Tornado Warning 10, NWS Bismarck, ND

665 
WWUS53 KBIS 010102
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
802 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NDC093-010111-
/O.CAN.KBIS.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-200701T0115Z/
Stutsman ND-
802 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHERN STUTSMAN COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
southeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4734 9852 4733 9870 4755 9878 4755 9850
      4744 9850
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 175DEG 22KT 4743 9863 

$$

NDC031-010115-
/O.CON.KBIS.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-200701T0115Z/
Foster ND-
802 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
FOSTER COUNTY...
    
At 801 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Glenfield, or 23 miles east of Carrington, moving
north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
eastern Foster County, including the following locations... Juanita.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4734 9852 4733 9870 4755 9878 4755 9850
      4744 9850
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 175DEG 22KT 4743 9863 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

SCHILD

488 
WWUS53 KBIS 010111
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
811 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NDC031-010121-
/O.EXP.KBIS.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-200701T0115Z/
Foster ND-
811 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EASTERN FOSTER COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 815
PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
southeastern North Dakota.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Bismarck.

LAT...LON 4734 9852 4733 9870 4755 9878 4755 9850
      4744 9850
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 179DEG 32KT 4749 9863 

$$

SCHILD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
735 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 734 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Sent a quick update to trim the south and west parts of the Flash
Flood Watch. The front continues to push east with the main threat
for heavy rain now primarily north and east of the Missouri
River.

UPDATE Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Updated the forecast to add the severe thunderstorm watch and
make minor adjustments to the grids. The severe threat in far
western North Dakota is also small enough that we pulled them out
of the severe wording in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Did not
make any changes to the Flash Flood Watch at this point. Will take
a closer look at that again in another hour or two with the threat
diminishing in the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Severe thunderstorm potential through this evening along with heavy
rainfall is the focus for the short term.

A negatively-tilted mid and upper-level trough will eject from
the Rockies into the northern Plains by this evening, setting the
stage for an active thunderstorm event as a frontal zone also
sharpens and shifts eastward. The frontal zone draped across west
central ND continues to yield regenerative clusters of
thunderstorms. This activity will pose a marginal severe-storm
risk through the early afternoon.

This convection will likely limit diurnal heating across western
and portions of central ND which could limit the higher end of the
severe threat this afternoon/evening, however, more robust ascent
is expected as the negatively-tilted trough swings through and
this should be enough to spark more organized convection late this
afternoon or evening. 12 UTC guidance suite and latest CAMs
favor strong to extreme instability along and east of the front
with MLCAPE of 3000 to 5000 J/kg, along with steep midlevel lapse
rates and effective shear magnitudes of 25 to 35 kt, but more
impressively strong mid/low-level helicity and 0-1km shear.
Deep-layer wind fields will largely be oriented parallel to the
north-south frontal zone, favoring a linear and messy mode to
convection with primarily multicells and transient supercells with
a risk of damaging winds and large hail. With 0-1-km SRH around
150 m2/s2 and 0-1 km shear around 30 knots there is a tornado
risk, although perhaps not as high as one would expect given the
above parameters unless surface-based storms can form. The CAMs
have been consistent in firing storms along highway 83 late this
afternoon then moving east into the James River Valley this
evening.

Finally, given the rich low level moisture, large CAPE profiles,
and relatively modest deep-layer wind fields, the setting favors
very heavy rainfall. Despite dry soils, rainfall rates could be
enough for localized flash flooding, so the Flash Flood Watch
continues for portions of central North Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

A classic summertime pattern will be in place during the long term
with warm, humid conditions and chances for thunderstorms nearly
every day. The large-scale pattern will feature broad west-
southwest flow aloft across the Northern Plains with mid/upper-
level waves moving through the flow. Rich low-level moisture will
remain in place. Moreover, the magnitude of flow aloft and steep
low and mid-level lapse rates suggests a climatological severe
storm risk will exist. While confidence in the day to day details
through the period is moderate at best, it appears that overall,
Wednesday has the highest odds of being a dry period, with
increasing chances of thunderstorms on at least a scattered basis
Thursday, Friday, and Independence Day. Thermal fields and NBM
guidance support highs mainly 85 to 95 F through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Thunderstorms will be the main concern early in the TAF period,
especially for northern and eastern terminal locations. Once the
thunderstorms exit, conditions should improve with VFR returning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM CDT this evening for NDZ002>004-
010>012-021-022-035.

&&

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
729 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NDZ002>004-010>012-021-022-035-020030-
Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-McLean-Sheridan-
Burleigh-
729 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, and south central North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible through the evening. The main
risks will be large hail up to ping pong ball size and damaging
winds up to 70 mph. An isolated tornado is also possible.

A Flash Flood Watch is also in effect through this evening for
parts of central North Dakota. See weather.gov/bis for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorms are possible Thursday evening. Some storms could be
severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed this evening.

NDZ005-013-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051-020030-
Rolette-Pierce-Wells-Foster-Kidder-Stutsman-Logan-La Moure-
McIntosh-Dickey-
729 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening. The main
risks will be large hail up to ping pong ball size and damaging
winds up to 70 mph. An isolated tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorms are possible Thursday evening. Some storms could be
severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed this evening.

NDZ001-009-017>020-031>034-040>046-020030-
Divide-Williams-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-Golden Valley-
Billings-Stark-Morton-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-
Emmons-
729 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020 /629 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible this evening, but severe weather is not
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorms are possible Thursday evening. Some storms could be
severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters activation is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
713 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SW HARVEY             47.73N 100.02W
06/30/2020  M2.50 INCH       WELLS              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN TOTAL SO FAR TODAY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
715 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     HAIL             5 S TUTTLE              47.07N 99.99W
06/30/2020  E0.70 INCH       KIDDER             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
735 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NDZ036-037-047-048-010115-
La Moure ND-Kidder ND-Logan ND-Stutsman ND-
735 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LAMOURE...EASTERN
KIDDER...NORTHEASTERN LOGAN AND WESTERN STUTSMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 815
PM CDT...

At 732 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 9 miles north of Robinson to 6 miles south of
Streeter. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms. Quick spin-up tornadoes are also possible along the leading
edge of the line.

Locations impacted include...
Medina, Gackle, Tappen, Streeter, Cleveland, Pettibone, Woodworth,
Robinson, Windsor, Crystal Springs, Lake Williams, Chase Lake and
Alfred.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek shelter
inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central and southeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4733 9987 4733 9918 4655 9876 4646 9943
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 245DEG 18KT 4728 9975 4656 9938

MJONES

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
735 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NDZ012-013-022-023-010115-
McHenry ND-Wells ND-Sheridan ND-Pierce ND-
735 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WELLS...NORTHEASTERN SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWESTERN PIERCE AND SOUTHEASTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM
CDT...

At 733 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Drake to to near Hurdsfield. Movement was
northeast at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts to 55 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Harvey, Fessenden, Drake, Anamoose, Hurdsfield, Martin, Balta,
Bowdon, Sykeston, Heimdal, Bremen, Manfred, Chaseley, Hamberg,
Sheyenne Lake, Silva, Selz, and Wellsburg.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
lead to flooding, especially for areas that have already experienced
heavy rainfall. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek shelter
inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Bismarck.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central and north central North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4827 9985 4802 9985 4802 9981 4785 9981
      4784 9929 4767 9930 4767 9927 4733 9927
      4733 10003 4798 10040 4838 9965
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 238DEG 26KT 4796 10028 4775 10011 4743 9987

SCHILD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
741 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NDZ004-010115-
Bottineau ND-
741 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BOTTINEAU COUNTY
UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 741 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles south of
Souris, or 8 miles west of Bottineau, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts to 55 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bottineau, Souris, Lake Metigoshe State Park, Landa, Carbury and
Roth.

LAT...LON 4873 10050 4882 10089 4900 10094 4900 10023
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 205DEG 31KT 4883 10064

HAMILTON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
743 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NDZ025-037-010130-
Stutsman ND-Foster ND-
743 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FOSTER AND NORTHEASTERN STUTSMAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 742 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered 6 miles southwest
of Glenfield, or 20 miles east of Carrington, moving north at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Kensal, Glenfield, Bordulac, Grace City, Pingree, Mchenry, Courtenay,
Edmunds and Juanita.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek shelter
inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Bismarck.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
southeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4716 9895 4759 9907 4759 9850 4733 9850
      4733 9847 4716 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 182DEG 22KT 4740 9868

SCHILD