Alert archive / New York / Storm Warnings in 2020

Storm Warning 4, NWS New York, NY

December 23, 2020

NWS New York, NY issued this storm warning at Dec 23, 2020, 2:57 PM EST. It took effect at Dec 24, 2020, 6:00 PM EST. It was in force for 14 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 23, 2020, 2:57 PM EST (19:57 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 24, 2020, 6:00 PM EST
Expired
Dec 25, 2020, 8:13 AM EST
In force
14 hr
Issued by
NWS New York, NY

The text

As transmitted.

537 
WHUS71 KOKX 231957
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Upton NY
257 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

ANZ338-355-241000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.SC.Y.0119.201224T1500Z-201224T2300Z/
/O.UPG.KOKX.SR.A.0002.201224T2300Z-201225T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.SR.W.0004.201224T2300Z-201225T1500Z/
New York Harbor-Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
257 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Storm Warning, south winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts
  up to 60 kt and seas 14 to 19 feet on the ocean expected. For 
  the Small Craft Advisory, southeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts
  up to 30 kt and seas 5 to 8 feet on the ocean expected.

* WHERE...New York Harbor and Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet 
  NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...For the Storm Warning, from 6 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST 
  Friday. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 10 AM to 6 PM EST 
  Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ345-350-353-241000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.SC.Y.0119.201224T1500Z-201224T2300Z/
/O.UPG.KOKX.SR.A.0002.201224T2300Z-201225T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.SR.W.0004.201224T2300Z-201225T1500Z/
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
257 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Storm Warning, south winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts
  up to 60 kt and seas 16 to 21 feet on the ocean expected. For 
  the Small Craft Advisory, south winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up 
  to 30 kt and seas 5 to 8 feet on the ocean expected.

* WHERE...Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm, and 
  The Long Island south shore bays.

* WHEN...For the Storm Warning, from 6 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST 
  Friday. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 10 AM to 6 PM EST 
  Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ330-340-241000-
/O.UPG.KOKX.SR.A.0002.201224T2300Z-201225T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.SR.W.0004.201224T2300Z-201225T1500Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
257 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 60 kt and
  seas 5 to 8 feet on the Long Island Sound expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Long Island Sound, and Peconic and Gardiners 
  Bays.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ335-241000-
/O.UPG.KOKX.SR.A.0002.201224T2300Z-201225T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.SR.W.0004.201224T2300Z-201225T1500Z/
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
257 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and seas 
  3 to 6 feet expected.

* WHERE...Western Long Island Sound.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine
5 follow-up statements
684 
WHUS71 KOKX 240912
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Upton NY
412 AM EST Thu Dec 24 2020

ANZ338-345-242115-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0119.201224T1500Z-201224T2300Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.SR.W.0004.201224T2300Z-201225T1500Z/
New York Harbor-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
412 AM EST Thu Dec 24 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Storm Warning, south winds 30 to 40 kt with 
  gusts up to 60 kt and seas 14 to 19 feet on the ocean 
  expected. For the Small Craft Advisory, southeast winds 15 to 
  25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 5 to 8 feet on the ocean 
  expected.

* WHERE...New York Harbor and South Shore Bays of Long Island.

* WHEN...For the Storm Warning, from 6 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST 
  Friday. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 10 AM to 6 PM EST 
  Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ330-335-340-242115-
/O.EXA.KOKX.SC.Y.0119.201224T1500Z-201224T2300Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.SR.W.0004.201224T2300Z-201225T1500Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
412 AM EST Thu Dec 24 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
EST THIS EVENING...
...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Storm Warning, south winds 25 to 35 kt with 
  gusts up to 55 kt and seas 4 to 7 feet expected. For the Small 
  Craft Advisory, south winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt 
  and seas 1 to 3 feet expected.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound, and Peconic and Gardiners Bays.

* WHEN...For the Storm Warning, from 6 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST 
  Friday. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 10 AM to 6 PM EST 
  Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ350-353-355-242115-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SC.Y.0119.201224T0912Z-201224T2300Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.SR.W.0004.201224T2300Z-201225T1500Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
412 AM EST Thu Dec 24 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Storm Warning, south winds 30 to 40 kt with 
  gusts up to 60 kt and seas 14 to 19 feet on the ocean 
  expected. For the Small Craft Advisory, southeast winds 15 to 
  25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 5 to 8 feet on the ocean 
  expected.

* WHERE...Ocean waters from Sandy Hook NJ to Montauk Point NY out
  20 nm.

* WHEN...For the Storm Warning, from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM 
  EST Friday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 PM EST this 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine
901 
WHUS71 KOKX 242039
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Upton NY
339 PM EST Thu Dec 24 2020

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-251000-
/O.CAN.KOKX.SC.Y.0119.000000T0000Z-201224T2300Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.SR.W.0004.201224T2300Z-201225T1500Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
339 PM EST Thu Dec 24 2020

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 60 kt. Seas 15
  to 20 feet on the ocean and 4 to 10 ft on Long Island, highest
  just west of Block Island Sound.

* WHERE...The ocean waters south of Long Island out 20 nm, Long 
  Island Sound, The south shore and eastern bays of Long Island, 
  and New York Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine
105 
WHUS71 KOKX 250813
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Upton NY
313 AM EST Fri Dec 25 2020

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-251500-
/O.CON.KOKX.SR.W.0004.000000T0000Z-201225T1500Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
313 AM EST Fri Dec 25 2020

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 60 kt. Seas 16 
  to 21 feet on the ocean and 4 to 10 kt on Long Island Sound, 
  highest just west of Block Island Sound.

* WHERE...The ocean waters south of Long Island out 20 nm, Long
  Island Sound, The south shore and eastern bays of Long Island, 
  and New York Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine
739 
WHUS71 KOKX 251101
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Upton NY
601 AM EST Fri Dec 25 2020

ANZ335-338-355-251500-
/O.CAN.KOKX.SR.W.0004.000000T0000Z-201225T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.GL.W.0029.201225T1101Z-201225T1500Z/
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
601 AM EST Fri Dec 25 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 12
  to 17 feet on the ocean waters.

* WHERE...Western Long Island Sound, New York Harbor, and Sandy 
  Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ330-340-345-350-353-251500-
/O.CON.KOKX.SR.W.0004.000000T0000Z-201225T1500Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
601 AM EST Fri Dec 25 2020

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and seas 
  16 to 21 feet.

* WHERE...Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm, The 
  south shore and eastern bays of Long Island, and Eastern Long 
  Island Sound.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine
045 
WHUS71 KOKX 251313
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Upton NY
813 AM EST Fri Dec 25 2020

ANZ330-340-345-350-353-251600-
/O.CAN.KOKX.SR.W.0004.000000T0000Z-201225T1500Z/
/O.EXB.KOKX.GL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-201225T1600Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
813 AM EST Fri Dec 25 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 15
  to 20 feet on the ocean and 3 to 5 ft on Eastern Long Island
  Sound.

* WHERE...Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm, The 
  south shore and eastern bays of Long Island, and Eastern Long 
  Island Sound.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ335-338-355-251600-
/O.EXT.KOKX.GL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-201225T1600Z/
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
813 AM EST Fri Dec 25 2020

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 12
  to 17 feet on the ocean.

* WHERE...Western Long Island Sound, New York Harbor, and Sandy 
  Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Dec 23, 1:06 PM EST, 1 hour 51 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 23, 1:06 PM EST, 1 hour 51 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
106 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in through early this afternoon and then
will move offshore this afternoon through Thursday. Intensifying
low pressure along a strong cold front approaches for Thursday
night into Friday. This strong cold front will move across
Friday. High pressure then builds in for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Made some minor tweaks to temps. Otherwise, the fcst is on
track. Upper level ridging moves across the region today along
with high pressure at the surface. Mostly sunny conditions to
start will be followed by an increase in clouds towards the end
of the day as an upper level trough dives into the central part
of the country. The clouds will be at the mid and higher levels
that will be moving in.

Winds will lighten as the pressure gradient decreases today and the
winds will shift from a NW flow to more of a southerly flow.
Took a blend of MOS for highs with a slight increase for recent
observed trends. Max temperatures will range from the low to mid
40s. A lack of daytime mixing will be seen with the high pressure
moving overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
With ridge moving farther out into the Atlantic aloft and an
approaching deepening upper level trough, atmospheric flow will
become more southwest. This will allow for an increase in low
level warm air advection. Lows tonight will likely be reached in
the evening with a slight increase to temperatures overnight
with increasing southerly flow and thickening clouds. Lows range
from the low 30s to near 40 and again that would be in the
evening as temperatures by early Thursday settle into the upper
30s to upper 40s. There is enough temperature and dewpoint
difference to not mention of any fog formation.

For Thursday, increasing clouds and warm air advection. The
continued southerly atmospheric flow will set up PWATS close to
1 inch by early Thursday evening. Highs are forecast in the mid
to upper 50s and the winds will become quite breezy. GFS Bufkit
most aggressive here with showing afternoon wind gusts but did
not take this with too much weight for the forecast. Kept wind
gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range. Rain chances increase from west
to east especially in the afternoon with overrunning stratiform
mode of rainfall expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For Thursday night through Friday, the main focus is the strong low
pressure system deepening and occluded with a resulting strong cold
front moving across the region. Models have a consensus from
forecast reflectivity fields of there being a squall line that will
steadily move across from west to east early Friday morning. Heavy
rain and gusty winds will be the main impacts with this. There could
be potentially strong winds across all coastal areas and
Southeast Connecticut with high wind watch expanded both in
space and time. It starts 6PM Thursday and goes through 9AM
Friday for NYC Metro including Southern Fairfield CT and goes
until 12PM to the east with Southern N Haven, all of Middlesex
and all of New London counties in Connecticut as well as
Suffolk County NY.

Forecast timing of the squall line from 24 hr trends of 00Z Dec
23rd NAM and GFS has slowed down with the squall line speed.
GFS shows squall line located approximately 100 miles farther
west at 12Z Fri and NAM conveys squall line approximately 30
miles farther west at 12Z Fri. Potential is there for mostly
minor flooding, especially across the interior where there is
more of a snow pack. See hydrology section for more details.

An anomalously deep longwave trough shifting aloft through the
Ohio Valley/Great Lakes will strengthen surface low pressure to
our west. The center of this system will track through the
eastern Great Lakes Thursday night and pass to the north on
Friday, dragging a strong cold front through the forecast area
late Thursday night/early Friday morning.

Rain chances begin Thursday morning and increase slowly through
the afternoon. There is good agreement among the models that
rain amounts through the afternoon will be on the lighter side -
under a quarter of an inch and focused more toward areas west
of the city. Anomalously moist air with PWATs on the order of 3
to 4 standard deviations above climatology, gets transported
into the region Thursday night on a strong southerly flow, and
combines with strong moisture convergence and lift with the help
of a strong low level jet. Rain therefore spreads east across
the forecast area during the night, and becomes heavy at times
after around midnight. This will bring some flooding concerns,
especially where a snow pack remains and has a liquid equivalent
currently up to an inch and a half, with the highest amounts
for the northernmost zones. Expecting that these snow liquid
equivalents will gradually diminish through Wednesday night,
then more rapidly on Thursday as temperatures rise into the
50s. Best chances for at least minor flooding impacts will be
across NE NJ and nearby areas in the Lower Hudson Valley
Thursday night into early Friday morning.

An additional concern is with strong to potentially damaging
winds Thursday night into early Friday morning. Models continue
to show 65 to 75 kt winds at 950 mb during this period. The core
of this low level jet is most likely to pass over Long Island
and southeast Connecticut. Forecast soundings indicate an
inversion around or just below these high winds and this is
typically a difficult forecast on how much will mix down to the
surface, but with models continuing to show signs of a potential
squall line or convective cold frontal band, this would enhance
the chances for stronger winds to mix down to the surface. If
this type of rain band/squall line materializes, the winds would
effectively weaken considerably once it passes, similar to what
occurred on November 15. Advisory-criteria winds could occur
for the inland areas. Strongest sustained winds and gusts would
be from late evening Thursday through around daybreak Friday.

As the rain pushes out of the eastern zones Friday afternoon,
colder air will rush in, but not quick enough for any mixing or
changeover to snow to be of any significance. The rest of Friday
will be dry and breezy with temperatures falling throughout the
day. Daytime highs likely occur during the pre-dawn hours.
Temperatures by late afternoon into early evening are expected
to fall into the 30s for most areas.

Arctic high pressure then builds in through the the weekend
with dry weather and temperatures below normal. Low pressure
then approaches on Monday with a chance of precipitation by late
in the day, but better chances probably during Monday night.
The system could linger into Tuesday with more precipitation
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure centered along the northeast and mid Atlantic
coast moves offshore through tonight. A slow moving strong cold
front approaches Thursday.

VFR expected through the forecast period. However, there is a
low chance of MVFR developing toward 18Z Thursday. KSWF likely
becomes MVFR after 12Z with light rain developing, and LLWS
possible.

Light southerly flow through tonight, except W to NW flow at
KGON shifting to SW late this afternoon. SE to S winds increase
Thursday morning with gusts to around 20kt developing.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments through the evening push. Amendments
Thursday with developing rain. Timing of lowering conditions,
and increasing winds Thursday is uncertain and may be delayed a
couple of hours. Moderate forecast confidence.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

***High Impact Event Thursday into Friday Morning***

.Thursday afternoon...Increasing S-SE winds, 15-20 kt g25-30
kt. Becoming MVFR with rain developing by late in the afternoon.
LLWS.
.Thursday Night...IFR to LIFR in rain, which could be heavy at
times. S-SE winds 20-30 kt g35-45 kt, with peak gusts 45-50 kt
possible. Highest winds and gusts will be at and east of the New
York City terminals. LLWS.
.Friday...IFR or lower in rain, tapering off during the
afternoon. S-SE winds 20-30 kt g30-40 kt, peak gusts 45-50 kt.
Highest winds in the morning, and mainly east of the New York
City terminals. Winds become SW 10-15 gusting 20-30 kt in the
afternoon. Possibly becoming VFR late in the day.
.Saturday...VFR. W winds G20-25kt.
.Sunday... VFR.
.Monday...A chance of showers with MVFR possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory for the ocean zone from Moriches Inlet NY
to Montauk Point NY remains in effect until 9AM this morning.
The ocean seas here will linger near 5 ft into mid morning
before subsiding to 3 to 4 ft late this morning and then around
2 ft this afternoon. Otherwise, other marine zones will remain
below SCA criteria.

Then, sub-SCA conditions are expected for the rest of today and
tonight. SCA level gusts on all waters and SCA level ocean seas
will likely develop during the day Thursday with a strengthening
southerly fetch. There is some uncertainty as to how much
mixing will occur over the waters as warmer air moves over the
colder ocean waters.

Seas continue to build Thursday night as southerly winds become
even stronger as a strong low level jet shifts through and the
pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front. The cold front
passes through late Thursday night/early Friday morning with
diminishing SW-W winds. Storm watch for all waters Thursday
night and this goes until 9AM Friday for the Western Long Island
Sound, NY Harbor and ocean from Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island
Inlet NY while the rest of the forecast waters go until 12PM
Friday. Seas on the ocean build up to around 15 to 20 ft
Thursday night into early Friday.

Winds will subside to advisory criteria by the end of Friday
and probably remain at advisory levels on the ocean through
Saturday, then relatively tranquil conditions are expected
Sunday with a ridge of high pressure shifting across the eastern
seaboard.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Around 2 to 3 inches of rainfall is likely Thursday afternoon
through the day on Friday. The heaviest of rain is expected
Thursday night into Friday morning. Remaining snow pack with
liquid water equivalent of 0.50"-1.50" may add to the potential
for flooding with this rainfall. However, the amount of snow
cover remaining during the heavy rain is in question. There is
not enough confidence for widespread flooding for any flood
watches, but this will need to be monitored. Overall greater
probability for greater for at least minor flooding looks to be
across northeast New Jersey and nearby sections of the Lower
Hudson Valley, but still possible across the rest of the
forecast area. Flash flooding will be possible with saturated
grounds, within the low lying and poor drainage areas.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tide levels will increase ahead of a strong cold front Thursday
night into Friday morning. Astronomical tides are low with in most
cases a 2-3 ft surge needed for minor flooding benchmarks to be met.
There is considerable spread among NYHOPS and SNAP-X ensemble, with
the higher end forecasts exceeding minor benchmarks along the south
shores of Long Island and CT Coast. ESTOFs is beginning to align
more with the higher end of the ensembles, and this idea is
possible given the anomalously strong SE flow Thursday night into
Friday morning. Have gone with an average of ETSS, ESTOFS, and
NYHOPS mean for now, which yields water levels coming close to
minor benchmarks except for isolated locations along the south
shore back bays and possible CT Coast that exceed minor
benchmarks. Coastal flood statements and/or advisories are
possible for the early Friday morning high tides, especially if
the higher end of guidance materializes.

There is also potential for beach erosion and overwash due to the
anomalously strong SE flow and high ocean seas Thursday into
Friday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning
     for CTZ007-008-010>012.
     High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning
     for CTZ009.
NY...High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning
     for NYZ078>081.
     High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning
     for NYZ071>075-176>179.
NJ...High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning
     for NJZ006.
MARINE...Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     ANZ330-340-345-350-353.
     Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     ANZ335-338-355.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 23, 4:28 AM EST, 10 hours 29 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
428 AM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

CTZ009-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-176>179-240930-
Southern Fairfield-Hudson-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-
Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
428 AM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

In addition, flooding will be possible Thursday night into Friday.
However, there remains uncertainty in the location of the heaviest
rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please safely report significant
weather conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ007-008-010>012-NYZ078>081-240930-
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
428 AM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

In addition, flooding will be possible Thursday night into Friday.
However, there remains uncertainty in the location of the heaviest
rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please safely report significant
weather conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005-006-NJZ002-004-103>108-NYZ067>070-240930-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
428 AM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Flooding will be possible Thursday night into Friday. However,
there remains uncertainty in the location of the heaviest rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please safely report significant
weather conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ330-340-345-350-353-240930-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
428 AM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ335-338-355-240930-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
428 AM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

The office that day

Everything else NWS New York, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 23, 2:43 PM ESTFlood WatchOKXBronx, Kings, New York, Orange, Putnam, Queens and 3 more43 hr
Dec 23, 2:55 PM ESTHigh Wind WarningOKXBronx, Kings, Nassau, New York, Orange, Putnam and 5 more41 hr
Dec 23, 2:55 PM ESTWind AdvisoryOKXOrange, Putnam, Rockland, Westchester35 hr
Dec 23, 2:57 PM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryOKX25 hr

Nearby

Storm Warnings in New York, 2020Every storm warning in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.