Beach Hazards Statement 20, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1004 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020

.DISCUSSION...

...Hazardous Boating Conditions and Rough Surf Conditions To Last
Through The Weekend...

...Potential for Subtropical or Tropical Development Tonight into
Saturday Near the NW Bahamas...

Tonight-Saturday...Coverage of onshore moving bands of showers
has steadily increased this evening across east central Florida.
The NHC continues to monitor an area of disturbed weather over the
FL Straits that will slowly move towards the NW Bahamas tomorrow.
The system has an 80 percent chance of developing in the next 48
hours. Regardless of tropical development, expect numerous showers
to continue through the overnight and through Saturday afternoon,
with isolated storms possible. The heaviest showers/storms will
be along the Treasure Coast and into Okeechobee County, which
could see locally heavy rainfall totals up to 2-3 inches through
Saturday morning.

Had to increase rain chances tonight for the far inland areas as
these bands have made it all the way to I-4 before dissipating.
Winds have generally decreased this evening, but will remain
breezy along the immediate coast and barrier islands. Winds around
15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph possible. Deep moisture in
place will keep temps well above normal overnight, expect lows
around 70 degrees inland, and low/mid 70s along the coast.

Winds become north to northeast and become breezy again over much
of the area tomorrow. Greatest rain chances will remain across
the Treasure Coast, up to 50 percent. Rain chances around 30-40
percent for the Volusia/Brevard County areas, decreasing to 20
percent in Lake County . Cloud cover should keep afternoon highs
on Saturday in the low 80s along the coast. Greater heating inland
as highs reach the mid 80s, with upper 80s possible in Lake County.

&&

.AVIATION...

Numerous showers have developed across the area, with the heaviest
showers along the coast. A few lightning storms will be possible
tonight into Saturday for all terminals. Heavy rain showers will
produce brief periods of IFR conditions, and persistent low
stratus could keep the coastal terminals from KTIX-KSUA socked in
under MVFR conditions through late Saturday morning. Conditions
improving Saturday afternoon with VFR conditions returning.

&&

.MARINE...

Tonight-Saturday...(modified previous discussion) Hazardous
boating conditions continue across all local waters through at
least Saturday afternoon as low pressure lifts NE toward the NW
Bahamas. This disturbance could develop into a tropical or
subtropical system into Saturday. Gale Warning continues across
the waters south of Sebastian Inlet through early morning Saturday
for frequent gusts to gale force. However, much of this will
depend on exact location and strength of low as it nears the NW
Bahamas. As low continues to shift northward, east of the coastal
waters, winds will become more north to northeast and remain around
15-25 knots. Seas will remain up to 7 to 10 feet through tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  82  70  85 /  40  30  20  10
MCO  71  86  70  91 /  40  30  10  10
MLB  73  81  71  85 /  50  40  20  10
VRB  72  83  69  87 /  50  40  20  10
LEE  70  88  69  92 /  20  20  10  10
SFB  69  85  69  90 /  40  30  10  10
ORL  70  85  71  91 /  40  30  10  10
FPR  73  83  68  87 /  60  40  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Saturday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 10 AM EDT Sunday for
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Saturday for Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County
     Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm.

&&

Rodriguez/Kelly

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
900 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-160900-
Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet out to 60 nm-Volusia-Lake-Orange-
Seminole-Brevard-Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
900 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated lightning storms will be possible within the scattered to
numerous showers and squalls pushing westward across the Atlantic.
The best chance for lightning strikes will be over the Atlantic
waters and along the immediate coast.  Wind gusts up to 40 mph will
also be possible.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Several rounds of scattered to numerous showers pushing onshore
will produce locally heavy rainfall. Most of the showers will be
fast moving but there is a risk of persistent heavy rains along
a small portion of the Brevard, Indian River, Saint Lucie and Martin
coasts overnight. This could result in considerable ponding of water
on roadways and other poorly drained surfaces.

.HIGH WIND IMPACT...
Away from showers and squalls, East winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts
up to 30 mph will affect areas along the immediate Space and Treasure
coasts.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Squalls will continue to move westward from the Atlantic and across
portions of the coast tonight. The squalls will produce wind gusts
of 30 to 35 knots over the Atlantic coastal waters and Intracoastal
Waterway mainly from Cape Canaveral southward to Jupiter Inlet.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Hazardous boating conditions will continue. A Gale Warning remains
in effect overnight south of Sebastian Inlet for East winds 20 to 25
knots with gusts to Gale Force. A Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect north of Sebastian Inlet. Seas  6 to 8 feet near shore
and 7 to 10 feet offshore.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A trough of low pressure over the Straits of Florida is forecast to
develop into a subtropical or tropical storm near or over the
northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. From there, this system is forecast
to move north to northeast over the open Atlantic into early next week.

Locally heavy rain and embedded storms will be possible early Saturday
along the Treasure Coast resulting in localized minor flooding,
especially in poor drainage and urbanized areas. Large breakers will
impact all beaches which will produce a High Risk of rip currents again
on Saturday. Rough pounding surf will produce some beach erosion
especially around the times of high tide. Boating conditions will
be very hazardous with Gale conditions possible and seas 9 to 11 feet
offshore.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

Kelly