Tornado Warning 29, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
340 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough and associated surface front will move
across tonight ending rain chances and bringing drier and less
humid conditions into early next week. By mid week, a return to
the muggies with small chances of diurnal showers.

Rua

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level trough extends from the upper midwest down into
lower Texas with several vortices along it, including one across
northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas. At the surface, a trough
has moved to eastern portions of the forecast area, with west
winds now at all observation sites except for sits along the
Atchafalaya Basin. Then a cold front is located over northeast
Texas associated with the upper level trough. Mainly light to
moderate shower activity has been initiated with the lift and a
moist air mass.

The upper level trough and cold front will continue to move off
to the east and through the forecast area during the evening to
overnight period, with shower activity ending from west to east.

Drier air will gradually move in behind the front providing for
less humid conditions and sunny skies on Monday.

An upper level low is expected to develop and deepen on the north
end of the current upper level trough over the midwest and move
into the southeast US by the end of Tuesday. This feature will
send a backdoor like surface trough down toward the forecast area.
Meanwhile, surface ridging across the northern Gulf will bring
back southerly flow and an increase in moisture. Therefore, some
isolate convection may form over the northeast section of the
forecast area, mainly central Louisiana on Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons.

Later in the week into next weekend, global models are showing
some differences and having a tough time on consistency. At this
time will stick to the national blend, which has an almost summer
like warm and very muggy conditions, with the potential for
daytime diurnal convection.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
A modest westerly flow will develop this afternoon and evening as
a weak surface trough moves across the coastal waters along with a
few passing showers. Winds will become more northwesterly by early
Monday behind a departing weak cold front. These light to modest
offshore winds will be short lived, as high pressure begins to
ridge across the northern Gulf and provides a return to onshore
winds on Tuesday.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  84  61  88 /  40   0   0  10
LCH  64  86  66  88 /  10   0   0   0
LFT  64  84  65  89 /  50  10   0  10
BPT  64  87  68  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

PUBLIC...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
258 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-182100-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
258 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-182100-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
258 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
304 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 AM     TORNADO          3 SSE MAURICEVILLE      30.18N 93.86W
05/16/2020                   ORANGE             TX   NWS STORM SURVEY

            AN EF-1 TORNADO WITH MAX WIND SPEEDS OF 100 MPH TOUCHED
            DOWN SOUTH OF MAURICEVILLE ALONG HWY 62, AND CONTINUED
            NORTHEAST ACROSS FM1130 AND HWY 12 BEFORE ENDING ALONG
            KAIYUTE ROAD. SEVERAL TREES WERE SNAPPED OR BLOWN DOWN
            ALONG THE PATH.

&&

ERICKSON