Small Craft Advisory 252, NWS Juneau, AK

814 
FZAK51 PAJK 292357
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
357 PM AKDT Wed Apr 29 2020

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-301615-
357 PM AKDT Wed Apr 29 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A low in the eastern gulf will weaken and dissipate  as it
slowly drifts NW into the northern gulf by Thursday  afternoon.
A ridge of high pressure over the panhandle will persist into
Thursday. Outlook. A weather front will approach the southern
panhandle late Friday.    

$$

PKZ011-301615-
Glacier Bay-
357 PM AKDT Wed Apr 29 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Rain
showers. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-301615-
Northern Lynn Canal-
357 PM AKDT Wed Apr 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt early in the evening.
Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming 10 kt late. Seas 4 ft in the 
evening then 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-301615-
Southern Lynn Canal-
357 PM AKDT Wed Apr 29 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft in the evening then
2 ft or less. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...N wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-301615-
Icy Strait-
357 PM AKDT Wed Apr 29 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-301615-
Cross Sound-
357 PM AKDT Wed Apr 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt in the late evening. 
Seas 9 ft. Showers.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon.
SW swell in the morning. Showers.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-301615-
Stephens Passage-
357 PM AKDT Wed Apr 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming 15 kt late. Seas 5 ft subsiding
to 3 ft late. Showers in the evening.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then
2 ft or less. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-301615-
Northern Chatham Strait-
357 PM AKDT Wed Apr 29 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers in
the evening. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then
2 ft or less. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-301615-
Southern Chatham Strait-
357 PM AKDT Wed Apr 29 2020

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 10 ft 
near ocean entrances. Rain showers in the evening. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then
2 ft or less. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-301615-
Frederick Sound-
357 PM AKDT Wed Apr 29 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers in the evening. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming E late. Seas 2 ft or
less. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-301615-
Sumner Strait-
357 PM AKDT Wed Apr 29 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean 
entrances. Showers early in the evening. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming E late. Seas 2 ft or
less. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-301615-
Clarence Strait-
357 PM AKDT Wed Apr 29 2020

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the late evening.
Seas 4 ft in the evening then 2 ft or less. Showers early in the
evening.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
645 AM AKDT Wed Apr 29 2020

.SHORT TERM...The low from the Tuesday storm has moved to the
northeast Gulf of Alaska and should dissipate by Thursday
afternoon. The flow pattern about the remains of the low at the
surface and lower levels of the atmosphere will keep the showers
and moisture headed onshore primarily for the northern panhandle.
The southern panhandle may have larger breaks between the more
enhanced clouds with the low further away from that section of
the panhandle. Headed into Thursday night the breaks are spreading
north along with an ending of the rain.

Still will be some gusty winds around on Wednesday as a push of
southerly winds through the panhandles inner channels. Small Craft
winds will continue to most of the day for central and southern
panhandle, as they slowly diminish as well Wednesday. Lynn Canal
winds should flip south this afternoon and increase to 20 kt for
the later afternoon and overnight.

A brief break in the precipitation from late Thursday into Friday
is what most of the model solutions are suggesting headed to the
weekend. A large low stops south of the gulf on Friday and
rotates a front north to the southern panhandle along with a
developing following wave poised to move north past Haida Gwaii.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday as of 10 pm Tuesday/ A
broad upper level trough will be the dominate feature through the
the extended period. This will direct the strongest jet stream
energy south of the Panhandle. A large upper low will be in place
over the Gulf. In the later part of the forecast period, the
upper trough will begin to shift further west allowing more energy
to pass over the Panhandle.

Main changes to the long term included further lowering POP across
the northern panhandle on Friday, bumping up Gulf wind speeds as
a surface low pushes North from the Pacific on Saturday, and
increasing high temps through the forecast period. Friday looks
increasingly drier as low that will impact the area on Thursday
dissolves into the NW Gulf. By late Friday, a strong low pushes
north from the Pacific but looks to only make it as far as 50 N
latitude before stalling. Increased winds to 25-30 kt along the
southern outside waters. Pressure gradients will allow for a more
offshore flow Friday and Saturday, so a break in clouds are
possible across the northern Panhandle. An additional low will
approach the Gulf by Saturday and reorganize itself with the
parent low that was stalled along the 50 N. This reorganized low
will then advance further N into the Gulf where precip chances
will become more likely late weekend and throughout next week.

Temperatures look to warm aloft this weekend as easterly flow
advects warmer air into the Panhandle from BC. At 850mb, guidance
suggest temps around 4 degrees C by Saturday. With sufficient
mixing, temps could easily warm into the upper 50s across the
Panhandle. For the back end of the extended period, next Wed thru
Friday, there are a few conflicting solutions on intensity/timing
of systems that could impact the panhandle. Due to this,
confidence is lower in pinpointing any impactful surface
features, but confidence is higher that a continued wet pattern
will continue.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Areal Flood Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Thursday for AKZ028.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031>035-042-043-051-052.

&&

Bezenek/CC

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