Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

404 
WWUS83 KFSD 061632
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1132 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020

IAZ001>003-012>014-020-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-NEZ249-
SDZ255>258-070000-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0005.201006T1700Z-201007T0000Z/
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Lincoln-Murray-
Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-Rock-
Extreme Northeast Nebraska-Lower Brule And Lake Andes Vicinity-
Middle James River Valley-Middle Big Sioux River Valley-
Lower James River To Lower Big Sioux River Valley-
1132 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 
001, 002, 003, 012, 013, 014, 020, 071, 072, 080, 081, 089, 090, 
097, 098, 249, 255, 256, 257, AND 258...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire weather zones 001, 002, 003, 012, 013, 
  014, and 020 in northwest Iowa. Fire weather zones 071, 072, 
  080, 081, 089, 090, 097, and 098 in southwest Minnesota. Fire 
  weather zone 249 in northeast Nebraska. Fire weather zone 255 
  in south central South Dakota. Fire weather zones 256, 257, 
  and 258 in southeast South Dakota. 

* WIND...Westerly winds sustained 15 to 25 mph this afternoon. 
  Winds may gusts between 25 and 35 mph at times, perhaps 
  locally higher in portions of southwest Minnesota.

* HUMIDITY...Minimum relative humidity values between 21 and 28 
  percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

068 
WWUS83 KFSD 062352
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
652 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA, SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA, NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA WILL
EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT...

IAZ001>003-012>014-020-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-NEZ249-
SDZ255>258-070100-
/O.EXP.KFSD.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-201007T0000Z/
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Lincoln-Murray-
Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-Rock-
Extreme Northeast Nebraska-Lower Brule And Lake Andes Vicinity-
Middle James River Valley-Middle Big Sioux River Valley-
Lower James River To Lower Big Sioux River Valley-
652 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LOW
HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 001, 002, 003, 
012, 013, 014, 020, 071, 072, 080, 081, 089, 090, 097, 098, 249, 
255, 256, 257, AND 258...

Gusty west winds have weakened greatly across the region, limiting
the threat of rapidly spreading wildfires from strong winds. 
After sunset, winds will fall to 10 mph or less with humidity 
rapidly rising to 30 to 50 percent.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1050 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020

Gusty northwest winds developing across the area following surface
trough moving through the area.  Surface winds are expected to
decrease with sunset tonight and remain light overnight.

Southwesterly to westerly flow is expected to draw unseasonable mild
air into the region tomorrow, and under mostly clear skies, should
see temperatures warm into the upper 70s and 80s in most locations.
While temperatures are expected to be 15-20 degrees above normal, it
appears we will still be 5-10 degrees below record level. With dew
points remaining in the lower 40s through much of the day, expect
fire danger to increase as mixed layer grows and 20-30 knots of wind
aloft mixes towards the surface.  Will be close to red flag
conditions as relative humidity falls to 22-29 percent. The most
critical RH values look to be along the Missouri River Valley.
Strongest winds look to be across southwest Minnesota, where we
could see winds gusting to near 35 knots.  Lesser speeds are
expected across the remainder of the forecast area, but with the RH
near 25 percent in most locations, will be teetering on the edge of
red flag conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020

Dry and mild conditions continue as ridge across the west spills
into the Plains. 850 hpa temperatures creep towards 2-3 standard
deviations above normal maximizing on Friday. Have left NBM values
as is, since they are close to the 75-80th percentile of guidance
values. Stout southerly flow remains across the plains through the
weekend, resulting in mild and dry conditions continuing through the
the weekend. Elongated trough is expected to develop across the
Northern Plains late in the weekend, potentially creating a
precipitation chance early next week; however, moisture recovery
looks to be difficult in the wake of Delta impacting the Gulf
Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Expect mostly
clear skies and light winds overnight, turning westerly by
Tuesday morning. West winds will increase through the morning with
gusts 15-25 kts developing by afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020

Portions of the forecast area once again outlined in elevated
fire danger by SPC for Tuesday. Unseasonably mild temperatures
will lead to relative humidities falling to near 25 percent
tomorrow afternoon. With diurnal mixing, will see stronger winds
mix towards the surface creating gusty conditions after 15-16Z.
Strongest wind gusts will be across southwest Minnesota, but could
see frequent gusts to 25 mph across the entire forecast area
tomorrow afternoon. With the RH criteria of 20 percent across
south central South Dakota, it may be tough to reach the critical
thresholds, but areas to the northeast may reach criteria for a
few hours. Given the marginal conditions, have opted to hold off
and not highlight further in a fire weather watch, but will
outline threat in headlines on fire weather products.

Lighter winds on Wednesday will briefly lessen fire weather concerns
across the area.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...BP
FIRE WEATHER...BT