Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Twin Cities, MN

877 
WWUS53 KMPX 120046
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
746 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

MNC041-121-145-153-120115-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0193.000000T0000Z-201012T0115Z/
Douglas MN-Pope MN-Todd MN-Stearns MN-
746 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN DOUGLAS...EASTERN POPE...TODD AND NORTHWESTERN STEARNS
COUNTIES...

At 745 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles southeast of Parkers Prairie to near Lake
Osakis to 9 miles east of Lake Hassel, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Lake Osakis around 750 PM CDT.
  Eagle Bend around 800 PM CDT.
  Long Prairie, Brooten, Bertha and Hewitt around 805 PM CDT.
  Browerville, Belgrade and Clarissa around 810 PM CDT.
  Staples around 825 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Glenwood Airport, Westport, Nelson, Round Prairie, Grove Lake,
Villard, Miltona, Padua, Rose City and Clotho.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4637 9483 4629 9482 4570 9487 4541 9496
      4541 9537 4584 9529 4610 9535 4611 9534
      4611 9514 4637 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 232DEG 39KT 4610 9524 4589 9518 4538 9536 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Borghoff

230 
WWUS53 KMPX 120059
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
759 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

MNC041-121-145-153-120115-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0193.000000T0000Z-201012T0115Z/
Douglas MN-Pope MN-Todd MN-Stearns MN-
759 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN DOUGLAS...EASTERN POPE...WESTERN TODD AND NORTHWESTERN
STEARNS COUNTIES...

At 759 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles west of Eagle Bend to near Lake Osakis to 8
miles west of Brooten, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Eagle Bend and Lake Osakis around 805 PM CDT.
  Bertha around 810 PM CDT.
  Long Prairie around 815 PM CDT.
  Browerville and Clarissa around 820 PM CDT.
  Staples around 830 PM CDT.
  Sauk Centre around 835 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4637 9483 4629 9482 4570 9487 4541 9496
      4541 9537 4584 9529 4611 9525 4611 9514
      4624 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 231DEG 36KT 4616 9514 4594 9508 4548 9529 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Borghoff

249 
WWUS53 KMPX 120114
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
814 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

MNC041-121-145-153-120124-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0193.000000T0000Z-201012T0115Z/
Douglas MN-Pope MN-Todd MN-Stearns MN-
814 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN DOUGLAS...EASTERN
POPE...WESTERN TODD AND NORTHWESTERN STEARNS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
815 PM CDT...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central and west central Minnesota.

Remember, a Tornado Warning still remains in effect for southwestern 
Stearns County until 830 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 4637 9483 4629 9482 4570 9487 4541 9496
      4541 9537 4584 9529 4611 9525 4611 9514
      4624 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 223DEG 37KT 4627 9500 4605 9494 4559 9515 

$$

Borghoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
630 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

Development of storms late this afternoon along the western border
appears to be on track with previous thinking. CAMs are in very
good agreement in general. Most CAMs suggest two lines at first,
which seems to match up with satellite trends this afternoon, and
then eventually one line. A surface low is also evident in east
central South Dakota. A narrow corridor exists with surface dew
points in the upper 50s to lower 60s, which is where the severe
weather is most likely. This low does translate to west central MN
by 7 pm, so a brief tornado cannot be ruled out early, but the
vast majority of concern is damaging wind from bowing segments
along with hail to some extent. SPC discussion describes all of
this very well.

Otherwise, the timing of storms has been slowed a bit from this
morning, with the storms reaching the west metro no earlier than
10 pm, and then Wisconsin after midnight. Light rain will linger
for a few hours, especially in eastern MN and western WI.

Monday will be a mostly sunny day in western MN, with clearing
Monday morning/midday in eastern MN and western WI. West winds
will become gusty, and there may be some fire weather concerns if
temps get a little warmer with lower dew points. For now, relative
humidity levels should drop to 25 to 30 percent. Another trough
approaches quickly Monday night, but it will be weak with no
appreciable effects other than some mid and high level clouds and
a switch in wind direction.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

The long term period begins with a large scale trough sliding
eastwards through central Canada with high pressure building to
our west as wide-scale subsidence becomes apparent. This brief
period of high pressure will be short lived as a deepening
shortwave trough pushes into the area by the second half of
Wednesday resulting in another chance for showers across the area.
Compared to yesterday, this area of showers is a bit further
south, affecting mainly central Minnesota, but this trend would be
good to mitigate some of the drought conditions seen across the
area. We once again see a return to wide-scale subsidence behind
this shortwave as the larger trough rotates eastwards across
southeastern Canada, with northwesterly flow aloft keeping
conditions relatively cool and dry.

Cool and dry conditions are expected to remain the case through
the end of the period with high temperatures struggling to get
out of the 40s beginning Thursday and continuing through the
weekend. On the other side of things, low temperatures will be in
the mid 20s to low 30s likely giving us our first stretch of
sustained below freezing conditions for this fall season. Most
areas will likely see below freezing overnight temps except in the
warmer parts of the Twin Cities metro.

Overall weather threat is low for the period, with some showers
possible on Wednesday and maybe a slight chance on Friday, with a
period of cooler weather to go along with this.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

Strong SSE winds to continue this evening in advance of the
developing line of thunderstorms along the MN/Dakota border. As
the line shifts east, winds will shift to W and NW while still
maintaining the breezy speeds. Have used TEMPO groups to give some
wiggle room for the initiation of the storms into each terminal
with more solid RA/TSRA afterwards. MVFR conditions are likely
with IFR conditions, mainly due to visibility, possible as the
storms move across the area. Lingering showers behind the line
look to develop overnight along with MVFR ceilings in eastern MN
and western WI that will persist through daybreak before VFR
conditions return during the day Monday.

KMSP...Start time of storms into MSP looks to be around 04z with
thunderstorms persisting thru midnight. Showers will linger
overnight along with MVFR ceilings in the 025-030 range (nothing
below 2 kft expected). Conditions will improve out of MVFR range
by late morning, so the MVFR ceilings will remain through the
Monday morning push.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR. Wind WNW 10-20 kts.
Wed...Mainly VFR. Chance -RA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts becoming W.
Thu...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDH
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
108 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
121200-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
108 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely to develop after 5:00 p.m. in far
western Minnesota, move eastward across the rest of Minnesota this
evening, reaching western Wisconsin around midnight. Some storms
could be severe, especially in western Minnesota. The main threat
is damaging wind. Hail is a secondary threat. The threat for
tornadoes is low, but cannot be ruled out in west central or
southwest Minnesota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Dry and breezy conditions could lead to elevated fire weather
concerns for Monday afternoon, and also Tuesday, especially
across western Minnesota.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed tonight.

tdk

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
703 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     HAIL             CYRUS                   45.61N 95.74W
10/11/2020  E0.25 INCH       POPE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PHONED IN REPORT.

&&

CTG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
706 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NNE CANBY             44.73N 96.26W
10/11/2020  M57 MPH          YELLOW MEDICINE    MN   ASOS

&&

CTG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
708 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0649 PM     TSTM WND GST     CYRUS                   45.61N 95.74W
10/11/2020  E57 MPH          POPE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CTG