River Flood Warning 4, NWS Atlanta, GA

342 
WGUS82 KFFC 030839
FLSFFC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
339 AM EST Fri Jan 3 2020

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...
 
  Big Creek near Cumming affecting Forsyth County

 
GAC117-030909-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200103T1205Z/
/CMGG1.1.ER.200103T0418Z.200103T0545Z.200103T0652Z.UU/
339 AM EST Fri Jan 3 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Big Creek near Cumming.
* This takes effect immediately.
* Until this morning.
* At 245 AM Friday the stage was 5.9 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 6 feet.
* The creek will continue to fall.
* Between 5 and 6 feet, bankfull conditions occur in the low-lying 
  areas of the creek upstream and downstream from the gage at Atlanta 
  Highway or Georgia Highway 9. Portions of the sidewalk on the Big 
  Creek Greenway under the Georgia 400 Highway and McFarland Road 
  remain flooded and a portion of the sidewalk under Majors Road will 
  be covered with around one foot of water. The water level will be 
  around the bottom of the boardwalk along several sections of the 
  Greenway.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3418 8424 3417 8420 3411 8419 3410 8420
      3410 8425 3411 8424             

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
842 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2020

.UPDATE...
Warm front across south central GA has started to push northward
this evening. Models are still showing the BL winds picking up to
at or above 15-20kt overnight, so think the warm front will
continue to move towards or just to the north of the metro area.
The heavier rainfall axis has shifted northward to near the
GA/NC/TN state lines. This should hold for most of the overnight
hours, but do think a band of heavier rainfall is on tap again
during the early part of tomorrow. Temps will also slowly rise
overnight as the warm front pushes northward.

Made some tweaks to the pops and temp grids to reflect current
trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 636 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2020/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 251 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2020/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...
Main concerns are likelihood of heavy rain and strong/svr convection
thru Friday.

Initial round of moderate rain today a little bit lower than
forecast. Based on what has fallen so far and forecast, event total
accumulations (12Z this morning thru 12Z Sat) expected to range from
0.5 to 2.5 inches with the highest amounts still occurring in the far
NW. Will likely see some minor flooding in far NW counties so no
plans to cancel or modify the flood watch.

As mentioned earlier, SPC expanded marginal risk area a bit for both
day 1 and 2 outlooks. While temps have been a little cooler than
forecast here, the source region for low level heat/moisture over
Srn AL and northern Gulf still somewhat warm. Based on expected
MLCAPE and 0-1km shear, ingredients most likely to come together
over westcentral 9A-3P and spread east into rest of middle GA and SE
CWA counties noon-8P. Not seeing a strong signal of severe storms in
hires model reflectivity or updraft helicity. Tornado threat
probably even lower than system last weekend, which produced no
severe weather. Isolated damaging wind main threat, and even that
appears limited.

Showers expected to linger all Fri night as SW flow and moisture
axis slow to leave but heavier rain more likely in the evening
tapering off after 10 P.

SNELSON

LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
No major changes made to the extended forecast. The heavy rain in
the short term will be coming to an end at the beginning of the
long term with drier air pushing in from the west by Saturday
morning. This will force the main flow of rain and the frontal
system east of the region. Wrap- around precip on the backside of
the surface low- pressure will be possible for north Georgia
through Saturday evening/night. As colder near- surface air
rushes into the forecast, a slight chance for some light snow
flurries will be possible Saturday night for portions of north
Georgia, especially in higher elevations, with no accumulations
expected at this time.

The forecast area is then expected to dry out for a couple days,
with high pressure moving into the region Sunday and Monday with
above normal temperatures...as in highs in the 50s to low 60s.

Following Monday, the forecast becomes much less certain with
discrepancies in the models. The next shortwave system is
expected on Tuesday through Wednesday, but differences between
timing of the trough, moisture flux ahead of the trough, and the
deepness of the will lead to quiet different forecasts of surface
conditions on the local level. Therefore, current forecast calls
for at least a slight chance of precip in this timeframe with the
likely timing on late Tuesday. Averaged temperatures again call
for slightly above average temps with highs in the 50s to low 60s.

Thiem/01

AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Band of heavier rainfall has shifted north of ATL and IFR cigs
have improved. This should be short lived, and do expect another
round of heavier rain and IFR cigs overnight. Winds will also try
and shift around to the SW right around 06z. Cigs and vsbys will
continue to be impacted by the widespread rainfall through most of
tomorrow...tapering off only after 00Z SAT.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          48  46  65  53 /  80  60  90  80
Atlanta         48  48  65  52 /  90  70  90  80
Blairsville     48  45  60  46 /  90 100  80  80
Cartersville    49  47  62  49 /  90  90  80  80
Columbus        57  57  71  54 /  80  70  90  80
Gainesville     46  43  62  51 /  90  80  90  80
Macon           56  56  73  55 /  40  40  90  80
Rome            49  48  62  49 /  90  90  80  80
Peachtree City  51  51  66  51 /  80  60  80  80
Vidalia         64  57  78  60 /  10  10  50  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday evening for the following zones:
Catoosa...Chattooga...Dade...Floyd...Gordon...Murray...Walker...
Whitfield.

&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1002 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-031015-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1002 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

A Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday evening for far
northwest Georgia where moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall
will produce up to 2.5 inches of rain.  Persistent, heavy rainfall
could lead to flooding of creeks, streams and rivers, as well as
roadways and low-lying areas.

Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of
westcentral Georgia overnight. No severe weather is expected at
this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Heavy rain will taper off Friday and Friday night from west to east,
but runoff from earlier rain could produce rises and continued
flooding, mainly in northwest Georgia.

Isolated strong to possibly severe storms will be possible over
west central and middle Georgia Friday into the early evening and
could produce damaging winds.

There is also a slight chance for snow flurries over far north
Georgia on the backside of the storm system late Saturday and
Saturday night, especially in higher elevations. No accumulation or
impacts are expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.