Red Flag Warning 37, NWS Pueblo, CO

971 
WWUS85 KPUB 090256
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
856 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 11 PM this evening 
for gusty winds, low relative humidity, high Haines indices, and 
dry fuels for fire zones 228 through 233 and 235 through 237 which
includes the southeast plains along and south of the Arkansas 
River Valley...

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from Noon until 8 PM 
Tuesday for gusty winds, low relative humidity, and dry fuels for 
fire weather zones 224...which includes the San Luis Valley...

COZ224-091900-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0036.000000T0000Z-200609T0300Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0037.200609T1800Z-200610T0200Z/
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
856 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT
TUESDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND HIGH HAINES
INDICES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224...
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS EVENING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT... 

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 224.

* Winds...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 8 percent.

* Impacts...Weather conditions will be favorable for rapid rates 
  of fire growth and spread.

* Haines...6.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ220>223-225>227-234-090400-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0036.000000T0000Z-200609T0300Z/
Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee
County-
Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant
Fossil Beds National Monument-
Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
Eastern San Juan Mountains and La Garita Mountains Including Wolf
Creek Pass and Creede-
Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet
Mountains/La Veta Pass-
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Kiowa County Including Eads-
856 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT...

Winds will remain strong overnight, but relative humidity will
continue to rise to above 15 percent over much of the area.

$$

COZ228>233-235>237-090500-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0036.000000T0000Z-200609T0500Z/
Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Bent County Including Las Animas-Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
856 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND HIGH HAINES
INDICES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 231...232...233...235...236 AND
237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 228...229...230...231... 
  232...233...235...236 and 237.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 6 percent.

* Impacts...Weather conditions will be favorable for rapid rates 
  of fire growth and spread. Any smoldering wildfires could grow 
  rapidly out of control.

* Haines...6.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

744 
WWUS85 KPUB 090459
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1059 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from Noon until 8 PM 
Tuesday for gusty winds, low relative humidity, and dry fuels for 
fire weather zones 224...which includes the San Luis Valley...

COZ228>233-235>237-090600-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0036.000000T0000Z-200609T0500Z/
Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Bent County Including Las Animas-Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
1059 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM MDT...

Winds will continue to be strong overnight, but relative humidity
has risen above 15 percent at most locations, and will continue to
increase through the night. 

$$

COZ224-092100-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0037.200609T1800Z-200610T0200Z/
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
1059 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT
TUESDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND HIGH HAINES
INDICES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 224.

* Winds...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 11 percent.

* Impacts...Weather conditions will be favorable for rapid rates 
  of fire growth and spread.

* Haines...4.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

743 
WWUS85 KPUB 090953
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
353 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2020

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from noon until 8 PM 
today for gusty winds, low relative humidity, and dry fuels for 
fire weather zone 224...which includes the San Luis Valley...

COZ224-100200-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0037.200609T1800Z-200610T0200Z/
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
353 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS 
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 224.

* Winds...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 13 percent.

* Impacts...Weather conditions will be favorable for rapid rates 
  of fire growth and spread.

* Haines...4.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

924 
WWUS85 KPUB 092057
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
257 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2020

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 8 PM today for 
gusty winds, low relative humidity, high Haines indices, and dry 
fuels for fire weather zone 224...which includes the San Luis 
Valley...

COZ224-100200-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0037.000000T0000Z-200610T0200Z/
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
257 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND HIGH HAINES INDICES 
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 224.

* Winds...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 13 percent.

* Impacts...Weather conditions will be favorable for rapid rates 
  of fire growth and spread.

* Haines...5.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

431 
WWUS85 KPUB 100104
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
704 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2020

...Red Flag Warning for the San Luis Valley has been cancelled...

COZ224-100215-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FW.W.0037.000000T0000Z-200610T0200Z/
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
704 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has cancelled the Red Flag
Warning.

Relative humidity has risen above 15 percent over all of the San
Luis Valley, and winds will continue to diminish through the
evening. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1128 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 426 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...Widespread Critical Fire Weather Conditions Expected Today and
Strong Winds Expected Tonight...

There are a number of forecast concerns for the short-term period
through 6 AM Tuesday. The main concern during the day is that there
will once again be critical fire weather conditions for all of south
central and southeastern Colorado except for the eastern San Juan
and La Garita Mountains. Tonight a couple more concerns come into
play as a cold front moves through the region. Strong northerly
winds are expected to develop this evening and continue into the
overnight hours while accumulating snow is expected over the central
mountains and Teller County. In addition, temperatures are expected
to dip down to near freezing for many locations in the high valleys.

Currently, the axis of an upper-level trough is located over the
Great Basin, resulting in southwest flow aloft over Colorado as can
be seen via satellite imagery and upper-air analysis. The southwest
flow has brought drier air into the region with a dry line currently
set up near La Junta. Dew points to the east of the dry line are in
the 40s and 50s and 20s and 30s west of it. Some gusty winds of 30-
35 mph are still being reported across the far eastern plains near
the Kansas border. Temperatures as of 4 AM are generally in the 60s
and 70s across the plains and 40s and 50s in the high valleys.

Today...The upper-level trough is expected to continue propagating
eastward today and tonight. As it does, an associated surface cold
front moves south across the eastern plains; however, latest
guidance indicates that it won't quite make it this far south before
retreating back north. Additionally, the southwest flow aloft is
expected to push the drier air east into Kansas and provide gusty
south to southwest surface winds for much of the area. Temperatures
are also expected to be on the warm side with the plains reaching
the upper 80s to mid 90s and the high valleys reaching the mid 70s.
Therefore, the current Red Flag Warning still looks good.

Tonight...A little more difficult scenario is shaping up for tonight
as the aforementioned trough sends a second cold front south across
the area, but this one will be more potent than the initial front.
Strong northerly winds are expected to accompany this frontal
passage, especially for the eastern portions of El Paso, Crowley,
and Kiowa Counties, where winds of 35-40 mph with gusts near 60 mph
are expected. Due to these strong winds, have issued a High Wind
Warning for these locations beginning at 9 PM. Precipitation chances
are also expected to increase for most of the mountain ranges and
across the plains as the front moves through tonight, including snow
for the central mountains and Teller County. Snow accumulations of 1
to 3 inches are anticipated with locally higher amounts possible in
these areas. The Palmer Divide is even trickier as latest guidance
shows a myriad of precipitation possibilities. Current forecast is
for little to no snow accumulation, but would not be surprised if
that area gets a couple of inches as well. Will have to continue
monitoring trends on the snowfall potential. Finally, in areas where
the cloud cover is not expected to be as prominent, such as the San
Luis Valley, temperatures are anticipated to dip down to near
freezing, but there should be just enough cloud cover to prevent
temperatures from going below freezing. Elsewhere in the lower
elevations, temperatures are expected to be in the 40s to near 50.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 426 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020

Active weather expected to continue on Tuesday, with varying
ptypes possible in the morning, and then with high winds and fire
weather concerns expected throughout the day Tuesday.

Deep upper trough and attendant surface low expected to continue
shifting east through the region at the start of the period. This
rather robust system will be responsible for a wide range of
weather/hazards, beginning with possible precip persisting Tuesday
morning. Some variability among guidance this morning with the
extent of any additional precip development on Tuesday, with some
guidance indicating a decent precip shield still swinging through
and while other guidance indicates little to no additional precip
development. Given the anticipated strong forcing with this
system, felt it was worth having additional precip chances for
much of the plains Tuesday morning. Did included chance pops but
could see the need for at least likely pops for parts of the
eastern plains, before this forcing and precip development shift
to the east in the afternoon and evening. Expect mainly rain,
however, do think a rain snow mix or even all snow will continue
to be possible along the Palmer Divide through mid morning. Little
to no snow accumulation is expected, if this precip materializes.
Additional rain chances should lower later in the day on Tuesday,
though do think isolated to scattered rain showers will be
possible over the eastern plains. With the additional rain chances
and then likely cloud cover, did lower max temps across the
plains with much lower temps in the 70s expected. If the extent of
the precip is more, then think highs will need to be lowered
further, possibly to the 60s.

On the backside of this system, low/mid level flow really ramps
up once again on Tuesday, especially over the eastern plains. This
strengthening flow and rather tight pressure gradient in place
will support strong northerly winds and gusts Tuesday morning
through Tuesday evening. Some potential for the cloud cover to
limit mixing over the plains, but don't think this will hinder the
extent of the winds/gusts. Forecast sounding showing really
strong flow just off the surface, which should easily reach the
surface and produce northerly winds gusting to possibly 60-65 mph
at times. Continued the warning for Crowley and Kiowa, and then
did issue a High Wind Watch for Bent, Prowers, and Baca counties.
Some potential for these stronger winds to be observed across
Otero and eastern Las Animas, however, confidence is low on this
potential at this time. With the departure of this system, flow
weakens and pressure gradient relaxes pretty quickly Tuesday
evening and with winds expected to diminish through the night.

Additional fire weather concerns are expected Tuesday afternoon
and evening for the San Luis Valley and along the the I-25
corridor from the Canon City to Pueblo areas and south. While the
strongest winds will be to the east, winds will still be rather
gusty over much of the area Tuesday. In these locations, falling
dewpoints are anticipated to occur with RH values falling below
15% in the afternoon. For the remaining plains, the strong winds
are concerning and will continue to closely monitor. However, in
these locations, higher dewpoint air is expected to be in place.
If these higher dewpoints were to not develop, then will monitor
the need to possibly expand the fire weather headlines.

A period of dry weather is then expected Wednesday and Thursday
with warmth returning, but with precip chances returning by Friday
and continuing into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1102 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020

Strong southwest winds gusting up to 35 to 40 kts will spread into
the TAF sites between 18z and 20z today. Winds will gradually
shift around from the west to northwest and decrease this evening
before increasing from the north to northwest between 04z and 06z
with gusts to near 50 kts possible at both KCOS and KPUB as a
strong cold front moves through. Clouds will increase behind the
front with VCSH possible at both terminals with VFR cigs. Showers
should pull east of both terminals by 18z with winds slowly
decreasing tomorrow afternoon though remaining quite brisk from
the north with gusts to 30 kts. KALS could also see VCSH though
chances are a little lower. Winds will shift out of the northwest
with gusts to around 25 kts after 09z.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MDT this evening for COZ228>233-
235>237.

High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
COZ097>099.

High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Tuesday for
COZ089-095-096.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>227-234.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for COZ222-224-228>230.

High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM MDT Tuesday for
COZ085.

&&

SHORT TERM...CARLBERG
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...KT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1100 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020

COZ058>089-093>099-091700-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1100 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon and
evening for most of south central and southeastern Colorado due to
strong winds gusting up to 45 mph, low relative humidity, and dry
fuels. Be prepared to evacuate quickly if a fire starts near your
area, as the strong winds will cause any fire to spread rapidly.

A strong cold front will move through the southeast plains tonight
bringing north winds gusting up to 65 mph across northern portions
of the southeast plains...including Southern El Paso, Kiowa and
Crowley counties. North winds gusting up to 55 mph will spread
across all of the southeast plains towards morning.

Accumulating snow is expected tonight for the central mountains
and Teller County, where 1 to 3 inches of accumulation are
possible. There is also an outside chance for an inch or two of
snow over the Palmer Divide tonight though the warm ground should
limit accumulations to grassy surfaces.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Strengthening northerly winds, possibly gusting to 55 to 65 mph,
are expected across parts of the eastern plains Tuesday. Critical
fire weather conditions will also once again be possible Tuesday,
mainly for the San Luis Valley and parts of the I-25 corridor,
with these gusty north winds and drier air moving back into the
region.

Thunderstorm chances return to the region on Friday, with
afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances expected into the
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible tonight in the central mountains and Teller County for
snow...and for northern portions of the southeast plains for
strong gusty winds.

31/31