River Flood Warning 3, NWS St. Louis, MO

094 
WGUS83 KLSX 100131
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
731 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following river in 
Missouri...
 
  Cuivre River near Troy

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC113-110131-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0003.200111T1132Z-200114T0920Z/
/TRYM7.2.ER.200111T1132Z.200112T0600Z.200113T0320Z.NO/
731 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cuivre River near Troy
* from late Friday night to late Monday night.
* At  7:00 PM Thursday the stage was 5.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by Saturday morning
  and to crest near 27.2 feet by early Sunday morning. The river is 
  forecast to fall below flood stage by Sunday before midnight.
* Impact:  At 25.0 feet...Moderate flooding begins...significant 
  agricultural land is inundated.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     01/10  01/11  01/12  01/13  01/14

Cuivre River
  Troy            21.0    5.81       5.9   21.7   26.6   16.7   11.3


&&


LAT...LON 3901 9100 3903 9095 3895 9089 3893 9090




$$

521 
WGUS83 KLSX 101640
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1040 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

 
  Cuivre River near Troy

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC113-112240-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0003.200111T1221Z-200114T0408Z/
/TRYM7.2.ER.200111T1221Z.200112T0600Z.200112T2208Z.NO/
1040 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cuivre River near Troy
* from Saturday morning to Monday evening.
* At 10:30 AM Friday the stage was 6.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning
  and to crest near 26.5 feet by early Sunday morning. The river is 
  forecast to fall below flood stage by Sunday afternoon.
* Impact:  At 25.0 feet...Moderate flooding begins...significant 
  agricultural land is inundated.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     01/11  01/12  01/13  01/14  01/15

Cuivre River
  Troy            21.0    6.58      20.8   25.5   14.5   10.7   11.6


&&


LAT...LON 3901 9100 3903 9095 3895 9089 3893 9090




$$

627 
WGUS43 KLSX 110209
FLWLSX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service St Louis MO
809 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  Cuivre River near Troy

  North River at Palmyra

  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC113-120209-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0003.200111T1221Z-200114T0408Z/
/TRYM7.2.ER.200111T1221Z.200112T0600Z.200112T2208Z.NO/
809 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Cuivre River near Troy
* from Saturday morning to Monday evening.
* At  8:00 PM Friday the stage was 7.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning
  and crest near 26.5 feet by early Sunday morning. The river is 
  forecast to fall below flood stage by Sunday afternoon.
* Impact:  At 25.0 feet...Moderate flooding begins...significant 
  agricultural land is inundated.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     01/11  01/12  01/13  01/14  01/15

Cuivre River
  Troy            21.0    7.37      20.8   25.5   14.5   10.7   11.6


&&


LAT...LON 3901 9100 3903 9095 3895 9089 3893 9090




$$

MOC183-120209-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0019.200111T1042Z-200113T1025Z/
/DRCM7.2.ER.200111T1042Z.200111T1800Z.200112T0425Z.UU/
809 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* from late tonight to late Sunday night.
* At  7:00 PM Friday the stage was 12.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by early tomorrow 
  and crest near 20.0 feet by tomorrow early afternoon. The river is 
  forecast to fall below flood stage by tomorrow late evening.
* Impact:  At 20.0 feet...Outdoor exercise area at the St. Charles 
  County Animal Control begins flooding near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     01/11  01/12  01/13  01/14  01/15

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   12.69      18.8   15.2    9.5    7.1    5.0


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$

MOC127-120209-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0020.200111T1400Z-200113T0831Z/
/PALM7.1.ER.200111T1400Z.200111T1800Z.200112T0231Z.NO/
809 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The North River at Palmyra
* from Saturday morning to late Sunday night.
* At  7:30 PM Friday the stage was 4.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning
  and crest near 15.0 feet by tomorrow early afternoon. The river is 
  forecast to fall below flood stage by tomorrow evening.
* Impact:  At 14.0 feet...Marion County Rd 341 north of Palmyra 
  inundated. Significant agricultural land flooding...right bank.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     01/11  01/12  01/13  01/14  01/15

North River
  Palmyra         13.0    4.94      12.0   10.6    6.9    5.9    7.3


&&


LAT...LON 3984 9150 3981 9150 3976 9170 3979 9170




$$

012 
WGUS83 KLSX 111530
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
930 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

 
  Cuivre River near Troy

  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters

  North River at Palmyra

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC113-122130-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200114T0225Z/
/TRYM7.2.ER.200111T0550Z.200112T0600Z.200112T2025Z.NO/
930 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cuivre River near Troy
* until Monday evening.
* At  9:00 AM Saturday the stage was 26.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 28.2 feet by after midnight 
  tonight, then fall below flood stage tomorrow early afternoon.
* Impact:  At 28.0 feet...Near this height, MoDoT will consider 
  closing U.S. Highway 61 at the Cuivre River bridge north of Troy in
  both directions.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     01/12  01/13  01/14  01/15  01/16

Cuivre River
  Troy            21.0   25.99      25.8   11.7    9.6   12.4    9.9


&&


LAT...LON 3901 9100 3903 9095 3895 9089 3893 9090




$$

MOC183-122130-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-200113T1044Z/
/DRCM7.2.ER.200111T0721Z.200111T1800Z.200112T0444Z.UU/
930 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* until late Sunday night.
* At  9:00 AM Saturday the stage was 20.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 20.5 feet by this afternoon, 
  then fall below flood stage tonight.
* Impact:  At 20.5 feet...The athletic fields at the Woodlands Sports 
  Park and at the Tony Glavin Soccer Complex begin flooding near this
  height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     01/12  01/13  01/14  01/15  01/16

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   20.13      15.6    9.7    6.7    4.6    3.8


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$

MOC127-122130-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-200113T0430Z/
/PALM7.1.ER.200111T0914Z.200111T1300Z.200111T2230Z.NO/
930 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the North River at Palmyra
* until Sunday evening.
* At  8:30 AM Saturday the stage was 14.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  late this afternoon.
* Impact:  At 14.0 feet...Marion County Rd 341 north of Palmyra 
  inundated. Significant agricultural land flooding...right bank.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     01/12  01/13  01/14  01/15  01/16

North River
  Palmyra         13.0   14.25      10.6    7.1    6.3    7.9    7.1


&&


LAT...LON 3984 9150 3981 9150 3976 9170 3979 9170




$$

672 
WGUS83 KLSX 112329
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
529 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

 
  Cuivre River near Troy

  Cuivre River at Old Monroe
  
  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC113-130529-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200114T0225Z/
/TRYM7.2.ER.200111T0550Z.200112T0600Z.200112T2025Z.NO/
529 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cuivre River near Troy
* until Monday evening.
* At  5:00 PM Saturday the stage was 27.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 28.2 feet after midnight 
  tonight, then fall below flood stage tomorrow early afternoon.
* Impact:  At 28.0 feet...Near this height, MoDoT will consider 
  closing U.S. Highway 61 at the Cuivre River bridge north of Troy in
  both directions.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     01/12  01/13  01/14  01/15  01/16

Cuivre River
  Troy            21.0   27.46      25.8   11.7    9.6   12.4    9.9


&&


LAT...LON 3901 9100 3903 9095 3895 9089 3893 9090




$$

MOC113-130529-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-200115T0200Z/
/OMNM7.1.ER.200111T0916Z.200112T0600Z.200113T1400Z.NO/
529 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cuivre River at Old Monroe
* until Tuesday evening.
* At  4:30 PM Saturday the stage was 26.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue rising to near 26.4 feet after 
  midnight tonight, then fall below flood stage Monday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     01/12  01/13  01/14  01/15  01/16

Cuivre River
  Old Monroe      24.0   25.97      26.0   24.2   19.8   18.3   17.8


&&


LAT...LON 3892 9081 3894 9070 3892 9070 3890 9080




$$

MOC183-130529-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-200113T1512Z/
/DRCM7.2.ER.200111T0721Z.200112T0000Z.200112T0912Z.UU/
529 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* until Monday morning.
* At  5:00 PM Saturday the stage was 21.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue rising to near 22.1 feet by this 
  evening, then fall below flood stage early tomorrow.
* Impact:  At 22.0 feet...Back yards begin flooding behind homes south
  of Mexico Road and along Oak Drive near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     01/12  01/13  01/14  01/15  01/16

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   21.91      16.6    8.5    7.7    6.6    4.5


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$

373 
WGUS83 KLSX 120145
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
745 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Cuivre River near Troy

  Cuivre River at Old Monroe

  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC113-130145-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200114T0112Z/
/TRYM7.2.ER.200111T0550Z.200111T2300Z.200112T1912Z.NO/
745 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cuivre River near Troy
* until Monday evening.
* At  7:30 PM Saturday the stage was 27.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  early tomorrow afternoon.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     01/12  01/13  01/14  01/15  01/16

Cuivre River
  Troy            21.0   27.22      24.1   11.3    9.4   10.5    8.7


&&


LAT...LON 3901 9100 3903 9095 3895 9089 3893 9090




$$

MOC113-130145-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-200115T0100Z/
/OMNM7.1.ER.200111T0916Z.200112T0600Z.200113T1300Z.NO/
745 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cuivre River at Old Monroe
* until Tuesday evening.
* At  6:30 PM Saturday the stage was 26.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 26.5 feet after midnight 
  tonight, then fall below flood stage Monday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     01/12  01/13  01/14  01/15  01/16

Cuivre River
  Old Monroe      24.0   26.21      26.3   24.1   19.8   18.4   17.8


&&


LAT...LON 3892 9081 3894 9070 3892 9070 3890 9080




$$

MOC183-130145-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-200113T2017Z/
/DRCM7.2.ER.200111T0721Z.200112T0100Z.200112T1417Z.UU/
745 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* until Monday afternoon.
* At  7:00 PM Saturday the stage was 22.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is cresting and will fall below flood stage tomorrow
  morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     01/12  01/13  01/14  01/15  01/16

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   22.09      19.3    8.8    6.2    4.8    4.1


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$

556 
WGUS83 KLSX 121515
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
914 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

 
  Cuivre River near Troy

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC113-121544-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200114T0112Z/
/TRYM7.2.ER.200111T0550Z.200111T2300Z.200112T1351Z.NO/
914 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Cuivre River near Troy.
* At  9:00 AM Sunday the stage was 19.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at  7:51 AM Sunday.
* The river will continue falling to 11.7 feet by tomorrow morning.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     01/13  01/14  01/15  01/16  01/17

Cuivre River
  Troy            21.0   19.85      11.7    9.5   10.5    8.8    8.1


&&


LAT...LON 3901 9100 3903 9095 3895 9089 3893 9090




$$

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
536 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

(Through Tonight)

A surface low early this morning is located near the Kansas-Nebraska
border with a cold front draped to the south/southwest through the
south-central Plains. This boundary is forecast to slowly move into
far northwestern sections of Missouri very late this afternoon.
Ahead of this front, a weak shortwave trough is expected to pass
into the lower Ohio Valley coincident with broad low-level moisture
advection. The end result should be isolated showers initially
late this morning to become more widespread late this afternoon
into this evening as the cold front sags a bit closer to the CWA
and the low-level forcing strengthens. Widespread showers are
forecast tonight for areas along/ahead of the front which covers
nearly the whole CWA. Rainfall amounts should not be too high,
generally in the 0.25-0.50" range as the heavier rainfall should
hold off until Friday-Saturday morning with the onset of the
strongest forcing for ascent and deeper influx of Gulf of Mexico
moisture. The main thing rainfall today and tonight's rainfall
will do is help saturate the soils.

The other story today will be the gusty southerly winds. As the
surface pressure gradient tightens and mixing commences this
morning, very strong winds just off the deck (40+ knots) will
attempt to mix down to the surface. Gusts of 30 to at least 40 mph
appear likely centered around the noon hour with the highest gusts
located across portions of south-central Illinois. Gusts may flirt
with advisory criteria, but the duration should be very short
(maybe only an hour or two), so held off on a wind advisory at
this time.

Temperatures will be warmer this afternoon compared to yesterday,
even with the increasing chances of showers and cloud cover, due to
a warmer start to the day and persistent low-level warm air
advection. High temperatures in the 50s are expected areawide.
Very mild lows are on tap for tonight ahead of the front,
generally in the 40s to low 50s. These values would be about 20-30
degrees above normal.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM...  (Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

(Friday - Saturday Night)

No big changes with respect to the heavy rainfall threat Friday
through Saturday morning. Subtle changes were made to the total
rainfall amounts expanding 2-3" area slightly northwestward. As a
result, expanded the flash flood watch a few more counties as well.
The timing has slowed down a few hours as well, with the heavy
rainfall threat lasting a bit longer into the morning hours on
Saturday for southeastern sections of the forecast area. Have
therefore extended the flash flood watch in time until noon for
these locations.

All remains on track however for the potential for very heavy
rainfall rates due to the following factors: 1) slow-moving cold
front, 2) very strong forcing for ascent throughout the troposphere,
3) anomalous moisture content which is 3-4 plus standard deviations
above normal, and 4) isolated-scattered thunderstorms. Bottom
line...a fairly long duration of heavy, efficient rainfall rates are
expected to slowly progress to the east/southeast with the passage
of the surface cold front. Most areas are forecast to receive
widespread amounts of 1.50- 2.50 inches alone between late Friday
afternoon and Saturday morning. This amount of rain falling on
already saturated soils will certainly pose a flash flood threat
across much of the region. In addition to the flash flood threat,
widespread minor to moderate river flooding is expected across the
area over the next several days, with major flooding possible
along the Illinois, Kaskaskia, and Meramec Rivers. Stay tuned to
the latest river forecasts moving forward, if you live near these
waterways.

In addition to the heavy rainfall threat, there is a narrow
temporal and spatial window for strong to severe thunderstorms
late Friday night, mainly across southeastern Missouri. High-
resolution model guidance (CAMs) suggest the northern end of an
evolving QLCS will attempt to move out of eastern
Oklahoma/northern Arkansas late Friday night and may clip our
southeastern Missouri counties. Isolated wind damage would be the
main threat if this scenario were to occur.

The heavy rainfall threat should exit the CWA by midday on Saturday
as the surface cold front finally processes through the CWA.
Attention will then turn to the secondary shortwave trough ejecting
out of the south-central Plains. Deterministic models have come to a
much better agreement with the evolution of this system, mainly
toward a slower, deeper, and further northwest track. Using the
Brown and Younkin (1970) technique, based on the consensus track of
the 850-hPa low, the heaviest axis of snow should be located from
west-central Missouri northeastward through north-central and
northeast Missouri and into southeastern Iowa. Given that these
deep, closed lows tend to trend northwestward, leaned on the NAM/CMC
models which are furthest northwest. Snow amounts across far
northwestern sections of the area are mainly in the 3-5" range, but
there is still a fair amount of uncertainty. Another 50 mile shift
to the northwest would basically take out any significant snowfall
accumulations in the CWA, which is certainly a possibility. Given
this uncertainty and the time until any wintry precipitation would
begin, held off on a winter storm watch. In addition to the
snowfall, it does appear more likely that at least some
accumulations of sleet and freezing rain will occur as the further
northwest track keeps temperatures aloft above freezing. Ice
amounts of a light glaze to slightly above a tenth of an inch are
expected, mainly across central and northeast Missouri as well as
west-central Illinois.

Snowfall associated with the deformation zone should exit
northwestern sections of the CWA Saturday evening, with a cold and
dry night expected thereafter. Look for decreasing cloudiness and
lows in the mid teens to mid twenties. Single digit lows are
possible across northeast Missouri if several of inches of snow
falls due to favorable conditions for radiational cooling late
Saturday night. However, this appears more probable just a bit to
the west/northwest of our area at this time.

(Sunday - Wednesday)

Quasi-zonal to southwesterly flow aloft remains largely in place for
the end of the extended portion of the forecast with several
shortwaves moving just to the north of the area. These disturbances
should bring low chances of mainly rain to the area. The good news
is that it does not appear that any significant rainfall would be in
store due to weak moisture return ahead of each of these systems.

Temperatures should start off near normal on Sunday before
moderating once again into the 50s each day Monday-Tuesday. A cold
front is expected to move through the area sometime Tuesday so
slightly cooler air is likely by Wednesday.

Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 526 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

Low-level wind shear is ongoing early this morning as RAP
soundings suggest a 50-60 knot low-level jet around 2000 feet off
the ground. The low-level wind shear end later on this morning as
southerly surface winds increase and become quite gusty. The
threat for rain showers will increase steadily through the day and
become likely late this afternoon into this evening across the
area. Heavier showers will be capable of dropping visibilities
into the MVFR range. Ceilings will also steadily lower through the
period, with low end MVFR or high end IFR conditions favored
tonight.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

Low-level wind shear should end later on this morning as surface
winds become very gusty. Rain showers are likely most of tonight
and they may reduce visibilities to 3-5SM. Ceilings will steadily
drop today/tonight, with MVFR conditions favored from late this
afternoon through the remainder of the period. IFR ceilings are
possible late tonight into Friday morning, but was not confident
enough at this time to introduce these ceilings. Surface winds out
of the south today may gust to 30-35 knots before subsiding
slightly overnight tonight.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning
     for Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson
     MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint
     Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
     Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

     Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night
     for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Marion MO-
     Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls
     MO.

IL...Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning
     for Bond IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
     Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

     Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night
     for Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
338 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-100945-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
338 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight across portions of
central and southeast Missouri as well as southern Illinois.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Multiple rounds of rainfall are expected with total rainfall amounts
of 2-4 inches forecast across the area. Locally higher amounts are
possible. The period of heaviest rainfall should be from late Friday
afternoon through Saturday morning. A flash flood watch remains in
effect for a large portion of the area for Friday through Saturday
morning. See the watch product for additional details.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast Friday and Friday
night across parts of the area. Some of these storms may be strong to
severe late Friday night, mainly across portions of southeast
Missouri. Isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary threat.

Accumulating snow and ice is likely across central and northeastern
Missouri as well as western Illinois Friday night through Saturday
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

Gosselin