Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Fort Worth, TX

806 
WGUS74 KFWD 170219
FFSFWD

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
919 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

TXC379-170229-
/O.CAN.KFWD.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-200517T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Rains TX-
919 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR RAINS COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended, but light rain will continue for the next 
few hours.  Minor flooding of low lying areas will be possible. 
Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for portions 
of north central Texas and northeast Texas.

LAT...LON 3298 9593 3293 9566 3276 9564 3282 9592
      3282 9593

$$

Dunn

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
627 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight through Sunday/

Radar imagery and surface observations show the center of the
surface low is located in the vicinity of the Kaufman/Van Zandt/
Henderson county lines this evening. To the east and north of the
center, some weak surface instability is available and has
supported more robust updrafts with rainfall rates climbing to 1.5
to 2"/hr. These pockets of heavier rainfall remain fairly isolated
this evening, but could still support some instances of flash
flooding if training of cells becomes established. This threat
should diminish as we go through the evening and the entire rain
shield shifts off to the northeast. Until then, we'll leave the
current Flash Flood Watch in effect at least for another few
hours.

Persistent lift will support rainfall back as far west as a Bowie
to Weatherford line at least for another couple of hours before
larger scale subsidence begins to work in from the west. We should
see a gradual erosion of the precipitation shield along with a
noticeable eastward shift. We'll keep high PoPs in through about
midnight before tapering rain chances down to zero along the I-35
corridor overnight. Given the slow speed of the entire system,
we'll hang on to some low PoPs east of I-35 through the overnight
hours.

As the rain moves off to the east by early Sunday, skies will
become mostly sunny later in the day with northerly winds
persisting. High temperatures will top out in the lower 80s across
the region.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 214 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020/
/Sunday night onward/

The long-term period looks to be very quiet, with the only real
weather story being steadily increasing temperatures through the
week. By Sunday night, the upper-level low responsible for today's
heavy rain event should be off to our east, allowing rain and
thunderstorms to come to an end.

The upper-level pattern will transition to an omega block pattern
across much of the CONUS, with an amplified ridge over the south-
central CONUS, and troughs over the East and West Coasts. This
pattern will keep the weather in our region dry for the next
several days. While we will be underneath a ridge, the 500 mb
height anomalies will not be particularly large, so temperatures
shouldn't get too hot. Temperatures for the first half of the week
will be near normal for the middle part of May. Highs will be in
the mid to upper 80s, with overnight lows in the mid 60s. Towards
the end of the week, the ridge will amplify a bit more, and center
itself more directly over our region. This will result in
temperatures climbing to the upper 80s to lower 90s, which is
about 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of the year. Still,
nothing overly unusual for North and Central Texas approaching
Memorial Day Weekend.

Beyond the forecast period, both the GFS and ECMWF show the omega
block pattern breaking down, with a deep trough settling in over
the western half of the CONUS. This could bring a return to more
active weather around Memorial Day and beyond.

Godwin

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Areas of light rain and MVFR cigs will prevail for another few
hours before some improvements can be expected. We're already
seeing some breaks in the lower cloud cover in the Metroplex, but
think periodic MVFR cigs will continue into the night. The rain
will gradually pull off to the east tonight with northerly winds
becoming more westerly late tonight. As drier air filters into the
region early Sunday morning, we'll see clouds erode and a return
to northerly flow. VFR will prevail through the day Sunday into
Sunday night.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  83  65  87  65 /  90   0   0   0   0
Waco                62  83  64  87  65 /  30   0   5   0   0
Paris               64  79  60  81  60 / 100  20   0   0   5
Denton              62  83  62  86  63 /  90   0   0   0   0
McKinney            63  81  62  85  63 / 100   0   0   0   0
Dallas              64  84  65  87  65 / 100   0   0   0   0
Terrell             65  81  62  84  63 / 100   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           63  82  63  84  65 /  80  10   5   0   0
Temple              61  85  65  87  65 /  10   0   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       61  83  61  87  63 /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ092>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-161.

&&

91

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
214 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-171130-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
214 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
Storms are ongoing across North and Central Texas. The main threat
will be the heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding east of I-
35.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible on Sunday, mainly in the
morning. Severe weather is not expected with lightning strikes being
the primary hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0147 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE MABANK             32.41N 96.07W
05/16/2020                   VAN ZANDT          TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MINOR DAMAGE TO HOMES AND POWER LINES.
            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN NEAR VZCR 2718 AND 2719.
            POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO PENDING SURVEY. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR AND SO REPORTS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
336 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0148 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE MABANK            32.41N 96.08W
05/16/2020                   KAUFMAN            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ONE HOME ALONG KAUFMAN
            CR 4007 JUST INSIDE KAUFMAN COUNTY LINE.
            SIGNIFICANT TREE/POWER LINE DAMAGE IN THIS
            AREA. POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO BASED ON
            CONTINUED PATH FROM VAN ZANDT COUNTY DAMAGE.
            PENDING SURVEY. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR
            AND SO REPORTS.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
346 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

TXZ120-121-162115-
Kaufman TX-Rockwall TX-
346 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ROCKWALL AND
NORTHWESTERN KAUFMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 346 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Terrell, moving west at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

 Locations impacted include...
Rowlett, Rockwall, Terrell, Forney, Heath, Talty, McLendon-Chisholm,
Post Oak Bend City, Oak Ridge and Lawrence.

LAT...LON 3264 9623 3266 9652 3291 9652 3285 9629
      3284 9629 3284 9627 3282 9619
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 100DEG 19KT 3275 9630

30

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
411 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

TXZ105-123-162145-
Hunt TX-Rains TX-
411 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HUNT AND RAINS COUNTIES
UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 410 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Hawk Cove to near Golden. Movement was
northwest at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

 Locations impacted include...
West Tawakoni, Quinlan, Caddo Mills, Emory, East Tawakoni, Hawk Cove,
Point and Lone Oak.

LAT...LON 3272 9564 3271 9567 3275 9571 3275 9576
      3277 9577 3277 9585 3282 9592 3284 9593
      3284 9629 3304 9630 3300 9586 3298 9586
      3298 9567
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 147DEG 10KT 3288 9606 3275 9553

30

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
414 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

TXZ121-162145-
Kaufman TX-
414 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN KAUFMAN COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM CDT...

At 414 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Talty, or near Forney, moving west at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

 Locations impacted include...
Terrell, Seagoville, Forney, Crandall, Talty, Post Oak Bend City and
Lawrence.

LAT...LON 3264 9630 3262 9652 3281 9652 3282 9630
      3282 9629
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 091DEG 10KT 3274 9639

30

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
535 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

TXZ121-162300-
Kaufman TX-
535 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN KAUFMAN COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM CDT...

At 535 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Wills Point, moving west at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

 Locations impacted include...
Terrell, Kaufman, Post Oak Bend City, Oak Ridge and Lawrence.

LAT...LON 3266 9608 3257 9628 3281 9640 3282 9630
      3283 9629 3284 9621 3284 9608 3275 9607
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 069DEG 12KT 3277 9612

30