Wind Advisory 15, NWS Lincoln, IL

Cass County, IL, Champaign County, IL, Christian County, IL, Clark County, IL, Clay County, IL, Coles County, IL, Crawford County, IL, Cumberland County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Douglas County, IL, Edgar County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Jasper County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Logan County, IL, Macon County, IL, Marshall County, IL, Mason County, IL, McLean County, IL, Menard County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Richland County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Scott County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Vermilion County, IL, Woodford County, IL

711 
WWUS73 KILX 190219
NPWILX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
819 PM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

ILZ029>031-037-038-041>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-191100-
/O.CON.KILX.WI.Y.0015.201119T1200Z-201120T0000Z/
Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Tazewell-McLean-Mason-Logan-De Witt-
Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-
Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-
Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
Including the cities of Peoria, Lacon, Eureka, Pekin, 
Bloomington, Normal, Havana, Lincoln, Clinton, Monticello, 
Champaign, Urbana, Danville, Beardstown, Petersburg, Winchester, 
Jacksonville, Springfield, Taylorville, Decatur, Sullivan, 
Tuscola, Charleston, Mattoon, Paris, Shelbyville, Greenup, 
Marshall, Effingham, Newton, Robinson, Flora, Olney, 
and Lawrenceville
819 PM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY...

* TIMING...The winds will come up quickly after sunrise with the 
  strongest winds expected in the late morning into the early 
  afternoon.

* WINDS...Southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph 
  will be possible, particularly east of I-55.

* IMPACTS...Dangerous driving conditions will develop for high
  profile vehicles Thursday Morning. In addition to the strong
  winds, dry conditions will add to potentially dangerous fire
  weather conditions and any burning should be discouraged. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

415 
WWUS73 KILX 190944
NPWILX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
344 AM CST Thu Nov 19 2020

ILZ029>031-037-038-041>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-200000-
/O.CON.KILX.WI.Y.0015.201119T1200Z-201120T0000Z/
Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Tazewell-McLean-Mason-Logan-De Witt-
Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-
Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-
Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
Including the cities of Peoria, Lacon, Eureka, Pekin, 
Bloomington, Normal, Havana, Lincoln, Clinton, Monticello, 
Champaign, Urbana, Danville, Beardstown, Petersburg, Winchester, 
Jacksonville, Springfield, Taylorville, Decatur, Sullivan, 
Tuscola, Charleston, Mattoon, Paris, Shelbyville, Greenup, 
Marshall, Effingham, Newton, Robinson, Flora, Olney, 
and Lawrenceville
344 AM CST Thu Nov 19 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 45 
  to 50 mph expected, mainly along and east of the IL river.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, southeast and west 
  central Illinois.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening.

* TIMING...The winds will come up quickly during this morning, 
  with the strongest winds expected late this morning into mid 
  afternoon.

* WINDS...South to southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of
  45 to 50 mph will be possible at times today, particularly east
  of the IL river.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

07

025 
WWUS73 KILX 200014
NPWILX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
614 PM CST Thu Nov 19 2020


ILZ029>031-037-038-041>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-200115-
/O.EXP.KILX.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-201120T0000Z/
Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Tazewell-McLean-Mason-Logan-De Witt-
Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-
Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-
Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
Including the cities of Peoria, Lacon, Eureka, Pekin, 
Bloomington, Normal, Havana, Lincoln, Clinton, Monticello, 
Champaign, Urbana, Danville, Beardstown, Petersburg, Winchester, 
Jacksonville, Springfield, Taylorville, Decatur, Sullivan, 
Tuscola, Charleston, Mattoon, Paris, Shelbyville, Greenup, 
Marshall, Effingham, Newton, Robinson, Flora, Olney, 
and Lawrenceville
614 PM CST Thu Nov 19 2020

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds will continue to diminish this evening and the advisory has
been allowed to expire.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
230 PM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 159 PM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

High pressure dominating the eastern U.S. will move off to the
east over the next few days enabling strong southwest winds to
bring above normal temperatures into Illinois for the end of the
week. A cold front should move through the area Friday and then
stall over southern Illinois giving portions of the region a rainy
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

Increasing gradient over the Midwest enhance gusty winds through
the short-term. Models consistent in developing LLJ tonight and
much of Thursday with 925mb winds approaching 70 kts by sunrise.
Main question regards how much of that momentum will be able to
work down to the surface. NAM and several NMM members of the SREF
limit mixing tomorrow with a boundary layer inversion remaining in
place through the day. This solution is inconsistent with the dry
ground and strong warm advection. Will favor a warmer low-level
temp profile which should allow mixing from the LLJ. This is
captured best by HRRR which brings surface gusts approaching 50
mph by mid-morning to the central CWA. Will go with wind advisory
from 12z Thu to 00z Fri for all but the the extreme northwest
portion of the forecast area which is northwest of the main LLJ
jet axis

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

Northern stream wave is progged to push a cold front through the
area late Friday. As the front gets hung up as the energy moves
off to the east, overrunning pcpn is expected to develop with a
prolonged period of good isentropic lift. The temporal trend in
forecast solutions for the best lift has been further south with
time as the front's final position is dependent on the strength of
the initial shortwave which the trend has been a bit stronger than
older runs. This would place the axis of the heaviest precipitation
near I-70 though that position could sag a little further south
with rainfall possibly reaching 2 inches locally over the
weekend.

The next shortwave approaches the Midwest late Saturday and
enables a sfc wave to develop along the stationary front in the
ozarks region and pushes the front northward into the forecast
area. As the dynamics moves across the Great Lakes, the sfc low
moves across Illinois and then forces the front back across the
area in its wake as a reinforced cold front, finally ending
precip chances temporarily.

However, the pattern continues to be progressive with the next
shortwave moving into the Midwest on Tuesday and producing another
round of significant precipitation. The ECMWF and CMC are much
stronger with this wave than the deterministic GFS and may
support a potential for strong convection. Will have to monitor
the system closely over the next few runs.

After a warm start to the weekend, 850 temps drop down to near
normal by Monday. There remains uncertainty for Tuesday and
Wednesday as the warm advection in the ECMWF is significant
stronger ahead of the highly dyanamic wave mentioned above with
the GFS much more damped.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

Breezy south winds today will continue through the night with
occasional gusts of 30 kts possible at the central Illinois
terminals. Winds will continue to increase off the surface and
LLWS is likely by middle everning.

Significant uncertainty regarding how efficient mixing will be
tomorrow in working that momentum down to the surface. 12z HRRR
suggests that gusts over 45kts may be possible during mid-morning
into ealy afternoon, mainly between I-55 and I-57. However, NBM
keeps a weak inversion in place which prevents the strongest
momentum from working down. Either way winds will be 50-70 kts 3k-
5kft making very difficult flying conditions.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for ILZ029>031-037-
038-041>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Barker
SHORT TERM...Barker
LONG TERM...Barker
AVIATION...Barker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1139 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061-191200-
Cass-Champaign-Christian-Coles-De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-Fulton-Knox-
Logan-Macon-Marshall-Mason-McLean-Menard-Morgan-Moultrie-Peoria-
Piatt-Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-Shelby-Stark-Tazewell-Vermilion-
Woodford-
1139 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Heightened fire danger is expected this afternoon as brisk
southerly winds 15 to 25 mph and gusts as high as 35 mph continue,
combined with relative humidity of 25 to 30 percent and dry
fuels. Outdoor burning is discouraged.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Heightened fire danger will resume Thursday afternoon, with brisk
southwest winds and dry conditions continuing. Outdoor burning is
discouraged.

Southwest winds will gust 35 to 45 mph Thursday afternoon,
bringing difficult driving conditions for high profile vehicles.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-191200-
Clark-Clay-Crawford-Cumberland-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
1139 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Heightened fire danger is expected Thursday afternoon, with brisk
southwest winds and dry conditions developing. Outdoor burning is
discouraged.

Southwest winds will gust 35 to 45 mph Thursday afternoon,
bringing difficult driving conditions for high profile vehicles.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

Barker