Gale Warning 1, NWS Mobile, AL

877 
WHUS74 KMOB 102017
MWWMOB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mobile AL
217 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

GMZ650-655-670-675-110430-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-200111T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.GL.W.0001.200111T0300Z-200111T2100Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0004.200111T2100Z-200112T0000Z/
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
217 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM
CST SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 6 PM CST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, southeast winds 20 to 30 kt with 
  gusts up to 40 kt and seas 8 to 13 feet expected. For the 
  first Small Craft Advisory, southeast winds 20 to 25 kt with 
  gusts up to 35 kt and seas 6 to 8 feet. For the second Small 
  Craft Advisory, southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  35 kt and seas 9 to 11 feet expected.

* WHERE...Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 
  60 NM, Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola 
  FL from 20 to 60 NM, Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to 
  Pascagoula MS out 20 NM and Coastal waters from Okaloosa 
  Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL out 20 NM.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST
  Saturday. For the first Small Craft Advisory, until 9 PM CST
  this evening. For the second Small Craft Advisory, from 3 PM to
  6 PM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ630>632-110430-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-200112T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.MF.Y.0002.200111T0000Z-200111T1600Z/
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
217 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
SATURDAY...
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
CST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Dense Fog Advisory, dense fog will reduce
  visibility to 1 mile or less. For the Small Craft Advisory, 
  southeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt.

* WHERE...Northern Mobile Bay, Southern Mobile Bay and 
  Mississippi Sound.

* WHEN...For the Dense Fog Advisory, from 6 PM this evening to 
  10 AM CST Saturday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 PM 
  CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Low 
  visibility will make navigation difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

If you must navigate, proceed with caution. Use proper fog
signals. Make sure all running lights are on. Remember to use
your radar and compass.

&&

$$

GMZ633>636-110430-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-200112T0000Z/
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
217 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt.

* WHERE...Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay, Western Choctawhatchee 
  Bay, Pensacola Bay System and Perdido Bay.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

352 
WHUS74 KMOB 110410
MWWMOB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1010 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

GMZ650-655-670-675-111200-
/O.CON.KMOB.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200111T2100Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0004.200111T2100Z-200112T0000Z/
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
1010 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 6 PM CST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, southeast winds 20 to 30 knots with
  gusts up to 40 knots and seas 8 to 13 feet expected. For the
  first Small Craft Advisory, southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with
  gusts over 30 knots and seas 6 to 8 feet. For the second Small 
  Craft Advisory, southwest winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 
  30 knots and seas 9 to 11 feet expected.

* WHERE...Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 
  60 NM, Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola 
  FL from 20 to 60 NM, Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to 
  Pascagoula MS out 20 NM and Coastal waters from Okaloosa 
  Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL out 20 NM.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM 
  CST Saturday. For the first Small Craft Advisory, until 9 PM 
  CST this evening. For the second Small Craft Advisory, from 3 
  PM to 6 PM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ630>632-111200-
/O.CON.KMOB.MF.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-200111T1600Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-200112T0000Z/
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
1010 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST
SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Dense Fog Advisory, dense fog will reduce
  visibility to 1 mile or less. For the Small Craft Advisory,
  southeast winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts over 30 knots.

* WHERE...Northern Mobile Bay, Southern Mobile Bay and 
  Mississippi Sound.

* WHEN...For the Dense Fog Advisory, until 10 AM CST Saturday. 
  For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 PM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Low 
  visibility will make navigation difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

If you must navigate, proceed with caution. Use proper fog
signals. Make sure all running lights are on. Remember to use
your radar and compass.

&&

$$

GMZ633>636-111200-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-200112T0000Z/
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
1010 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts over 30 knots.

* WHERE...Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay, Western Choctawhatchee 
  Bay, Pensacola Bay System and Perdido Bay.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

657 
WHUS74 KMOB 110951
MWWMOB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mobile AL
351 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

GMZ630>632-112100-
/O.CAN.KMOB.MF.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-200111T1600Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-200112T0000Z/
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
351 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, southeast winds 15 to 25 
  knots with gusts over 30 knots.

* WHERE...Mississippi Sound, Southern Mobile Bay and Northern 
  Mobile Bay.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Low 
  visibility will make navigation difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ650-655-670-675-112100-
/O.CON.KMOB.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200111T2100Z/
/O.EXT.KMOB.SC.Y.0004.200111T2100Z-200112T0900Z/
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
351 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
3 AM CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, southeast winds 20 to 30 knots with
  gusts up to 40 knots and seas 8 to 13 feet expected. For the
  Small Craft Advisory this afternoon into tonight, southwest
  winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots and seas 9 to 11
  feet expected. Winds will decrease to below 20 knots by this 
  evening, but seas will remain higher than 7 feet into the early 
  morning hours on Sunday.

* WHERE...Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 
  60 NM, Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola 
  FL from 20 to 60 NM, Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to 
  Pascagoula MS out 20 NM and Coastal waters from Okaloosa 
  Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL out 20 NM.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 3 PM CST this afternoon. 
  For the Small Craft Advisory, from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM 
  CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ633>636-112100-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-200112T0000Z/
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
351 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts over 30 knots.

* WHERE...Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay, Western Choctawhatchee 
  Bay, Pensacola Bay System and Perdido Bay.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

665 
WHUS74 KMOB 112116
MWWMOB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mobile AL
316 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

GMZ650-655-120530-
/O.EXP.KMOB.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200111T2100Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-200112T0900Z/
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
316 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  7 to 10 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to 
  Pensacola FL out 20 NM and Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to 
  Pascagoula MS out 20 NM.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ670-675-120530-
/O.EXP.KMOB.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200111T2100Z/
/O.EXT.KMOB.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-200112T1200Z/
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
316 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  6 to 11 feet.

* WHERE...Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 
  60 NM and Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to 
  Pensacola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ630>633-112230-
/O.CAN.KMOB.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-200112T0000Z/
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-
316 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The strong winds which prompted the advisory have subsided below
20 knots.

$$

GMZ634>636-120000-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-200112T0000Z/
Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
316 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southerly winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots.

* WHERE...Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay, Western Choctawhatchee Bay 
  and Pensacola Bay System.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1152 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...VFR mid to upper level cloud decks continue to
spread across most of the region late this evening, with MVFR
ceilings beginning to edge into southeast MS. We expect ceilings
to gradually lower to MVFR levels through Friday morning across
locations west of I-65 and along the coast, and then across the
remainder of the region into Friday afternoon. Ceilings may also
lower to IFR thresholds across southeast MS and some locations
along the coast by Friday afternoon. Isolated to scattered light
rain showers will continue to develop over portions of southeast
MS and southwest AL through Friday morning, with increasing
coverage across the region by Friday afternoon. East to southeast
winds will remain elevated between 5-10 knots inland and a little
higher near the coast overnight. Wind speeds pick up during the
day Friday, with some gusts over 25 knots possible late Friday
morning into Friday afternoon. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 944 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2020/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

NEAR TERM UPDATE...Gradual moistening continues across our
forecast area this evening underneath southwest flow aloft well in
advance of a deepening trough over the western CONUS. A large
surface ridge of high pressure is located over the western
Atlantic, just off the New England coast this evening, while an
area of low pressure is taking shape over the vicinity of west TX
and southern NM. Clouds continue to thicken across our region this
evening, while east-southeast wind flow is occasionally becoming
gusty near the coast. Weak isentropic ascent is supporting the
development of a few showers just west of our southeast MS
counties this evening. We tapered POPs down a bit through the
remainder of the evening, keeping chance POPs mainly confined to
southeast MS. Scattered rain showers may tend to develop a little
further east into southwest AL after the 06-09Z time frame. Minor
adjustments were also made to hourly temps and dewpoints based on
the latest trends. /21

COASTAL HAZARDS UPDATE...Increasing southeasterly flow offshore
and the persistent fetch is resulting in increased surf heights
along local beaches this evening. We expect surf heights to build
to 4-6 feet as early as tonight with indications that surf will
continue to build to 8-10 feet by Saturday. The High Surf Advisory
has been adjusted to start as of now along our local beaches, and
we have also upgraded to a High Surf Warning from late Friday
night into early Saturday evening for the potential of large
breaking waves building to 8-10 feet. We will continue to monitor
water levels along the coast tonight, but the potential for minor
coastal flooding currently looks to be greatest Friday evening
into Saturday, especially around times of high tide Friday night.
07/21

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 618 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2020/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
00Z issuance...Broken to overcast VFR cloud decks will spread
across the forecast area this evening before gradually lowering to
MVFR levels late tonight through early Friday morning. Ceilings
may eventually lower to IFR thresholds across portions of the
region, especially across parts of southeast MS and near the coast
by Friday afternoon. Isolated to scattered light rain showers will
develop over portions of southeast MS and southwest AL through
Friday morning, with increasing coverage across the region by
Friday afternoon. East to southeast winds will remain elevated
between 10-15 knots overnight, with occasional gusts over 25 knots
possible late Friday morning into Friday afternoon. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2020/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday/...Synoptically, the developing
mid- and upper system advances and the surface pressure gradient
force continues to increase as strong sfc high pressure is to our
east and deepening surface low pressure is evolving to our west.
Due to both positive pressure and moisture advections, clouds
thicken and lower and the weather becoming gradually windier
overnight through tomorrow afternoon. A mild night with
temperatures mainly in the 60s to near 70 deg(F) along the coast
(i.e., very well mixed). Some interior areas of Crenshaw and
Butler counties may reach upper 50s deg(F)before stalling and
then slowly rising. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the southern
portion of the area beginning mid Friday morning. /23 JMM

SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...A significant
weather event looks likely through the day Saturday. On Friday, a
strong expansive ridge will be centered over the southwestern
Atlantic as a deep upper trough digs into the southern Great
Plains/Arklatex region. With strengthening southwesterly flow
aloft, moisture will quickly begin to stream northward. At the
surface, high pressure off the mid-atlantic coast will lead to
increasing southerly flow. A surface warm front will begin to
surge northward late Friday afternoon into Friday night. Showers
will be possible in the strengthening isentropic ascent near and
around the boundary. Given the presence of MUCAPE values around
500 J/KG and 35-45 knots, a few rumbles of thunder could be
possible ahead of the warm front Friday afternoon into Friday
night. Behind the warm front, an expansive warm sector will
develop with MLCape values of 500 to 1000 J/KG during the late
night hours Friday. With continued shear and weak but non-zero
forcing for ascent, this region will need to be monitored for low
end severe potential. Along with the strengthening southerly flow,
patchy to areas of dense advection fog could form over the bays
and coastal counties. A high risk of rip currents will also be
possible as surf increases.

By late Friday night into early Saturday morning the upper trough
will move into the Arklatex region and take on a negative tilt. A
stout 500 mb jet rounds the base of the trough and overspreads the
warm sector as a surface cyclone develops over east Texas and moves
northeast into western Tennessee. Low-level winds will strenghten in
response to the tightening gradient over our area. Wind gusts to 40
mph will be possible on the day on Saturday and a Wind Advisory is
in effect. Along with the strengthening winds, we could see a period
of minor coastal flooding in our flood prone barrier islands. A cold
front will surge southeast across the area on Saturday with storms
developing across the warm sector. A strong Quasi-Linear Convective
System (QLCS) will likely develop along the front Friday night and
progress into the deep south by Saturday morning. Severe weather
looks likely across our area and more details on that can be found
in the severe section below. The front and QLCS will move east
across our area during the day on Saturday with storms likely
subsiding by Saturday night as the front pushes offshore.

Temperatures will be mild on Friday and Saturday as the warm sector
moves north. Highs on Friday and Saturday will be in the low to mid
70s with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Temperatures on Saturday
could nudge a few degrees warmer if the advection in the open warm
sector are stronger than forecasted.  BB/03

Severe...As mentioned above, a significant severe event is
likely for our area. There could be possibly three waves of severe
weather with the last wave being the most likely severe threat in
the from of a very strong QLCS. Each wave is described in more
detail below.

1. The first round of severe weather could occur late Friday night
into early Saturday morning, along the coast, as the surface warm
front lifts north into our area. Warm advection storms could be
located along and south of the boundary. Bulk shear values appear to
be 40 to 50 knots which would be more than sufficient for rotating
storms. Storm relative helicity values are around 200 m^2/s^2 a
tornado can not be ruled out with any storm that shows rotation.
This would be especially true if any storm is able to ride the warm
front where surface winds are backed and SRH is enhanced. Several of
the longer range convection allowing models have shown this solution
The main failure mode for this convection will be the lack of
instability. This will likely occur during the diurnal minimum and
with a slowly destabilizing warm sector, MLCAPE will likely be
limited. With the main forcing mechanism being warm advection,
storms may struggle to realize the full environmental conditions
leading to just showers with no severe potential. We will have to
monitor the trends of convection carefully.

2. The second threat of severe weather will come with any storms
that develop ahead of the main QLCS progressing across the area. As
the day progresses on Saturday, the warm sector will surge northward
leading to a large area of 1000 to 1500 J/KG of MLCAPE. Given the
general bias of CAPE being under-modeled across our area, this is
quite alarming with a few models hinting at CAPE values approaching
2000 J/KG. Simultaneously, a robust 850 low-level jet will
overspread the warm sector. As a result bulk shear values will
increase to 50 to 60 knots with long cyclonically curving
hodographs. This environment would be capable of producing discrete
to semi-discrete supercells.  Coupled with long curved hodographs an
0-1KM SRH values approaching 300-400 m^2/s^2. All severe hazards
could be possible including tornadoes with any storms that can
utilize the full environment. Given the low-level shear a strong
tornado cannot be ruled. There is one major caveat to this threat.
There will be enough forcing in place for a fair amount of cells
to form in the open warm sector. If too much convection occurs,
storms may interact leading to more of a stormy mess rather than
discrete to semi- discrete cells. This would inhibit the severe
potential with this specific wave of storms.

3. The final round will come with the quick moving QLCS located
right ahead of the front. With the environment mentioned above still
in place, the QLCS will be possible of damaging winds and mesovortex
tornadoes. Given 925mb winds will be approaching 50 to 55 knots, it
will not take much to bring those winds to the surface. Given the
low level wind fields, damaging winds up to 70 mph will be possible
over a wide swath of our area. Winds may also remain backed at the
surface leading to a higher mesovortex tornado potential along the
line. A few models have hinted at an idea of a slower solution
leading to more instability, as well as, the potential that shear
vectors could re-orient themselves allowing convection to out
pace its cold pool and take on a more semi-discrete mode leading
to an increase in tornado potential. While unlikely, this is not
completely out of the question and will need to be monitored in
near term updates. We want to make note that while the other
severe potentials mentioned above could pose a significant
hazards, the QLCS will have the most significant severe potential
and will pose the greatest threat to our area. BB/03

For Sunday into Sunday night, a cold front left by Saturday's
system will be located Sunday morning from the northeast Gulf into
the central Gulf then lifts slowly northward as a warm front to
extend from the mouth of the Mississippi river into the western
Florida panhandle by late Sunday night. An upper trof over the
central states meanwhile ejects off to the Great Lakes region
along with a series of southern stream shortwaves set to move
across the forecast area as the warm front nears the coast. During
this transition, mainly dry conditions over the area Sunday
morning will be followed by scattered showers developing Sunday
afternoon mainly along and east of I-65, then likely to
categorical pops follow for Sunday night. Highs on Sunday will be
in the mid 60s to around 70 then lows Sunday night generally range
from the lower to mid 50s well inland to the lower 60s at the
coast. A high risk of rip currents continues along area beaches
through Sunday night. /29

LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...The warm front located
initially from the mouth of the Mississippi river into the western
Florida panhandle continues slowly northward into central
Alabama/Mississippi Monday night. A series of southern stream
shortwaves continue to move across the region meanwhile and with
the movement of the frontal boundary, will have likely to
categorical pops on Monday then for Monday night will have chance
pops near the coast with likely pops further inland. The frontal
boundary dissipates on Tuesday, but with a series of shortwaves
continuing to move across the region, expect that coverage will be
sufficient to have good chance to likely pops during the day on
Tuesday, then chance pops follow for Tuesday night. Chance to
likely pops return on Wednesday while a cold front approaches from
the west and a pesky series of shortwaves continue to move across
the area, then the front moves on Thursday with at least scattered
convective coverage. /29

Hydrology...Minor flooding continues for several rivers in
southeast Mississippi and Southwest Alabama. Most rivers will be
cresting within the next day or so; however, the upcoming pattern
is supportive of several rounds of rain through next week. PWAT
values will range from 1.5 to 2 inches through the weekend leading
to potentially heavy rainfall over already saturated grounds.
Several of our mainstream rivers are already swollen and any heavy
precip within the basins could lead to continued flooding. We will
also have to monitor the potential for flash flooding especially on
Saturday if cells train prior to the arrival of the QLCS. 03/BB

MARINE...Moderate to strong southeasterly winds strengthen Friday
night ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Severe
thunderstorms are likely on Saturday. Have kept Small Craft
Exercise Caution in effect for the bays and protected waters
overnight while a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the
open Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for the
entire area Friday into Saturday. Gusts to gale force are possible
mainly Friday night into Saturday, but it's not clear if these
will occur frequently enough to justify a Gale Warning so have
held off for now. The cold front moves through Saturday night with
a light to moderate northerly flow in the wake of the front which
becomes easterly on Sunday. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday for
     ALZ051>060.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday for
     ALZ261>266.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday for
     ALZ263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Warning from 3 AM to 9 PM CST Saturday for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 3 AM CST Saturday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Wind Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday for
     FLZ201>206.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday for
     FLZ202-204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Warning from 3 AM to 9 PM CST Saturday for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 3 AM CST Saturday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Wind Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday for MSZ067-
     075-076.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday for MSZ078-
     079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday for
     GMZ630>636.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1112 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-110515-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
1112 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A High Surf Advisory has been issued for the Gulf beaches of
Alabama and Northwest Florida tonight, for surf heights increasing
to 4 to 6 feet.

There is a HIGH RISK for rip currents along the Gulf beaches of
Alabama and Northwest Florida.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Severe thunderstorms with damaging straight line winds and
tornadoes will be likely Saturday over the entire area, possibly
beginning late Friday night over southeast Mississippi. Stay
tuned for further updates through Saturday afternoon.

Gusty southerly winds up to 25 mph with frequent gusts up to 40
mph will be likely late Friday night through Saturday. A Wind
Advisory is in effect.

There is a HIGH RISK for rip currents along the Gulf beaches of
Alabama and Northwest Florida through Sunday. High surf with
breaking waves up to 8 to 10 feet is expected late Friday night
and Saturday. Minor coastal flooding is expected late Friday night
into Saturday, especially around times of high tide, occurring in
low lying and flood prone areas along the coast.

Conditions also favor periods of heavy rain on Saturday, possibly
resulting in some localized flooding, and will likely prolong the
current river flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of SkyWarn Severe Storm Spotter networks will likely be
needed Saturday.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-110515-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
1112 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Hazardous conditions for small craft can be expected through tonight.
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the open Gulf waters from
0 to 60 nm out through tonight. Small Craft Should Exercise
caution over all inland bays and sounds through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A few strong to severe storms could develop over the marine area
as early as Friday evening or late Friday night. Severe
thunderstorms will be much more likely to impact the marine area
on Saturday with potential for damaging straight line winds and
potentially tornadoes and/or waterspouts. Heavy rain may also
greatly reduce visibility.

Hazardous conditions for small craft will continue over the marine
area Friday through Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory will
continue over the open Gulf waters from 0 to 60 nm through
Saturday afternoon. A small Craft Advisory is in effect for all
bays and sounds beginning Friday morning and continuing through
Saturday afternoon.

Gusty southerly winds at 20 to 30 mph with frequent higher gusts will
be likely late Friday night through Saturday. Gale conditions will
be possible mostly during the day on Saturday. Stay tuned for
further updates.