Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Melbourne, FL

320 
WGUS72 KMLB 032144
FFSMLB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
544 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020

FLC111-032154-
/O.EXP.KMLB.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-201003T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
St. Lucie FL-
544 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING AT 545 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEASTERN 
ST. LUCIE COUNTY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD ADVISORY...

LAT...LON 2756 8045 2756 8036 2756 8034 2756 8033
      2755 8033 2756 8032 2748 8029 2747 8030
      2748 8028 2747 8029 2746 8028 2744 8044

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1024 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020

.DISCUSSION...

...Flood Watch Across Most of East Central Florida This Weekend...

...The Soggy Weather Pattern Will Extend Well into Next Week...

Plenty of weather to watch today, as the persistent heavy rainfall
event continues, fueled by deep moisture from Tropical Storm
Gamma. The stationary front lingering across southern Florida will
lift northward as a warm front today, reaching northern portions
of central Florida late this evening into tonight. Deep moisture
(PWATs 2.2-2.5") dragged by the front will increase rain chances
from south to north into this afternoon, with peak PoPs 70-80%
for much of the area and 60-70% for northern inland portions.
Additionally, a coastal front pushing eastward across Brevard
County this morning will need to be watched through the day as an
area for possible heavy rain development, with convergence along
the boundary.

Despite a reprieve overnight and early this morning, showers
are expected to ramp up again along the Treasure Coast later this
morning into this afternoon, as the favorable high moisture, low-
level convergence pattern lingers. It will not take much rainfall
to exacerbate ongoing flooding in coastal Martin and St Lucie
counties, so residents there should remain vigilant and stay up to
date on any warnings that are issued through the day.

A Flood Watch is in effect through Sunday night for all ECFL
counties, with the exception of Okeechobee County. Widespread
rainfall amounts of 2-4" and isolated amounts of 6-8" will be
possible as the Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) brings periods of
heavy rainfall. Residents across ECFL, especially in areas that
have ongoing flooding concerns, should continue to monitor the
forecast this weekend, as even new areas of flooding have the
potential to develop. Rises along the St. Johns River, Little
Wekiva, and Shingle Creek are possible, with northern portions of
the area having received 10"+ in September. Remember, turn
around, don't drown!

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR conditions and low stratus across the Treasure Coast will
spread northward through the day. IFR conditions possible at
times, as a warm front pushing from south to north bring periods
of heavy rainfall into tomorrow. Heavy rain looks to develop this
afternoon, mainly after 20Z for terminals from KMLB northward.
However, confidence on timing for the heaviest rain remains low
and low CIG/VIS TEMPOs will likely need to be added in subsequent
TAF packages.

&&

.MARINE...
Showers have developed already across portions of the ECFL
Atlantic waters this morning. Coverage will increase through this
afternoon from north to south, as the persistent stationary front
across southern Florida lifts northward as a warm front. Winds
will veer from NE/E to ESE/SE behind the front, with wind speeds
10-15kts. Seas 3-4 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  80  70  79  70 /  70  80  80  40
MCO  80  69  81  72 /  70  70  70  30
MLB  81  71  85  75 /  80  80  60  30
VRB  82  72  87  76 /  80  60  50  30
LEE  80  68  77  70 /  50  70  80  30
SFB  80  69  80  71 /  60  80  80  40
ORL  80  70  82  73 /  60  80  80  30
FPR  82  73  87  75 /  80  60  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through late Sunday night for Coastal Volusia-Indian
     River-Inland Volusia-Martin-Northern Brevard-Northern Lake-
     Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Southern Lake-St.
     Lucie.

AM...None.
&&

Leahy/Smith

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
424 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-031500-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
424 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Widespread heavy showers and periods of heavy rain will develop
today and tonight, likely leading to flooding in some areas.
Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected through late
Sunday, with isolated higher amounts of 6 to 8 inches possible. A
Flood Watch is in effect for all of east-central Florida, except
Okeechobee County, through Monday morning.

The immediate concern is along the Saint Lucie and Martin County
coast where any additional heavy rain will aggravate ongoing
flooding issues.

Flooding will also be a problem for Orange, Seminole, Volusia,
and Brevard Counties where the ground is saturated due to heavy
rainfall in September.

Never drive through a flooded roadway, it is best to find an
alternate route. Remember, Turn Around, Don't Drown!

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered lightning storms will be capable of
producing occasional cloud-to-ground lightning strikes today
across east-central Florida.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents at all Atlantic beaches
in east-central Florida. While dangerous rip currents will be
present all day, the risk will be greatest after 1230 PM due to
tidal effects. Always swim at a life guarded beach and never enter
the surf alone.

.RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Heavy rainfall this weekend is likely to result in additional
rises along the Saint Johns River. At Astor, the river will
slowly rise into Moderate Flood Stage late this weekend. The
Saint Johns River near Deland, Sanford, and above Lake Harney will
slowly rise and could approach Minor Flood Stage in the coming
week.

Refer to daily Flood Statements from NWS Melbourne for the latest
river levels and forecasts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
Isolated to scattered lightning storms are expected to continue
into Sunday and early next week. Locally heavy rainfall leading to
minor flooding issues along area roadways and poor drainage areas
could occur across all areas of east central Florida this
weekend. A moderate risk of dangerous rip currents will continue
into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters along the coast in Martin, Saint Lucie, Indian River,
Brevard, and Volusia Counties should monitor the weather and self
activate if needed. Reports of flooding will be greatly
appreciated.

Rodriguez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
156 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020

FLZ054-059-031830-
St. Lucie-Indian River-
156 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL
AFFECT NORTHERN ST. LUCIE AND SOUTHEASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES...

At 155 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles southwest
of Lakewood Park, or 11 miles west of Indrio. The storm is nearly
stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Vero Beach South, Pointe West, Lakewood Park, Vero Beach Highland and
South Beach.

Funnel clouds can occasionally touch down and produce brief small
tornadoes. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

LAT...LON 2739 8052 2746 8067 2768 8056 2756 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 211DEG 3KT 2748 8054

Smith