Tornado Warning 11, NWS Milwaukee, WI

814 
WWUS53 KMKX 250411
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1111 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

WIC021-250430-
/O.CON.KMKX.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-200825T0430Z/
Columbia WI-
1111 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTY...
    
At 1111 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 
was located south of Rio, or 9 miles northwest of Columbus, moving 
southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Fall River around 1120 PM CDT.
  Columbus around 1125 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Otsego, Wyocena and Doylestown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4342 8900 4329 8901 4328 8906 4328 8927
      4344 8940 4354 8928
TIME...MOT...LOC 0411Z 305DEG 34KT 4340 8919 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

MBK

864 
WWUS53 KMKX 250419
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1119 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

WIC021-250428-
/O.CAN.KMKX.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-200825T0430Z/
Columbia WI-
1119 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the tornado warning has weakened, and no 
longer appears capable of producing a tornado. Therefore, the 
warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4342 8900 4329 8901 4328 8906 4328 8927
      4344 8940 4354 8928
TIME...MOT...LOC 0416Z 312DEG 27KT 4336 8913 

$$

MBK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
859 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

.UPDATE...
(Issued 857 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020)

A few thunderstorms may pushed into northwest CWA this evening,
but have remained quite weak. These storms are being triggered
by increasing warm and and moisture advection in the mid-levels. A
couple storms near KMFI showing a bit more teeth and could be on
the nose of the stronger moisture return. These could hang on and
penetrate further into southern WI during the late evening.

Also, still looking for stronger upstream convection to develop
farther west over southern/central MN and move southeast during
the late night, where stronger low level jet is expected to
develop.

MBK

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 356 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020)

Tonight through Tuesday night:

Some elevated showers, with a few storms, may continue to form on
the nose of the westerly low level jet over portions of the area
for the next few hours. Not expecting these to linger for long, as
relatively dry air around 850 mb should limit their development.

Latest CAMs and synoptic models are showing main convection
generally developing more over east central Minnesota into central
Wisconsin by middle evening, then moving southeastward across
northern and eastern parts of the area overnight into early
Tuesday morning.

There is still some uncertainty on when the convection would move
into the northern counties, with the NAM Nest a few hours quicker
and further to the south with the convection than the HRRR. The
HRRR has been trending northward with the overall movement of the
convection, though it still brings in some storms to the northeast
counties after 07Z to 08Z Tuesday.

There is enough low level frontogenesis response and low level jet
forcing to help bring at least scattered convection southeast into
the area mainly around or after midnight, exiting between 11Z and
13Z Tuesday morning.

Forecast soundings still are showing mainly elevated CAPE during
this period, around 1500 to 2000 J/kg with 0 to 6 km bulk shear
of 35 to 40 knots. Thus, mainly elevated strong to severe storms
are possible overnight, with damaging winds and large hail
possible. Locally heavy rainfall may also occur.

Some uncertainty with how widespread the severe risk will be,
given the nocturnal nature of the storms. If a good cold pool can
be established with these storms upstream, then more of a severe
risk would occur. However, the CAMs are still not indicating this
kind of development.

Will continue to message the potential for severe storms mainly
overnight into early Tuesday morning, as well as some of the
uncertainty with timing and areal coverage.

The frontal boundary will linger over the area Tuesday afternoon,
though there will not be much in the way of upward vertical motion
besides the front. Left small chances for storms in the north and
northeast counties for now. There is enough shear and mean layer
CAPE for a strong storm or two, though think most of the area will
remain dry.

More elevated convection may try to clip the northeast parts of
the area Tuesday night. Kept some PoPs in those areas for now for
this possibility.

South of the front on Tuesday, highs around or in the lower 90s
are forecast, with 80s to the north and east of the front. Winds
should shift east Tuesday afternoon near the lake as well. Heat
index values should remain in the middle 90s south of the front,
with some mixing out of dew points.

JJW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 356 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020)

Wednesday through Monday:

The approaching upper ridge will flatten as it shifts across the
area on Wed, but a cap should build in, along with the warm front
lifting north. Hot and humid conditions are expected and will
continue into Thu. Heat index values in the middle 90s are
expected at this time for Wed and Thu.

The srn portion of a broad upper trough and wnwly flow will then
return for Thu nt- Fri nt, along with the passage of its cool
front. Another round or two of convection is expected during this
time.

A ridge of high pressure will then shift ewd across WI for the
weekend, with a pleasant airmass in place. Sly flow and warm,
moist advection will return for Mon, as the high moves ewd and a
trough of low pressure approaches from the Great Plains. Thus,
chances for showers and storms return.

JJW

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 857 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020)

Still expect scattered thunderstorms to affect portions of
southern Wisconsin overnight as a weak front settles south across
the area. Scattered to broken low clouds and possibly some lake
fog may develop late tonight into Tuesday morning as the winds
become more northeast for a time, especially in eastern TAF sites
Improving conditions would then be expected through Tuesday.

MBK

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 356 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020)

An area of thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe,
is expected to move across central and southern portions of the
lake overnight into Tuesday morning. Additional storms will be
possible over mainly the northern half of the lake later Tuesday
into Wednesday.

Low pressure will develop Wednesday over Minnesota, and lift to
north of Lake Huron by Thursday. This will result in gusty
southwest winds over much of the lake on Wednesday, with gusts to
around 20 knots likely. A front will move southward down the lake
Thursday into Friday, bringing additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms. North to northeast winds are also expected behind
the front later in the week.

JJW

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
709 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-260015-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
709 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe,
are forecast to move into the area from the northwest overnight.
Large hail to one inch and damaging winds to 60 MPH will be the
main hazards. The most likely areas to see storms will be
generally northeast of a Wisconsin Dells to Milwaukee line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

Thunderstorms may linger into Tuesday morning before ending.

There are small chances for thunderstorms toward the Sheboygan
area Tuesday afternoon and night.

Heat index values will reach the middle 90s Tuesday over south
central Wisconsin, and over most of the area during the afternoon
on Wednesday and Thursday.

Additional thunderstorm chances are expected for Thursday
afternoon into Friday evening, and again Sunday into early next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed overnight into early Tuesday
morning.

LMZ643>646-260015-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
709 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe,
are forecast to move into the area from the northwest overnight.
Large hail to one inch and damaging winds to 40 knots will be the
main hazards. The most likely areas to see storms will be
generally north of North Point Lighthouse.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

Thunderstorms may linger into Tuesday morning before ending.

There are small chances for thunderstorms north of Port
Washington Tuesday afternoon and night.

South to southwest winds may reach Small Craft Advisory levels on
Wednesday.

Additional thunderstorm chances are expected for Thursday
afternoon into Friday evening, and again Sunday into early next
week.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-260015-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
709 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few thunderstorms may occur in northern parts of the lake this
evening.

Scattered thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe,
are forecast to move into central and southern portions of the
lake from the northwest overnight. Large hail to one inch and
damaging winds to 40 knots will be the main hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

Thunderstorms may linger into Tuesday morning before ending.

There are small chances for thunderstorms over northern and
central portions of the lake Tuesday afternoon and night.

Additional thunderstorm chances are expected for Thursday
afternoon into Friday evening, and again Sunday into early next
week.

www.weather.gov/mkx

Kavinsky

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
945 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

WIZ046-047-250330-
Green Lake-Marquette-

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN GREEN LAKE AND
NORTHEASTERN MARQUETTE COUNTIES...

At 942 PM CDT, a cluster of strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles
west of Plainfield extending west to Babcock, or 15 miles northeast
of Friendship, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Winds of 30 to 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm. If this storm maintains its current intensity, a Severe
Thunderstorm Warning may be needed.

Locations potentially impacted include...

Montello, Westfield, Princeton, Mecan, Neshkoro, Springfield Corners
and Harrisville.

LAT...LON 4388 8900 4368 8926 4397 8960 4398 8960
      4398 8917
TIME...MOT...LOC 0242Z 314DEG 32KT 4417 8967

MBK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1028 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

WIZ046-250415-
Marquette-

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MARQUETTE COUNTY...

At 1027 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast
of Friendship, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Winds of 30 to 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this
storm.  If it maintains its current intensity, a Severe Thunderstorm
Warning may be issued.

Locations impacted include...
Montello, Westfield, Lawrence, Packwaukee, Mecan, Oxford, Endeavor,
Springfield Corners, Glen Oak and Harrisville.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4386 8920 4382 8920 4380 8919 4381 8917
      4377 8917 4376 8925 4364 8925 4364 8940
      4381 8960 4398 8960 4398 8940
TIME...MOT...LOC 0327Z 314DEG 32KT 4404 8970

MBK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1044 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

WIZ046-047-057-058-063-250430-
Dodge-Columbia-Green Lake-Marquette-Dane-

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN GREEN
LAKE...COLUMBIA...NORTHEASTERN DANE...SOUTHEASTERN MARQUETTE AND
WESTERN DODGE COUNTIES...

At 1042 PM CDT, radar indicated a cluster of strong thunderstorms
located along a line extending from 8 miles northwest of Randolph to
near Pardeeville to near Portage. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

Winds of 30 to 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms along with frequent cloud to ground lightning.

Locations impacted include...
Sun Prairie, Beaver Dam, Portage, Columbus, Poynette, Pardeeville,
Randolph, Fall River, Rio, Cambria, Fox Lake, Manchester, Arlington,
Wyocena, Otsego, Friesland, Kingston, Doylestown, Marquette and
Astico.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4353 8878 4324 8889 4319 8926 4358 8962
      4362 8931 4380 8920
TIME...MOT...LOC 0342Z 327DEG 19KT 4367 8917 4354 8922 4352 8952

MBK