Beach Hazards Statement 26, NWS Melbourne, FL

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
943 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Currently-Overnight...Isolated showers mainly in the form of debris
rains over the interior should largely dissipate by midnight. Lows
will be in the low to mid 70s under a canopy of higher clouds.
Expect light S to SE winds 4 mph or less.

from prev disc...

Wednesday...Hurr Sally is forecast to continue a slow northward
movement, eventually making landfall tomorrow along the northern
gulf coast. Deep moisture will remain in place, with greatest
coverage of showers and storms expected across the interior during
the afternoon. Have PoPs ranging from 20 percent along the Treasure
Coast up to 50 percent across the interior. Some higher cloud cover
will linger across the region with highs in the upper 80s to low
80s.

Thursday-Friday...Sally transitions to an extratropical system over
the Deep South late week as its picked up by a mid level trough. The
various model guidance differ a bit on how quickly the remnants of
Sally move out of the region. The GFS is the faster solution,
showing the system offshore the Carolinas by midday Friday, while
the ECMWF moves the system offshore Saturday morning. Regardless,
low level winds across central Florida transition to southwesterly
in response. Deep moisture remains across northern/interior central
Florida, so have maintained the highest rain chances (50-60 percent)
there. Lower rain chances (40-50 percent) along the Treasure coast
where some drier air will remain. Above average temps with highs in
the low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION....
VFR conditions overnight into Wed morning. Interior sites will
likely see TS in vicinity, or be affected by showers and storms by
mid-late afternoon Wed, potentially reducing visibilities to
MVFR, gusty winds to 25-30 kt and low cigs briefly.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Wednesday...Long period swells from distant Hurricane
Paulette will begin to diminish across the waters into Wed, with
seas falling to 3-5 feet. E/SE winds around 5-10 knots will veer to
the S/SE late into Wed.

Thursday-Friday...South/southwest winds around 10-15 knots prevail
to finish the week as swells continue to decrease from 4-5 feet
Thursday to 3-4 feet Friday. Still, could see hazardous conditions
around inlets during the outgoing tide. Deep moisture will lead to
scattered offshore moving showers and lightning storms each
afternoon.

Saturday-Sunday...Looking forward into the weekend, a period of
hazardous to dangerous boating conditions is expected to develop as
an early season front pushes across the local waters. Strong NE
winds are expected to develop behind a frontal passage, with seas
possibly building in excess of 10 feet on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Influences from astronomical high tides downstream and locally heavy
rainfall upstream have led to a rise at the Saint Johns River at
Astor. Current river level at 2.3 feet, which is at minor flood
stage at this location. Expect levels within minor flood stage
through at least midweek, with a slow fall expected by late week.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

JP/JC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-160400-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
River levels on the Saint Johns River at Astor have been holding
near minor flood stage since early Tuesday. Local rainfall and
tidal influences will keep river levels near minor flood stage
near Astor through at least midweek, with a slow fall expected
by late week.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Moderate swells from distant Hurricane Paulette will keep a High
Risk for rip currents through mid week.

Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms are possible the
remainder of this week, with drier air over the area leading to
slightly lower coverage.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

Pendergrast