Alert archive / New York / Storm Warnings in 2020

Storm Warning 3, NWS New York, NY

December 16, 2020

NWS New York, NY issued this storm warning at Dec 16, 2020, 10:07 AM EST. It took effect at Dec 16, 2020, 6:00 PM EST. It was in force for 16 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 16, 2020, 10:07 AM EST (15:07 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 16, 2020, 6:00 PM EST
Expired
Dec 17, 2020, 9:51 AM EST
In force
16 hr
Issued by
NWS New York, NY

The text

As transmitted.

069 
WHUS71 KOKX 161507
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Upton NY
1007 AM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

ANZ350-353-355-170415-
/O.EXT.KOKX.GL.W.0027.201216T1900Z-201216T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.SR.W.0003.201216T2300Z-201217T1200Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
1007 AM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM
EST THIS EVENING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, east winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts
  up to 40 kt and seas 3 to 7 feet expected. For the Storm 
  Warning, northeast winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and 
  seas 11 to 16 feet expected. 

* WHERE...The ocean waters south of Long Island out 20 nm.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM
  EST this evening. For the Storm Warning, from 6 PM this evening
  to 7 AM EST Thursday. 

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-170415-
/O.EXT.KOKX.GL.W.0027.201216T1900Z-201217T1800Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
1007 AM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt with
  occasional gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 3 to 7 feet expected for Long
  Island Sound and Peconic and Gardiner's Bays.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound, The south shore and eastern bays of 
  Long Island, and New York Harbor.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine
6 follow-up statements
138 
WHUS71 KOKX 162047
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Upton NY
347 PM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

ANZ350-353-355-171000-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-201216T2300Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.SR.W.0003.201216T2300Z-201217T1200Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
347 PM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, east winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts 
  up to 35 kt and seas 4 to 7 feet. For the Storm Warning, 
  northeast winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and seas 11 
  to 16 feet expected.

* WHERE...The ocean waters south of Long Island out 20 nm.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 6 PM EST this evening. For 
  the Storm Warning, until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-171000-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-201217T1800Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
347 PM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and
  occasional gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 4 to 7 feet on the Long
  Island Sound and Peconic and Garinder's Bays.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound, The south shore and eastern bays of 
  Long Island, and New York Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine
454 
WHUS71 KOKX 170012
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Upton NY
712 PM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-171315-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-201217T1800Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
712 PM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and
  occasional gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 4 to 7 feet on the Long
  Island Sound.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound, The south shore and eastern bays of 
  Long Island, and New York Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ350-353-355-171200-
/O.CON.KOKX.SR.W.0003.000000T0000Z-201217T1200Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
712 PM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and
  seas 11 to 17 feet.

* WHERE...The ocean waters south of Long Island out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine
307 
WHUS71 KOKX 170419
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Upton NY
1119 PM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-171730-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-201217T1800Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
1119 PM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and
  occasional gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound, The south shore and eastern bays of 
  Long Island, and New York Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ350-353-355-171200-
/O.CON.KOKX.SR.W.0003.000000T0000Z-201217T1200Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
1119 PM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and 
  seas 12 to 17 feet.

* WHERE...The ocean waters south of Long Island out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine
976 
WHUS71 KOKX 170831
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Upton NY
331 AM EST Thu Dec 17 2020

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-171800-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-201217T1800Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
331 AM EST Thu Dec 17 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and
  seas 5 to 8 feet for Long Island Sound.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound, The south shore and eastern bays of 
  Long Island, and New York Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ350-353-355-171200-
/O.CON.KOKX.SR.W.0003.000000T0000Z-201217T1200Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
331 AM EST Thu Dec 17 2020

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and 
  seas 15 to 20 feet.

* WHERE...The ocean waters south of Long Island out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine
339 
WHUS71 KOKX 171105
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Upton NY
605 AM EST Thu Dec 17 2020

ANZ350-353-355-171600-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SR.W.0003.000000T0000Z-201217T1600Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
605 AM EST Thu Dec 17 2020

...STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 30 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and 
  seas 13 to 18 feet.

* WHERE...The ocean waters south of Long Island out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-171800-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-201217T1800Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
605 AM EST Thu Dec 17 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 
  5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound, The south shore and eastern bays of 
  Long Island, and New York Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine
060 
WHUS71 KOKX 171451
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Upton NY
951 AM EST Thu Dec 17 2020

ANZ350-353-355-172100-
/O.CAN.KOKX.SR.W.0003.000000T0000Z-201217T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.GL.W.0028.201217T1451Z-201217T2100Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
951 AM EST Thu Dec 17 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...North winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 
  10 to 14 feet.

* WHERE...The ocean waters south of Long Island out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-171800-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-201217T1800Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
951 AM EST Thu Dec 17 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 
  4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound, The south shore and eastern bays of 
  Long Island, and New York Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Dec 16, 7:16 AM EST, 2 hours 51 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 16, 7:16 AM EST, 2 hours 51 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
716 AM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain north of the region today. Low pressure
will move off the Mid Atlantic coast this evening and quickly
intensify into a major winter storm tonight into Thursday morning.
High pressure will then build in from the west through the first
half of the weekend before moving offshore late in the day Saturday.
A series of weak disturbances will move across the area Sunday and
Monday, followed by a stronger cold frontal passage Monday night
into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast on track this morning, with just a few minor
adjustments to reflect current observations.

High pressure will remain north of the region today. Meanwhile,
a shortwave over the southern states will become negatively
tilted, resulting in an area of low pressure to develop off the
mid-Atlantic coast later this afternoon. This low will travel
northward, parallel to the coast into late afternoon.

In terms of weather in our local area, expect clouds to increase
from the late morning through the afternoon. By late afternoon, we
should start to see some light snowfall move into the area, mainly
from southwest to northeast. It is possible that it won't be
until after 6pm, that portions of Southeast CT or Long Island
see any precipitation. Temperatures today will range from the
upper 20s to middle 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
***Winter Storm Warning for the entire region***

Snow will continue to overspread the region early this evening as
low pressure travels northward along the eastern seaboard. This low
is then expected to make a turn to the east, passing south of Long
Island. The main forecast question is close does the low get to the
local region. This will determine how much warm air works into the
region, which will determine how much snow vs mixing occurs.

There should be plenty of cold air in place for the precipitation to
start as all snow, and the snow may fall moderate to locally heavy
at times, before any change over occurs after midnight.

This initial round of snow may be where most of the coastal sections
get their share of heavy snow. Thereafter, warmer air aloft at
around at around 750 mb will move in from east to west, mainly along
the coast. There is still uncertainty as to how far this warm air
advects inland. As a result of this warm nose, a transition to a
wintry mix (snow/sleet/rain) is expected across southern Long Island
(mainly the Twin Forks and immediate south shore). This will cut
snow totals for these areas. Further from the coast, precipitation
is expected to remain all snow.

Despite the uncertainty with how much mixing occurs at the coast,
have decided to upgrade the remaining watch area to warnings. The
one location with the most uncertainty is the southeastern section
of Suffolk county. Even if only 4 or 5 inches of snow occurs, with a
change over to a wintry mix, felt that impact alone will warrant
the winter storm headlines.

As the low makes it's eastward trek, winds will shift more to
the north and allow colder air to work into the region. Changing
any mixed precipitation or rain back to all snow along the
coast. Some additional accumulation is possible during this time
frame which would be early Thursday morning.

Storm total snow amounts will be 12-16 inches across portions of
northeast New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, and southern
Connecticut. 10 to 14 inches for New York City and western Long
Island, and 4 to 12 across eastern Long Island and southeastern
Connecticut. This large range is due to continued uncertainty.

Winds will also increase tonight, as the pressure gradient
increases between the strong high and the developing low
pressure. Northeast winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts as high as
50 are possible (some isolated wind gusts of 55 mph are also
possible) mainly along the coast.

The low pulls away Thursday (much of the area dries out by the
afternoon, with some lingering snow for eastern areas), with
winds diminishing (though it will still be windy in the morning)
skies clearing into the afternoon, and well below normal
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A progressive, yet amplified upper flow will feature a longwave
trough moving offshore to close out the week with ridging for the
first half of the weekend. However, a broad upper trough will once
again reestablish itself for the second half of the weekend into
early next week.

At the surface, gusty north winds (up to 20 mph) will linger into
the first half of Friday as low pressure slowly pulls away across
the north Atlantic, while a south to north elongated ridge builds
toward the eastern seaboard. The latter of which will build across
the area Saturday and then offshore by evening.
For Sunday into Monday, a disjointed upper trough will send a series
of weak shortwaves into the area with a chance of some light
precipitation Sunday, with mainly rain at the coast and a rain/snow
mix inland. Due to mild temperatures and the light nature of the
precipitation, any accumulation will be minor at best. A stronger
cold front will then move across the area Monday night into Tuesday
with another shot of some light precipitation.

Temperatures will gradually moderate through the period, with
readings 5 to 10 degree below normal at the start, to slightly above
normal readings by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE TODAY INTO
 EARLY THURSDAY***

High pressure over the region early this morning, weakens as a low
pressure system over the southeastern states approaches. Another
low develops along the southeastern coast late this morning
and quickly intensifies, tracking to the northeast. This
deepening storm passes to the south and east tonight into
Thursday.

VFR conditions through this morning, then conditions will
quicklylower to IFR and LIFR as snow develops by late
afternoon, and increases in intensity going into this evening. A
period of VLIFR is possible with heavy snow this evening into
late tonight.

Winds N to NE 5-10 kt, become more NE this morning and increase to
10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt developing late in the day. The
highest winds will be late tonight, NE 15-25kt G30-40kt,
occasionally gusting as high as 50kt east of the New York City
terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

The afternoon KJFK, KLGA, and KEWR haze potential forecast is
YELLOW, which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

Start time of snow on Wednesday could be 1-2 hours off.
Amendments late this afternoon into tonight as snow develops and
increases in intensity.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Thursday...IFR to MVFR in snow, ending during the late morning
for NYC terminals and N/W, and during the afternoon east of NYC
terminals, with improvement to VFR. N wind 15-25kt, G30-40kt in
the morning, subsiding 20-30kt by around noon. N winds diminish
Thursday evening to 5-10kt. Storm total snowfall forecast of 10
to 15 inches, with highest total across northwestern most
terminals. For southeastern most terminals 8 to 12 inches is
expected for KJFK and KISP terminals.
.Friday-Saturday...VFR.
.Sunday...Mainly VFR, possibly MVFR with snow showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at:
http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
As a deepening low along the Mid Atlantic coast this afternoon
begins to track toward the forecast waters northeast wind gusts will
quickly increase to gale force. Winds will increase from the western
waters to the east and north early this evening. A gale warning
remains in effect for all the waters late today into early Thursday
afternoon. Frequent gusts up to 45 kt are expected, and from late
tonight into early Thursday morning occasional gusts up to 50 kt are
possible on the ocean waters and eastern Long Island Sound and the
eastern bays as the deep low passes just to the south. Conditions
will be improving Thursday as the low begins to track east of the
forecast waters.
A gale warning will remain on the ocean waters through Thursday
afternoon, and from mid afternoon into early Thursday evening SCA
conditions will be likely on the remainder of the waters.

Northerly winds will continue to gradually diminish Thursday night
into Friday as high pressure builds in from the west.
Sub SCA seas are expected on the ocean by Saturday morning and will
then remain there through the remainder of the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is an increasing potential for significant snowfall late
Wednesday afternoon/evening into Thursday morning, with liquid
equivalent QPF of 1-1.5 inches. Any melting should be slow as high
temperatures remain below 40 until the weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Surge is expected to build to 2 to 2 1/2 ft in most spots
across Lower NY/NJ harbor, W LIS, and south shore bays of W LI
on NE winds ramping up to solid gale Wed PM. Widespread minor
coastal impacts are expected along the south shore bays of
Nassau County. Along W LI Sound, combo of 3-5 ft surf and
elevated water levels will have potential for local moderate
coastal impacts for shoreline roads and properties. Elsewhere,
potential for localized minor coastal impacts. If guidance
continues to trend upward with surge, with GFS wind speeds
trending towards NAM strength wind fields, may have to expand
coverage of advisories for Wed PM.

Storm surge will likely peak out at 4-5 ft in spots Wednesday
Night during time of low tide, but then is likely to settle back
to 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 ft during the times of high tide as winds
shift to the north. These water levels, during a higher
astronomical tide Thu AM, will bring potential for more
widespread minor to moderate coastal impacts with Thursday
morning/early aft high tide. Highest probability of widespread
moderate coastal flood impacts (2 to locally 3 ft inundation)
is along vulnerable south shore bays of LI and Queens with
limited tidal drainage, with widespread minor to locally
moderate impacts (1 to locally 2ft inundation) elsewhere. Have
stayed close to deterministic surge guidance and NYHOPS weighted
mean, with expectation of wind shifting to a less conducive N
flow for surge. Will have to monitor guidance trends.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Thursday for CTZ005>012.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EST
     Thursday for CTZ009.
NY...Winter Storm Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Thursday for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EST
     Thursday for NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     afternoon for NYZ080-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
     Thursday for NYZ179.
NJ...Winter Storm Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Thursday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Thursday for
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Thursday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 16, 3:49 AM EST, 6 hours 18 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
349 AM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

CTZ005>008-010>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>070-072-074-075-079-
081-170900-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-
Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northeastern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
349 AM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM
EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation according to Standard Operating Procedures is
requested and appreciated. Please safely report significant weather
conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ009-NYZ071-073-078-176-177-170900-
Southern Fairfield-Southern Westchester-Bronx-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
349 AM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM
EST THURSDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM
EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation according to Standard Operating Procedures is
requested and appreciated. Please safely report significant weather
conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ080-178-170900-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southern Queens-
349 AM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM
EST THURSDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Coastal Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation according to Standard Operating Procedures is
requested and appreciated. Please safely report significant weather
conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ179-170900-
Southern Nassau-
349 AM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM
EST THURSDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
EST THURSDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Coastal Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation according to Standard Operating Procedures is
requested and appreciated. Please safely report significant weather
conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-170900-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
349 AM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ350-353-355-170900-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
349 AM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

The office that day

Everything else NWS New York, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 16, 2:51 PM ESTCoastal Flood WarningOKXNassau, Suffolk, Westchester12 hr
Dec 16, 2:51 PM ESTCoastal Flood WarningOKXNassau, Queens, Suffolk23 hr
Dec 16, 2:51 PM ESTCoastal Flood AdvisoryOKXKings, Nassau, New York, Richmond, Suffolk, Westchester23 hr
Dec 16, 5:31 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementOKXBronx, Kings, Nassau, New York, Queens, Suffolk74 min

Nearby

Storm Warnings in New York, 2020Every storm warning in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.