Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Twin Cities, MN

956 
WWUS53 KMPX 030017
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
717 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020

MNC043-030026-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-200603T0030Z/
Faribault MN-
717 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN FARIBAULT COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4369 9356 4366 9305 4350 9305 4350 9360
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 274DEG 38KT 4358 9327 

$$

MNC047-030030-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-200603T0030Z/
Freeborn MN-
717 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN FREEBORN COUNTY...

At 716 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Glenville, or 7
miles southeast of Albert Lea, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Albert Lea, Alden, Glenville, Emmons, London, Hayward, Twin Lakes,
Conger and Myrtle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4369 9356 4366 9305 4350 9305 4350 9360
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 274DEG 38KT 4358 9327 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
403 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020

A rather complex convective scenario is unfolding today. A QLCS
stretching from northwest WI to central and west central MN is
maintaining its intensity as it sinks southward this afternoon.
This activity is begin driven by relatively modest MUCAPE and
steep mid level lapse rates. Bulk shear is also modest at less
than 30 kts. The lapse rates have allowed some cores to produce
brief instances of dime to as large as golfball size hail within
the entire extent of the line, but individual cores haven't
persisted for more than 10 to 15 minutes due to the lack of shear
making them impossible to warn for. The surface front is located
across southern Minnesota and MUCAPE increases with southward
extent from the current line of storms. It is not entirely clear
how the transition from the northern activity to southern activity
will occur. The current thinking is the ongoing activity may just
continue sinking to the southeast slowly and become more intense
as it gradually becomes more surface based, while additional
cells (potentially supercells with very large hail and damaging
winds) begin to develop ahead of the current activity near the
surface front toward 00Z. An increasing heavy rain threat is also
developing if the short wave to the north orphans the QLCS in a
east-west fashion early this evening. Flash flood guidance is
only 1-1.5 inches within 3 hours in the metro.

Convection will eventually sink southeast this evening with clear
skies overnight into Wednesday. Highs Wednesday will be continued
warm with boundary layer profiles supporting highs in the mid
80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020

Zonal flow will dominate for the rest of the week before ridging
builds across the Plains this weekend and early next week.

A short wave on the southern flank of a larger system over
southern Canada will traverse the Upper Midwest late Thursday and
Thursday night. This could spark a complex of showers and storms
and there is a Marginal Risk in place across southwestern MN.
Moisture will increase ahead of this feature with pwats rising
toward 1.75 inches, but weak lapse rates may greatly limit the
amount of instability this far north.

The ridging will bring warmer temps in Sunday and Monday following
the passage of a surface warm front. A trough over the Rockies
will allow a feed of robust moisture advection northward into the
Upper Midwest. At the same time, newly named Tropical Storm
Cristobal in the Gulf could be making landfall somewhere on the
northwestern Gulf Coast early next week. The timing of the
trough's advancement eastward next week could allow that system to
directly or indirectly impact the CWA. GFS brings a plume of pwats
greater than 2.25 inches up along the cold front axis into the
region Tuesday. ECMWF is farther east, however indirect moisture
advection would still likely enhance any rainfall totals in
thunderstorm activity with the fropa. This will need to be watched
for a significant flood risk somewhere over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020

VFR conditions with mostly clear skies are expected this morning,
and then widespread thunderstorms are expected across central and
southern MN this afternoon and early evening. A southwest to
northeast oriented line of activity looks to push in from the
eastern Dakotas, possibly reaching northern/western sites between
16z and 19Z (KAXN/KSTC), and central/southern sites
(KRWF/KMSP/KMKT) between 20Z and 22Z. The eastward extent of the
thunderstorms is a bit uncertain, but any activity that holds
together would reach WI sites (KRNH/KEAU) after 22Z. Given more
warm and humid air in place over southern MN, the storms look to
have the potential to be stronger at KRWF and KMKT. Large hail and
strong winds are the greatest risks. Additional (supercell)
storms may develop late this afternoon ahead of the main line, but
those still look to occur south of the TAF sites. MVFR ceilings
and MVFR/IFR look the most probable with the storms.

KMSP...There's been fairly decent consistency pointing toward the
22Z-02Z time frame as having the highest chance of thunderstorm
activity. Large hail cannot be ruled out with this activity, along
with strong wind gusts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind NW at 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Evening MVFR/TSRA possible. Wind SW at 10 kts bcmg NW
at 10-20 kts.
FRI...VFR with chance of MVFR/TSRA. Wind NW 10G20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Borghoff
LONG TERM...Borghoff
AVIATION...LS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
432 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
030945-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
432 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening,
generally along and south of an Olivia, to Twin Cities metro, to
Bloomer Wisconsin line. Large hail and damaging winds are the
primary threats. In addition, some storms may produce torrential
rain which could lead to isolated flooding issues. The greatest
threat for severe storms is from southern Minnesota to west
central Wisconsin, or along and south of a New Ulm, to Red Wing,
to Eau Claire line, where there is an Enhanced Risk of severe
storms. There is also a risk for tornadoes in this area, but it
is low.

Heat and humidity will remain in place today, with heat indices
in the low to mid 90s expected in east central and south central
Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. Once the afternoon showers
and thunderstorms move in, heat indices will reduce.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional thunderstorms are possible Thursday, and from Saturday
night into Monday. There is a marginal risk of severe storms in
southern Minnesota on Thursday.

Stay tuned to future outlooks for information about the severe
weather potential with the weekend thunderstorm activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon
and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
545 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TORNADO          4 W WALDORF             43.93N 93.77W
06/02/2020                   BLUE EARTH         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
557 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             2 S PEMBERTON           43.98N 93.78W
06/02/2020  E1.00 INCH       BLUE EARTH         MN   PUBLIC

&&

BPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
559 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S PEMBERTON           43.98N 93.78W
06/02/2020                   BLUE EARTH         MN   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF DOWNED TREE BRANCHES ACROSS THE
            ROAD. SOME LARGER THAN 12 INCH IN DIAMETER.

&&

BPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
614 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             WALDORF                 43.94N 93.70W
06/02/2020  E1.75 INCH       WASECA             MN   STORM CHASER

            REPORTED VIA TWITTER AS SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN
            A GOLF BALL. PHOTO INCLUDED. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
629 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND GST     ALBERT LEA              43.65N 93.37W
06/02/2020  M63 MPH          FREEBORN           MN   ASOS

            55KT WIND GUST REPORTED BY THE ASOS.

&&

BPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
631 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 ESE FAIRMONT          43.63N 94.42W
06/02/2020  M51 MPH          MARTIN             MN   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KFRM FAIRMONT AP.

&&

MKM