Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1041 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020

Expecting skies to continue to clear over the next few hours
allowing temperatures to warm up a few more degrees. Heat indices
therefore still have a shot to be around 100 and will let the Heat
Advisory continue. Any isolated showers over central Wisconsin
caused my some warm air advection should taper off in the next few
hours.

Tricky forecast for tonight with varying solutions on how the MCS
will evolve. For now focused on following the synoptic forcing
with the mid level wave and frontogenesis. Convection could start
in north central Wisconsin as early as 7pm. There will be plenty
of instability, low level shear, and moisture that brings a
concern for severe storms. As these storms move from northwest
Wisconsin to the southeast severe storms with gusts 60-70 mph will
be a concern. Can't rule out some quarter size hail, but as the
QLCS develops, we'll have to watch for the potential of brief
spin-up tornadoes as shear vectors align with storms. Also expect
some heavy downpours causing locally heavy rainfall as
precipitable water values around around 2-2.25 inches.

Once the front passes early Sunday morning we'll start to dry out
and skies will become sunny. Should be a pleasant end to the
weekend with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and breezy west to
northwest winds gusting 20-30 mph.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020

Sunday Night through Tuesday…

With the system having pushed through we will start to see weak
high pressure build in behind with a period of zonal flow through
the day Monday. This will likely keep the region mostly dry
through the day. Into Tuesday, an upper level shortwave will
likely push into the region likely being associated with a weak
surface low that could bring some showers and weak storms across
the area late Tuesday. There remains some uncertainty but the best
chances for showers and storms will be across northern Wisconsin
so expect decent chances for some precipitation.

Wednesday through Saturday…

Behind the shortwave and surface low passing through overnight Tuesday
a large scale ridge will drape itself over the entire central US
with fairly strong high pressure over the Great Lakes region.
Although this ridge will remained draped over the region for the
period, a few embedded shortwaves will be possible. But the
uncertainty with any embedded shortwaves within the large scale
ridge remains very uncertain at this point. Into the weekend we
may start to see some movement in the ridge as some of the models
suggest but that is a bit too uncertain at this point. Otherwise
expect fairly nice temperatures to start this period with some
potential for a warm up as we head into the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020

The main aviation concern will be the potential for a line of strong
to severe thunderstorms moving from west to east tonight into
early Sunday morning. Expected damaging winds in excess of 60 mph
to be possible with the storms along with hail and heavy rainfall.
MVFR/IFR conditions can be expected with the strongest
thunderstorms and heavies rain. Hi-Res model solutions have most
of the precipitation and thunderstorms exiting the eastern TAF
sites by 12Z.

VFR conditions along with gusty winds to around 20 kts, can be
expected for much of the day Sunday into Sunday evening.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....RAH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......Cooley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
Issued by National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
254 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-192000-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
254 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Heat Advisory remains in effect for portions central, east
central, and northeast Wisconsin until 8PM for heat indices of
95-105.

Severe thunderstorms are possible tonight. While large hail and
isolated tornadoes are possible, damaging winds are likely the
greatest threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

Thunderstorms are possible at times in the upcoming work week,
mainly Tuesday and again around Friday. It is too early to
determine whether these storms will be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-192000-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
254 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Gusty south winds and large waves could make conditions hazardous
for small craft in the Lake Michigan nearshore waters this afternoon
and evening. Thunderstorms could also pose a hazard to mariners.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1251 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 AM     HAIL             RHINELANDER             45.63N 89.41W
07/19/2020  E1.00 INCH       ONEIDA             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BERSCH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
105 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

WIZ010-018-019-190700-
Langlade WI-Oneida WI-Lincoln WI-
105 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LINCOLN...SOUTHEASTERN ONEIDA AND
NORTHWESTERN LANGLADE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

At 104 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms around Gilbert, or 23 miles southwest of Rhinelander,
moving east at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tomahawk, Harrison, Parrish, Gilbert, Tripoli, Dutch Corners, Birch
Trails Girl Scout Camp, New Wood Wildlife Area, Veterans Memorial
County Park and Bradley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
north central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4521 9004 4555 9003 4555 8907 4520 8903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0604Z 267DEG 21KT 4541 8979

Cooley

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
114 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S THREE LAKES         45.78N 89.16W
07/19/2020                   ONEIDA             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 45 SOUTH OF THREE LAKES. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

KURIMSKI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
121 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

WIZ030-035-190700-
Wood WI-Marathon WI-
121 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WOOD AND WESTERN
MARATHON COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

At 121 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Loyal, or 16 miles north of Neillsville, moving east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marshfield, Abbotsford, Spencer, Colby, Stratford, Marathon City,
Edgar, Athens, Rib Falls and Hewitt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4503 9031 4505 8979 4469 8982 4468 8985
      4445 8984 4450 9032
TIME...MOT...LOC 0621Z 271DEG 31KT 4478 9050

Bersch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
128 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1217 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LAC DU FLAMBEAU         45.96N 89.88W
07/19/2020                   VILAS              WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0101 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PHELPS                  46.06N 89.08W
07/19/2020                   VILAS              WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

KURIMSKI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
208 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

WIZ030-035-036-190815-
Wood WI-Marathon WI-Portage WI-
208 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WOOD...NORTHWESTERN PORTAGE AND
SOUTHEASTERN MARATHON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM CDT...

At 207 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles northeast of Marshfield to Cataract.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Stevens Point, Wisconsin Rapids, Marshfield, Mosinee, Bevent,
Pittsville, Babcock, Lake Wazeecha, Nekoosa and Knowlton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4455 9032 4478 9001 4477 8933 4425 8993
      4425 9032
TIME...MOT...LOC 0707Z 269DEG 27KT 4473 9000 4410 9084

Cooley