Red Flag Warning 9, NWS North Platte, NE

295 
WWUS83 KLBF 210102
RFWLBF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
802 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020


NEZ209-219-210215-
/O.EXP.KLBF.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-200421T0100Z/
Loup Rivers Basin-Loess Plains-
802 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 209 AND 219...

Humidity has increased while winds have started to wane across
north central Nebraska. The Red Flag Warning for fire zones 209
and 219 (Loup Rivers Basin and Loess Plains) has been allowed to
expire.

$$

http://weather.gov/LBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1248 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

The only major concern in the near-term is the chance of some
afternoon thunderstorms late this afternoon and into the evening.
Current model runs are indicating a disturbance moving out of
Wyoming and drifting across north central Nebraska. While the chance
is there for some isolated convection, instability of the
environment remains low. Any thunderstorms that do develop, are
expected to be weaker and will struggle to develop as they encounter
CAPE values under 750 J/kg and LI values above -2. Current thinking
is that if thunderstorms do develop, the best chance will be across
the central Sandhills and into central Nebraska. While severe storms
are not expected, heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and small hail
will still be possible in these thunderstorms.

Quiet conditions are expected to return on Monday as upper level
ridging builds over the west coast. As a result, surface high
pressure will return to the Nebraska region. Dry weather and clear
skies will allow for ample daytime heating. Highs will return into
the mid to upper 60s for the entire region on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

Heading into the extended period, mostly quiet conditions will
continue into early next week. There's a low chance of some isolated
thunderstorms south of I-80 on Tuesday night, but severe concerns
are low at this time. Current model runs show low instability across
portions of southwest Nebraska on Tuesday night helping to limit
widespread convection across the region.

A better chance of widespread rain and thunderstorms arrives at the
end of the week. A developing upper level trough is expected
Thursday night. As this wave moves into the High Plains, a surface
low pressure system will develop across western and central
Nebraska. This system will bring the chance for rain and
thunderstorms from Thursday night through Friday. The risk of severe
storms remains uncertain. Lingering rain showers continue into
Saturday, but current guidance suggests it will be more stratiform
rain showers with thunderstorms unlikely.

Behind this low, colder air will filter into the area. Therefore,
highs on both Friday and Saturday will drop into the low to mid 60s,
compared to the upper 60s to mid 70s seen earlier in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Winds tonight
will generally be light but will increase out of the northwest by
mid morning with gust greater than 25 kts possible. Winds are
expected to diminish in the evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Gomez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
306 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-202015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
306 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020 /206 PM MDT Sun Apr 19 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening across mainly
southwest Nebraska and the Sandhills. While severe storms are not
expected, storms that form could be capable of small hail, gusty
winds to 50 mph and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

Warming temperatures and low afternoon humidity approaching 20
percent on Monday will combine with northwest gusts of 20-35 mph,
strongest winds across north central Nebraska. This will promote
elevated fire weather conditions across parts of western Nebraska
Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte