes Fremont, Huerfano, Las Animas counties, the San
Luis Valley, the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Wet Mountains and 
Wet Mountain Valley...

COZ222-224-225-229-230-231330-
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.A.0046.201024T1800Z-201025T0100Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0066.000000T0000Z-201023T0100Z/
Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet
Mountains/La Veta Pass-Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
326 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 222...224... 225...229 AND 230... 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
SATURDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 222...224...225...229 AND
230...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Fire Weather
Watch for gusty winds, low humidity values, and dry fuels which 
is in effect from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 222...224...225...229 and 
  230.

* Winds...West Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 7 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ220-223-233-230100-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0066.000000T0000Z-201023T0100Z/
Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee
County-
Eastern San Juan Mountains and La Garita Mountains Including Wolf
Creek Pass and Creede-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
326 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...223 AND 233...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 220...223 and 233.

* Winds...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 10 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

789 
WWUS85 KPUB 230047
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
647 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect from Saturday afternoon
through Saturday evening for gusty winds, low humidity values and
dry fuels for fire weather zones 222...224...225...229...230, 
which includes Fremont, Huerfano, and Las Animas Counties, the 
San Luis Valley, the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Wet Mountains and
Wet Mountain Valley...

COZ222-224-225-229-230-231700-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FW.W.0066.000000T0000Z-201023T0100Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.A.0046.201024T1800Z-201025T0100Z/
Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet
Mountains/La Veta Pass-Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
647 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 222...224...225...229 AND 230...

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY IS CANCELLED FOR GUSTY WINDS AND 
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 222...224...225...229
AND 230...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has cancelled the Red Flag
Warning that was in effect for today.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 222...224...225...229 and 
  230.

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 7 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ220-223-233-230200-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FW.W.0066.000000T0000Z-201023T0100Z/
Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee
County-
Eastern San Juan Mountains and La Garita Mountains Including Wolf
Creek Pass and Creede-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
647 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...223 AND 233...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has cancelled the Red Flag
Warning that was in effect today.



$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1152 AM MDT Wed Oct 21 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM MDT Wed Oct 21 2020

Currently...satellite imagery shows widespread low stratus across
the Eastern Plains, mainly east of I-25.  Observations are not
indicating any fog or drizzle at this time, but would not be
surprised if either occurs through the early morning hours,
especially over Baca County.  Winds remain breezy along the
Continental Divide.  Temperatures are generally in the 40s across
the region, with 20s in the San Luis Valley.

Today...an upper level trough is forecast to dig south out of the
northern Rockies by this afternoon, but remain well to our north.
This will lead gusty winds over the Central Mountains, down into
Fremont and Teller Counties this afternoon.  Humidity values are
expected to fall under 15 percent, creating critical fire weather
conditions over these areas this afternoon.  Added Fremont and
Teller Counties to the Red Flag Warning.  Elsewhere, near critical
fire weather conditions are expected from the La Garita and San Juan
Mountains, into the southern San Luis Valley this afternoon.  While
a few areas will see critical conditions, did not have enough
coverage or persistence to issue.  Caution is advised over these
areas.

On the Plains, low stratus is forecast to hand around through the
morning hours, slowly dissipating by late morning.  Again, patchy
fog and drizzle may be possible, primarily over Baca and Prowers
Counties this morning.  This cloud cover will likely help keep
temperatures a bit cooler out near the Kansas border where highs
will reach near 70.  Further west, better mixing and clearing skies
will allow for highs to reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Tonight...the upper level trough will shift east across Wyoming
remaining to our north.  As it passes to the north, the gradient
will tighten across Colorado with westerly flow prevailing aloft.
Models are indicating some potential for downslope winds, mainly
along the lee slopes of the Rampart, Sangre de Cristo and Wet
Mountains late tonight.  While not the most favorable set up (winds
are a bit to southwesterly), a few gusts near 50 mph may be possible
in wind prone areas into the morning hours.  These winds will also
help keep temperatures elevated along the lee slopes, with overnight
lows in the 50s, while further east on the Plains, lows will fall
into the 40s.  Where winds remain elevated, humidity recoveries will
be poor, with near critical to critical fire weather conditions into
Thursday morning. Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 AM MDT Wed Oct 21 2020

A couple of troughs will affect the weather during this period.
Confidence is quite high that it will be getting much colder.
Confidence is also high that we will see some widespread precip over
most of the area, however, per ensemble guidance, confidence is
lower on how much precip we will get.

The first concern during this period will be the first cold front
moving down the plains on Thursday. Red Flag conditions will be
possible, but it will be dependent on how fast the front comes
through, and how fast the low level RH will recover. Confidence is
high that we will reach RH and wind criteria in the San Luis Valley
(SLV), but confidence is lower for the plains due to the timing of
the fropa. For now, due to timing concerns, will leave the fire
weather hilite for parts of the region on Thursday as a Fire Weather
Watch, and will allow later shifts to get a better feel for the
timing of the front.

As for temps Thursday, NBM viewer showing very little spread in max
temps values over the area which indicate high confidence that we
will see another warm day across the region, with max temps around
70 across El Paso county and mid to upper 70s over most of the rest
of the plains. Some 80s likely far southeast plains.

Cold temps are likely Friday morning, with lows in the 20s across
the plains. Very little spread was once again indicated in teh NBM
indicating confidence is high with these readings. It should be
noted that this cold air with the first front is rather shallow, as
mtn/valley min temps for Fri morning are rather warm, with readings
on tin the 30s with some low 40s.

Friday will remain cool over the plains with readings in the 40s most
areas with 50s in the Raton Mesa region. The mtns and valleys will
be quite warm with 50s and 60s for highs. Interestingly, guidance
has warmer temps for Leadville (51F) than for most of the plains
(40s). SLV should have the warmest temps this day.

The warm airmass over the mtns/valleys on Fri will push out over the
rest of the region on Saturday, and it will be quite warm all areas
on this day. Red flag conditions will be possible once again,
especially along the southern I-25 corridor region. Spread in the
temp guidance (ensembles and deterministic) is rather low, so
confidence higher than normal for a very warm day Saturday.

Things start to change Sat nite/Sunday as a much stronger trough
moves into the region. Confidence is very high that it will be
getting much colder, however there is quite a bit of spread on how
much colder it will get. In addition, pops will be on the increase.
Confidence is high that that we will see snow develop over the
central mtns and this precip is expected to move south and east as
the day progresses. Temps will cool off across the plains and
central mtn area while the SLV will likely remain mild, with highs
in the 50s.

For Sunday night and into Monday, sensible weather will be dependent
on the orientation and strength of how the trough evolves over the
region. EC is strong but a bit farther south while the GFS is more
progressive but has the best lift moving over the region. At this
time confidence is high that it will be sharply colder, but confidence
is not that high on how MUCH precip we will get overall. For now, it
appears the overall best chance for heavier precip will be over the
SW mtns with all of the mtns getting some snow. Other areas,
including the plains, will likely see some precip, but amounts still
need to be determined.

for mid week next week, confidence is in the cellar regarding
sensible weather solutions due to the evolution and movement (and
strength) of the 2nd trough. GFS is more progressive and moves the
system out of the area by later Tuesday, while the EC moves a closed
low over the state during the mid week time period. Hopefully, the
EC guidance verifies as this would keep a threat of precip along
with cooler weather over the area for a longer period of time, and
we all know we could use the moisture. \/Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM MDT Wed Oct 21 2020

VFR and dry weather across the TAF sites through the period.
Continued periodic high clouds to move overhead, especially for
COS this afternoon. More dense high clouds return to all sites
later tonight into Thursday, with any low stratus remaining well
east of the terminals. Gustier winds expected for ALS this
afternoon, with COS and PUB noting stronger winds very late in
the period, or slightly after.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>222.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for COZ220-222-224-225-228>230-233-237.

&&

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
429 AM MDT Wed Oct 21 2020

COZ058>089-093>099-221030-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
429 AM MDT Wed Oct 21 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Critical fire weather conditions are expected from late morning
through early this evening over Lake, Chaffee and Fremont and Teller
Counties, where dry vegetation, strong wind gusts up to 40 mph and
low humidity will create high fire danger. Near critical fire
weather conditions will also exist along the Continental Divide and
southern portions of the San Luis Valley this afternoon.

Poor humidity recoveries are expected overnight along the lee slopes
of the Rampart Range and Eastern Mountains.  Downslope winds could
gust to near 50 mph late tonight into Thursday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

For Thursday...critical fire weather conditions will be possible
across the central mountains, the southern mountains, the San Luis
Valley and the southern I-25 corridor region and then eastward
along the Colorado and New Mexico border.

For Saturday, critical fire weather conditions will once again be
possible along the southern I-25 corridor region.

Saturday night, a strong cold front is expected to move across the
region. This system will bring a chance of snow to the most if not
all of the region Sunday and into Monday. significant  snow fall
accumulations will be possible across the central mountains and
the southwest mountains. High temperatures on Monday may not get
above freezing across most if not all of the plains.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, there is lots of uncertainty during
this period, and unsettled weather will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will not be needed today or tonight.

88/Hodanish