Storm Warning 49, NWS Juneau, AK

406 
FZAK52 PAJK 061238
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
338 AM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-070645-
338 AM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A storm force low enters the gulf Sunday and the front will move 
through the inner channels Sunday morning. 

$$

PKZ041-070645-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
338 AM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 60 kt in the morning. Seas 19 ft. Showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 27 ft. Showers late. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 30 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 27 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 15 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-070645-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
338 AM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the morning, then
diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 60 kt in the
morning. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 27 ft. Showers. Slight chance of 
thunderstorms in the evening. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 30 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 26 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 15 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt becoming E. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-070645-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
338 AM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...STORM WARNING THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt in the morning, then
becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft building to 20 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft. Showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms in the evening. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 29 ft. Showers.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 26 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 14 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-070645-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
338 AM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt in the morning, then
diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft building to
17 ft. Rain. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms in the evening. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 26 ft. SW swell. Rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-070645-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
338 AM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft building to 18 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 26 ft. S swell in the evening.
Slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening. 
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 28 ft. Showers.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
254 PM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

.SHORT TERM.../Saturday evening through Monday/ An area of low
pressure riding up along the outer coast and into Glacier Bay
today has spread moderate to heavy rain over much of the Panhandle
Saturday afternoon. The track of the low has jogged a bit east of
what was previously expected keeping the pressure gradient solidly
out of the north in Upper Lynn Canal. Rainfall rates and amounts
have been higher than expected as well across the Southern
Panhandle (3" in 12 hours for Ketchikan) leading to minor
flooding for Ketchikan streams and lakes. The heaviest
precipitation will follow the main low center this evening towards
the Upper Lynn Canal area. With temperatures near freezing and a
northerly gradient keeping the cold air locked in place, expect
snow to persist along the Highways and around sea level for
Haines. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the Haines
Highway through noon tomorrow with 6 to 10 inches likely near the
border and lower amounts of 3 to 6 inches expected near sea level.
Colder air will stick around longer for White Pass, so the Winter
Storm Warning was extended through 3 AM Monday for the Klondike
Highway.

The next system to affect the region moves in right on the heals
of the Saturday system with little breaks in between.
Precipitation rates are expected to diminish late Saturday evening
through the early morning hours of Sunday before the front pushes
in increasing rainfall coverage and rates once again. Latest
guidance turns the pressure gradient southerly a few hours earlier
leading to a non diurnal temperature curve, especially around
Upper Lynn Canal. Expect low temperatures to occur just after
midnight and then rise overnight as the front pushes near. Expect
winds to turn southerly for Haines and Skagway after 12z, allowing
temperatures to rise and snow to change over to rain at sea level.
Another 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected with this front Sunday
to Sunday night across the entire Panhandle.

The more impactful story for the Sunday system will be the High
Wind potential across the south. As the storm force front pushes
through, a 70 kt low level jet will slam into the southern
Panhandle. The potential is there for those strong winds just
above the surface to mix down to the ground. For this reason, a
High Wind Watch has been issued for southern Prince of Wales
Island and Ketchikan Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
gusts to 60 mph.

Once the front passes through, a SW flow pattern will set up with
small waves increasing showers and rainfall rates at times.
Temperatures are expected to be above average in the 40s with
small diurnal curves. This pattern sets up Monday and will last
through the first half of the week.

.LONG TERM.../Mon through Saturday as of 10 pm Thu/ The long range
period continues to show strong indications of the active weather
pattern holding the course. Through the first half of the week a
broad area of low pressure in the Western Gulf will continue to
encourage onshore flow across the panhandle, keeping rain and
cloud cover at the forefront of the forecast. Some shortwaves
within this flow could bring chances of stronger winds and more
organized precipitation throughout the area during this time
period. Through Tuesday and Wednesday the low will slowly
dissipate. Afterwards, model agreement rapidly falls apart on the
timing and placement of the systems moving in after it.

Temperatures will be on a downward trend through the week. After
surging up with the more recent systems that have impacted the
area, CAA behind the Sunday front will begin a gradual cooling
trend which will be accelerated by cooler air moving along the
southern and western flank of the broad low in the gulf through
Wednesday. Some areas could see a return to snowfall at sea level
during this time period. Also of note is the possibility of some
periods of sun for parts of the panhandle during the second half
of the week. Though sharp disagreement remains, there are some
indications that a system on Wednesday or Thursday could track
South, which would bring Northerly flow to SE. Confidence in this
outcome remains low, and will need to be monitored.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ026.
     Strong Wind Sunday morning for AKZ026.
     Strong Wind Sunday morning for AKZ023-027.
     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
     AKZ027-028.
     Strong Wind from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for
     AKZ025.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ023.
     Areal Flood Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ020.
     Areal Flood Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ028.
     Strong Wind from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
     AKZ028.
     Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for AKZ018-019.
     Winter Storm Warning until noon AKST Sunday for AKZ019.
     Winter Storm Warning until 3 AM AKST Monday for AKZ018.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ036-042.
     Gale Warning for PKZ031-035-041-043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-032>034-053.

&&

CM/GFS

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