Tornado Warning 27, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
316 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020

.DISCUSSION...The region is between a ridge that stretches from
the Atlantic, an area of low pressure over the central plains, and
a cold front that stretches from the Ozarks to New England. This
is providing a southeast flow that continues to pump in warm,
humid conditions. Aloft, an upper disturbance is moving across
Texas which is providing support to a QLCS from deep S TX to the
western Houston suburbs.

Locally showers have been developing as lift and moisture
increases.

Early this morning and into today the QLCS will continue toward
SE TX and LA. Convection across the northern sections of the line
and near the Houston metroplex has been weakening since it is
likely running into a more worked over air mass, however the line
is expected to largely hold together, especially the southern
half. ETA for the line into Jefferson, Harding, and Tyler Counties
is around 5 AM, however scattered showers and a few storms will
already be affecting the area. The severe threat looks fairly low,
however it can not be ruled out that strong gusty winds will
accompany the line and perhaps an outside chance that large hail
or an isolated tornado may occur. Heavy rain can also be
expected... SE TX is under a flash flood watch and that area has
been outlined in a slight risk of excessive rainfall. The most at
risk areas are the locations that received high amounts over the
past few days.

The upper disturbance will slowly move east today through Monday.
Showers and storms will remain in the forecast Sunday with a
gradual decrease as upper low passes the region Monday. A cold
front will also work south across the area Sunday into Monday
with a continued north to northwest flow that will stretch
through mid week.

&&

.MARINE...Gusty winds are expected to accompany a line of storms
today and special marine warnings can be expected. Outside of the
storms, the south flow will be around 15 to 20 knots.

Winds will gradually become offshore late Sunday into Monday and
remain north or northwest into mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  68  80  64 /  70  60  80  40
LCH  78  70  84  67 /  80  40  70  40
LFT  79  71  83  69 /  60  60  80  50
BPT  79  70  85  69 /  90  30  60  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...None.
&&

PUBLIC...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
506 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020

TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-171015-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
506 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Thunderstorms are likely today. Heavy rain, frequent lightning, and
gusty winds are the main threat. Since the ground is already
saturated at many locations in southeast Texas there is an increased
risk of flash flooding.

There is also a minimal threat of large hail and and isolated tornado
this morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The potential for locally heavy rainfall may linger into Sunday as an
upper level disturbance moves across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-171015-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
506 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana and west central Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and torrential down pours will be
possible with the storms today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

An upper level disturbance is expected to bring high rain chances
with widespread thunderstorm activity into Sunday. Locally heavy
rainfall is the main hazard that may lead to flooding of low lying
areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-171015-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
506 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong gusty winds may accompany storms, especially this morning.
Frequent lightning and large hail will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

High chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue into
Sunday. Winds and seas will be locally higher near the storms, along
with occasional cloud to water lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
629 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020

LAZ030-041-TXZ180-201-216-259>262-161230-
Calcasieu LA-Beauregard LA-Orange TX-Hardin TX-Southern Newton TX-
Northern Newton TX-Northern Jasper TX-Southern Jasper TX-Tyler TX-
629 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BEAUREGARD AND
NORTHWESTERN CALCASIEU PARISHES...TYLER...SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON...
NORTHEASTERN HARDIN...ORANGE AND JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 730 AM CDT...

At 629 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles northeast of Votaw to near Orangefield.
Movement was north at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Orange, Lumberton, Vidor, Bridge City, Silsbee, West Orange,
Woodville, Kirbyville, Kountze, Colmesneil, Chester, Deweyville,
Evadale, Rockland, Warren, Town Bluff, Call, Starks, Fred and
Wildwood.

LAT...LON 3102 9465 3106 9456 3105 9449 3103 9447
      3107 9430 3050 9349 2998 9384 2999 9386
      2997 9385 3014 9411 3017 9412 3017 9415
      3049 9462 3049 9454 3099 9466
TIME...MOT...LOC 1129Z 197DEG 28KT 3056 9461 3007 9394

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