River Flood Warning 2, NWS Gaylord, MI

462 
WGUS83 KAPX 181734
FLSAPX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
134 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.Heavy rainfall over the past 24 hours over Arenac County...in the
range of 2 to 3 inches...has caused a rapid rise on the Rifle River
near Sterling.  An additional 0.50 to 1.00 inches of rainfall
through daybreak Tuesday will continue to cause the Rifle River
to rise.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation this evening or as new information
becomes available.

&&

MIC011-190533-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0002.200518T1725Z-200521T1600Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.200518T1407Z.200520T0600Z.200521T1000Z.NO/
134 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Thursday afternoon.
* At 12:30 PM Monday the stage was 8.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 11.5 feet by 
  after midnight tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...High water begins to impact campground at 
  White's Canoe Livery at Melita Road bridge.
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Tue     Wed     Thu

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    8.5  Mon 12 PM       5.0     9.3     6.6

&&

LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             

$$

JPB

510 
WGUS43 KAPX 182043
FLWAPX


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
443 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...Forecast Flooding Changed from Minor to Major Severity for the 
following rivers in Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.Stage on the Rifle River near Sterling in Arenac County continues to
climb very quickly due to continued heavy rainfall.  The river 
stage has risen nearly 9 feet since midnight Monday...after 
rainfall amounts of 2.50 to 3.50 inches over the past 24 hours.  Up
to an additional 1 inch of rain is expected to fall through daybreak
Tuesday.  This will bring the Rifle River to near its record crest of
13.74 feet set back on March 28 1950.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Persons in the warned areas should take steps to protect property 
from rising water levels.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation this evening or as new information
becomes available.

&&

MIC011-190843-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200521T1630Z/
/STRM4.3.ER.200518T1407Z.200519T0600Z.200521T1030Z.NR/
443 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Major severity...

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Rifle River near Sterling.
* At 4:30 PM Monday the stage was 11.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 13.5 feet  
  after midnight Tuesday. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Flooding of homes along Pinnacle Drive and 
  Miller Road.
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Tue     Wed     Thu

Rifle River
  Sterling           6   11.6  Mon 04 PM      13.5     9.1     6.3


&&

LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             

$$

JPB

186 
WGUS83 KAPX 190156
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
956 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Tobacco River at Beaverton AFFECTING Gladwin County

.The latest river forecast indicates that the Tobacco River at
Beaverton will crest at just above action stage at 10.3 feet on
Tuesday. Flood stage for the Tobacco River is 12 Feet. Therefore...
the Flood Warning for the Tobacco River has been cancelled.


...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County
  Manistee River near Sherman AFFECTING Wexford County

.Moderate to heavy rainfall over the past 24 to 36 hours continues
to result in flooding along the Rifle and Manistee Rivers.

The Rifle River near Sterling is expected to crest overnight at or
near record levels.

The Manistee River near Sherman is expected to continue to rise
overnight to above flood stage Tuesday morning.  The river is expected
to crest Tuesday evening.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation this evening or as new information becomes available.

&&


MIC011-191355-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200521T1500Z/
/STRM4.3.ER.200518T1407Z.200519T0600Z.200521T0900Z.NR/
956 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Thursday morning.
* At  9:30 PM Monday the stage was 13.2 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 13.7 feet by 
  after midnight tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Flooding of homes along Pinnacle Drive and 
  Miller Road.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Tue     Wed     Thu

Rifle River
  Sterling           6   13.2  Mon 09 PM       8.9     6.2     5.1


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

MIC165-191355-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.200519T0730Z-200521T0000Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.200519T0730Z.200519T1800Z.200520T1800Z.NR/
956 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Manistee River near Sherman.
* from late tonight to Wednesday evening.
* At  9:30 PM Monday the stage was 14.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early tomorrow and continue to
  rise to near 15.5 feet by tomorrow early afternoon.the river will 
  fall below flood stage by Wednesday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Flooding of property and homes adjacent to 
  right bank of river along Ojibway Drive, Ottawa Drive, and Chippewa
  Drive 1 mile north of Sherman.  Flooding of N 11 Road between W 14 
  Road and W 16 Road 1 mile northwest of Mesick.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Tue     Wed     Thu

Manistee River
  Sherman           15   14.7  Mon 09 PM      15.4    14.7    14.0


&&


LAT...LON 4451 8552 4436 8552 4434 8569 4438 8580
      4447 8580                       



$$

MIC051-190226-
/O.CAN.KAPX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200520T2000Z/
/BVTM4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
956 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Tobacco River at Beaverton.
* At  9:00 PM Monday the stage was 10.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 10.3 feet 
  after midnight tomorrow.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Flooding occurs along left bank. Flooding of
  modular home along Yager Court (left bank of river).

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Tue     Wed     Thu

Tobacco River
  Beaverton         12   10.2  Mon 09 PM       9.4     7.3     6.2


&&


LAT...LON 4388 8450 4391 8446 4384 8434 4382 8441




$$

794 
WGUS43 KAPX 191300
FLWAPX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
900 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

...Forecast Flooding Changed from Major to Record Severity for the 
following rivers in Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.Heavy rainfall has pushed the Rifle River near Sterling above its
record stage.  The previous record was 13.74 feet set on March 28
1950.  Current stage is 15.2 feet...with the river expected to crest
this afternoon and begin to fall.  The river is expected to remain
above flood stage through Thursday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Persons in the warned areas should take steps to protect property 
from rising water levels.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation as new information becomes available.

&&

MIC011-200100-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200522T0900Z/
/STRM4.3.ER.200518T1407Z.200519T1800Z.200522T0300Z.NR/
900 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

...Observed flooding increased from Major to Record severity...
...Forecast flooding increased from Major to Record severity...

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Rifle River near Sterling.

* At  8:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 15.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Record flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 15.3 feet by this
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage Thursday before 
  midnight.
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Wed     Thu     Fri

Rifle River
  Sterling           6   15.2  Tue 08 AM      13.5     7.8     5.9

&&

LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             

$$

JPB

440 
WGUS83 KAPX 200043
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
843 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County
  Tobacco River at Beaverton AFFECTING Gladwin County
  Manistee River near Sherman AFFECTING Wexford County
  
.Heavy rainfall has pushed the Rifle River near Sterling above its
record stage. The previous record was 13.74 feet set on March 28
1950. Current stage is 15.6 feet. The Rifle River is expected to
fall to below flood stage by Thursday evening.

Heavy rainfall has pushed the Tobacco River at Beaverton above its
record crest of 12.95 feet set back on July 9 1957. The river stage is currently at 13.6 feet. The Tobacco River is expected to fall to
below flood stage by late Wednesday.

The Manistee River near Sherman in Wexford County is forecast to
crest this evening...before falling below flood stage by late
Wednesday.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation as new information becomes available.


&&

MIC011-201242-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200522T0900Z/
/STRM4.3.ER.200518T1407Z.200519T2015Z.200522T0300Z.NR/
843 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until late Thursday night.
* At  5:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 15.6 feet.
* Record flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Thursday before midnight.


 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Wed     Thu     Fri

Rifle River
  Sterling           6   15.6  Tue 05 PM       7.8     5.9     5.3


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

MIC051-201138-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-200520T1138Z/
/BVTM4.3.ER.000000T0000Z.200519T1630Z.200520T0538Z.NR/
843 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tobacco River at Beaverton.
* until Wednesday morning.
* At  8:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 13.6 feet.
* Record flooding is occurring and Nonflood flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  after midnight tomorrow.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Flooding occurs along left bank. Flooding of
  modular home along Yager Court (left bank of river).

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Wed     Thu     Fri

Tobacco River
  Beaverton         12   13.6  Tue 08 PM       8.7     7.1     6.3


&&


LAT...LON 4388 8450 4391 8446 4384 8434 4382 8441




$$

MIC165-201242-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200521T0900Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.200519T0607Z.200519T2330Z.200521T0300Z.NR/
843 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Manistee River near Sherman.
* until late Wednesday night.
* At  7:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 15.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow late evening.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Flooding of property and homes adjacent to 
  right bank of river along Ojibway Drive, Ottawa Drive, and Chippewa
  Drive 1 mile north of Sherman.  Flooding of N 11 Road between W 14 
  Road and W 16 Road 1 mile northwest of Mesick.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Wed     Thu     Fri

Manistee River
  Sherman           15   15.6  Tue 07 PM      14.9    14.1    13.4


&&


LAT...LON 4451 8552 4436 8552 4434 8569 4438 8580
      4447 8580                       



$$

052 
WGUS83 KAPX 200957
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
557 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

.Heavy rainfall has pushed the Rifle River near Sterling above its
record stage. The previous record was 13.74 feet set on March 28
1950. Current stage is 15.4 feet. The Rifle River is expected to
fall to below flood stage by late Friday.

Heavy rainfall has pushed the Tobacco River at Beaverton above its
record crest of 12.95 feet set back on July 9 1957. The river stage
is currently at 12.4 feet. The Tobacco River is expected to fall to
below flood stage by late today.

The Manistee River near Sherman in Wexford County is slowly falling, 
and is expected to fall below flood stage Thursday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation as new information becomes available.

&&

MIC011-202157-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200522T0900Z/
/STRM4.3.ER.200518T1407Z.200519T2015Z.200522T0300Z.NR/
557 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until late Thursday night.
* At  5:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 15.4 feet.
* Record flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Friday.


 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Thu     Fri     Sat

Rifle River
  Sterling           6   15.4  Wed 05 AM       7.8     5.9     5.3


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

MIC165-202157-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200521T0900Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.200519T0607Z.200519T2330Z.200521T0300Z.NR/
557 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Manistee River near Sherman.
* until late tonight.
* At  5:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 15.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 15.4 by this 
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage early Thursday.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Flooding begins around the Wilderness Canoe 
  livery along left bank of river just downstream of M-37 bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Thu     Fri     Sat

Manistee River
  Sherman           15   15.4  Wed 05 AM      14.9    14.1    13.4


&&


LAT...LON 4451 8552 4436 8552 4434 8569 4438 8580
      4447 8580                       



$$

MIC051-201543-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-200520T1543Z/
/BVTM4.3.ER.000000T0000Z.200519T1630Z.200520T0943Z.NR/
557 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tobacco River at Beaverton.
* until this morning.
* At  5:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 12.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage
later today.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Flooding occurs along left bank. Flooding of
  modular home along Yager Court (left bank of river).

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Thu     Fri     Sat

Tobacco River
  Beaverton         12   12.4  Wed 05 AM       8.7     7.1     6.3


&&


LAT...LON 4388 8450 4391 8446 4384 8434 4382 8441

$$

Bak

788 
WGUS83 KAPX 201451
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1051 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Tobacco River at Beaverton AFFECTING Gladwin County

.River level at Beaverton has fallen back below flood stage and
expected to remain there through the rest of this week. Therefore,
the river flood warning has been cancelled. 

An areal flood warning remains in effect for Glawin county through
7 PM this evening.


...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County
  Manistee River near Sherman AFFECTING Wexford County

.River level on the Rifle River near Sterling remains above 15 feet 
this morning, above the previous record stage of 13.74 feet set on 
March 28 1950. The river level is expected to fall over the next few 
days, below flood stage by early Friday afternoon. 

The Manistee River near Sherman in Wexford County is slowly falling, 
and is expected to fall below flood stage this evening.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this flooding situation as new information becomes available.


&&

MIC011-210251-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200523T0000Z/
/STRM4.3.ER.200518T1407Z.200519T2015Z.200522T1800Z.NR/
1051 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Friday evening.
* At  9:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 15.3 feet.
* Record flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Friday early afternoon.


 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Thu     Fri     Sat

Rifle River
  Sterling           6   15.3  Wed 09 AM      11.8     6.9     5.6


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

MIC165-210251-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200521T0600Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.200519T0607Z.200519T2330Z.200521T0000Z.NR/
1051 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Manistee River near Sherman.
* until late tonight.
* At  9:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 15.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  this evening.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Flooding begins around the Wilderness Canoe 
  livery along left bank of river just downstream of M-37 bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Thu     Fri     Sat

Manistee River
  Sherman           15   15.3  Wed 09 AM      14.8    14.0    13.4


&&


LAT...LON 4451 8552 4436 8552 4434 8569 4438 8580
      4447 8580                       



$$

MIC051-201521-
/O.CAN.KAPX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-200520T1543Z/
/BVTM4.3.ER.000000T0000Z.200519T1630Z.200520T1015Z.NR/
1051 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Tobacco River at Beaverton.
* At 10:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 10.6 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at  6:15 AM Wednesday.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 8.2 feet by tomorrow 
  morning.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Thu     Fri     Sat

Tobacco River
  Beaverton         12   10.6  Wed 10 AM       8.7     7.1     6.3


&&


LAT...LON 4388 8450 4391 8446 4384 8434 4382 8441




$$

582 
WGUS83 KAPX 202316
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
716 PM EDT Wed May 20 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County
  Manistee River near Sherman AFFECTING Wexford County

.River level on the Rifle River near Sterling has dropped to 11.7 feet this evening. The river level is expected to continue to fall over the next few 
days, dropping below flood stage on Saturday. 

The Manistee River near Sherman in Wexford County has dropped to 15.5 feet...just above flood state,  The river level is expected to fall below flood stage tonight.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this flooding situation as new information becomes available.

&&


MIC011-211116-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200523T1200Z/
/STRM4.3.ER.200518T1407Z.200519T2015Z.200523T0600Z.NR/
716 PM EDT Wed May 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Saturday morning.
* At  6:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 11.7 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 14.5 by this 
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage early Saturday 
  morning.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.


 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Thu     Fri     Sat

Rifle River
  Sterling           6   11.7  Wed 06 PM      13.0     7.7     6.0


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

MIC165-210600-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200521T0600Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.200519T0607Z.200519T2330Z.200521T0000Z.NR/
716 PM EDT Wed May 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Manistee River near Sherman.
* until late tonight.
* At  6:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 15.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  this evening.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Flooding begins around the Wilderness Canoe 
  livery along left bank of river just downstream of M-37 bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Thu     Fri     Sat

Manistee River
  Sherman           15   15.1  Wed 06 PM      14.8    14.0    13.4


&&


LAT...LON 4451 8552 4436 8552 4434 8569 4438 8580
      4447 8580                       



$$

758 
WGUS83 KAPX 211332
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
932 AM EDT Thu May 21 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.River level on the Rifle River near Sterling has dropped to 8.8 feet this morning.
The river level will continue to fall, dropping below flood stage on Saturday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation...Insert time here!!...as new 
information becomes available.

&&

MIC011-220131-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200523T1500Z/
/STRM4.3.ER.200518T1407Z.200519T2015Z.200523T0900Z.NR/
932 AM EDT Thu May 21 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Saturday morning.
* At  8:30 AM Thursday the stage was 8.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...High water begins to impact campground at 
  White's Canoe Livery at Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Fri     Sat     Sun

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    8.8  Thu 08 AM       7.2     6.1     5.3


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             

$$

Bak

909 
WGUS83 KAPX 211356 CCA
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
932 AM EDT Thu May 21 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.River level on the Rifle River near Sterling has dropped to 8.8 
feet this morning. The river level will continue to fall, dropping 
below flood stage on Saturday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this flooding situation as new information becomes available.

&&

MIC011-220131-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200523T1500Z/
/STRM4.3.ER.200518T1407Z.200519T2015Z.200523T0900Z.NR/
932 AM EDT Thu May 21 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Saturday morning.
* At  8:30 AM Thursday the stage was 8.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...High water begins to impact campground at 
  White's Canoe Livery at Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Fri     Sat     Sun

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    8.8  Thu 08 AM       7.2     6.1     5.3


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             

$$

Bak

005 
WGUS83 KAPX 220032
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
832 PM EDT Thu May 21 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.River level on the Rifle River near Sterling has dropped to 7.4 
feet this evening. The river level will continue to fall, dropping 
below flood stage on Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this flooding situation as new information becomes available.

&&

MIC011-221231-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200523T1500Z/
/STRM4.3.ER.200518T1407Z.200519T2015Z.200523T0900Z.NR/
832 PM EDT Thu May 21 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Saturday morning.
* At  7:30 PM Thursday the stage was 7.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 6.0 feet...High water begins to impact canoe livery at 
  River View Campground.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Fri     Sat     Sun

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    7.4  Thu 07 PM       6.1     5.3     4.9


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

157 
WGUS83 KAPX 221341
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
941 AM EDT Fri May 22 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.River level on the Rifle River near Sterling has dropped to 6.1 
feet this morning. The river level will continue to fall, dropping 
below flood stage this afternoon or evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this flooding situation as new information becomes available.


&&

MIC011-230000-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200523T0000Z/
/STRM4.3.ER.200518T1407Z.200519T2015Z.200522T1800Z.NR/
941 AM EDT Fri May 22 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until this evening.
* At  9:30 AM Friday the stage was 6.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  this afternoon.
* Impact...At 6.0 feet...High water begins to impact canoe livery at 
  River View Campground.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Sat     Sun     Mon

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    6.1  Fri 09 AM       5.7     5.3     4.9


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

128 
WGUS83 KAPX 221831
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
231 PM EDT Fri May 22 2020

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.River level on the Rifle River near Sterling has dropped to 5.9 feet
this afternoon, just below flood stage. The river level will continue
to fall over the next few days. Therefore, the river flood warning 
has been cancelled.

An areal flood warning remains in effect for Arenac county 
until 7 PM this evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information.

&&

MIC011-221901-
/O.CAN.KAPX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200523T0000Z/
/STRM4.3.ER.200518T1407Z.200519T2015Z.200522T1530Z.NR/
231 PM EDT Fri May 22 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* At  1:30 PM Friday the stage was 5.9 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at 11:30 AM Friday.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 5.6 feet by tomorrow 
  morning.
* Impact...At 6.0 feet...High water begins to impact canoe livery at 
  River View Campground.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Sat     Sun     Mon

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    5.9  Fri 01 PM       5.7     5.3     4.9


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
917 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020

Nearly vertically stacked low pressure center is holding along
the Iowa/Illinois border late this evening. Deep gulf moisture
continues to stream northward ahead of this system...producing a
large area of widespread rain across most of Michigan and portions
of Wisconsin. Radar precip estimates combined with local obs
suggest most locations across Northern Lower Michigan have
received around a half an inch of rain so far this afternoon and
evening...a little less near the tip of the Mitt and possibly a
bit more along our southern tier of counties. Certainly expect
widespread rain will continue thru the balance of the night with
plenty of deep moisture continuing to stream northward ahead of
the low center as it very slowly wobbles its way thru Northern
Illinois. Will maintain the Flood Watch in effect for areas along
and south of M-32 with the expectation of an additional 1 to 2
inches of rainfall overnight.

East winds gusting to 30 to 40 kts off of Lake Huron combined with
steady rainfall and high water levels will result in lakeshore
flooding along our Lake Huron shoreline areas tonight into Monday.
Will keep all Lakeshore Flooding headlines in tact.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Through Monday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020

...Rain continues...

High impact weather potential: Rising river levels and potential for
significant ponding of water in poor drainage areas. Long duration
and perhaps significant lakeshore flooding event across the coast of
northeast lower Michigan.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: All eyes obviously directed at maturing
upper level low pressure making ever so slow east progress across
central Iowa early this afternoon...with attendant and relatively
weak surface low running just out ahead of it. Direct pipeline of
Gulf of Mexico moisture within deep southerly flow directed right at
the Great Lakes (precipitable water values above 1.50 inches spiking
into southern Lake Michigan), and when combined with increasing mid
level support and favorable right entrance region upper jet
dynamics, is driving an expanding area of rain into Michigan.
Persistent dry easterly flow rotating around Quebec centered high
pressure definitely slowing its northward progress some, but simple
breadth of moisture advection and forcing should allow rain to
spread across much of northern lower Michigan by this evening.

Whole mid and upper level pattern continues to amplify tonight and
Monday, driven in large part by intense shortwave trough and upper
jet core pivoting into the western Conus. This will drive building
mid level heights into Central Canada, all-the-while Iowa low
pressure further deepens and slowly moves east...only reaching
central Illinois by Monday evening. Sustained moisture advection out
ahead of this low will remain directed into Michigan right through
Monday, although maintenance of the dry easterly flow will
definitely have plenty to say on who receives the most rainfall.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Additional rainfall totals and
attendant flooding concerns through Monday. Long duration and
potentially significant wave-driven flood threat along the northeast
lower coastline.

Details: Periods of rain will continue right through Monday as
persistent moisture advection and forcing remain. Pattern
recognition of Canadian high placement and downslope aided drying
support a rather sharp gradient to better rains, and still believe
significant rains remain south of the big bridge (northern sections
of eastern upper may not see any rain at all). As for additional
rain amounts...all convective-driven intense rain rates expected to
remain to our south...leaving simple persistence of light to
moderate rain to drive higher rain totals in northern Michigan.
Guidance derived rain total estimate plumes remain impressive, with
another widespread one to three inches of rain across much of
northern lower Michigan, with the highest totals centered south of M-
68, and especially where low level upslope will be enhanced across
northeast lower Michigan. Magnitude of moisture advection and
persistence of forcing definitely support these numbers. Given
expected rainfall rates remaining well below an inch per hour, not
expecting any type of "flash flooding" concerns. With that said,
expected rainfall totals should lead to a significant response on
area waterways, with some of our more vulnerable river basins (Rifle
River/Manistee River at Sherman) now forecast to near/exceed flood
stage early this week. Inherited flood watch covers these more
impactful areas, but will go ahead and expand the watch a few tier
of counties north to match WPC's excessive rain outlook (inland
lakes across much of northern lower running exceedingly high).

Other big issue this system brings is a long period of gusty east to
northeast winds across Lake Huron. Winds will approach gale force
tonight right through Monday on a good portion of the lake, and when
combined with excellent fetch lengths, will generate waves of 5 to 8
feet, locally higher of course. Given high lake level and
persistence of this wind, believe significant lakeshore impacts are
possible, to include substantial erosion. Will hoist lakeshore flood
warnings and advisories to account for this concern.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020

...Lingering Showers Through Tuesday...

High Impact Weather Potential...More flooding?

Forecast Concerns...Timing of the showers ending.

Our low pressure system takes it time exiting the region. Therefore
rain showers are expected to continue Monday night and likely into
Tuesday as well. Additional rainfall amounts ranging from near a
tenth to as much as a half inch. River levels should be very high to
slightly over bankfull at this point. As the upper low sinks slowly
off to our south and an upper level ridge tries to fold in from the
northwest, the shower threat should end Tuesday night with partly
cloudy and warmer conditions expected Wednesday. Have continued to
shave off a few degrees from the blend temperatures leading to highs
in the mid 50s to low 60s Tuesday and the mid 60s to near 70
Wednesday. Lows generally in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020

...Seasonably Warm Finally...

High Impact Weather Potential...Low.

Extended models are in slightly better agreement this go around that
upper level low pressure wobbles back northeast through the period.
This will try to spread lingering moisture into the region later in
the period bringing small chances for showers. Otherwise, upper
level high pressure tries to establish itself across the region.
Temperatures are expected to slowly climb through the period with
highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s Thursday then mainly the
70s for the remainder of the period. Lows generally in the upper 40s
to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 713 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020

Low pressure will very slowly drop southward from the Iowa/
Illinois border into Central Illinois by Monday evening. Deep gulf
moisture will continue to stream northward ahead of and around
this system...producing widespread rain for all of Northern Lower
Michigan tonight thru Monday. Conditions will continue to
deteriorate to MVFR and possibly IFR tonight into Monday as low
levels continue to saturate. East winds will continue to
strengthen to 15 to 25 kts with higher gusts expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020

Low pressure system will slowly move toward the Michigan and
Indiana border tonight, before it's expected to weaken and drop SE
through Ohio on Monday. This system will produce widespread rain and
gusty advisory and gale force East/NE winds through at least Monday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening for MIZ020>036-041-042.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING until 8 PM EDT Monday for MIZ024-030-036-
     042.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT Monday for MIZ017-018-
     098.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345>347.
     GALE WARNING until 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ348-349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT Monday for LSZ322.
&&

UPDATE...MR
NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
317 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-181200-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
317 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Widespread rain, at times moderate to heavy, will continue across much
of northern lower Michigan tonight. The heaviest rain totals will
likely occur along and south of the M-32 corridor. Please see the
latest flood watch for additional details.

Increasing easterly winds will likely result in lakeshore flooding
along much of the northeast lower coastline tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Periods of rain will continue through Monday. Again, the heaviest
rain totals will likely occur along and south of the M-32
corridor. Please see the latest flood watch for additional
details.

Persistent and gusty northeast winds will likely result in
continued lakeshore flooding along much of the northeast lower
Michigan coastline Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts to the
National Weather Service. Reports may be made one of three ways:

Online:   weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord
Twitter:  twitter.com/nwsgaylord

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-181200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
317 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Gale force winds are expected tonight on portions of the Lake
Huron nearshore waters tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Gale force winds are expected to continue on portions of the Lake
Huron nearshore waters Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.