High Wind Warning 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

667 
WWAK72 PAFG 062135
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
135 PM AKDT Sun Sep 6 2020

AKZ227-071400-
/O.CON.PAFG.HW.W.0004.200907T0300Z-200908T0000Z/
Upper Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of McGrath, Nikolai, Takotna, 
and Farewell Lake
135 PM AKDT Sun Sep 6 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 PM AKDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 70 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Near passes in the Alaska Range.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees. Travel could 
  be difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means hazardous high winds are occurring or
expected. Take precautions to protect life and prevent property
damage.

&&

$$

392 
WWAK72 PAFG 071319
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
519 AM AKDT Mon Sep 7 2020

AKZ227-080000-
/O.CON.PAFG.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200908T0000Z/
Upper Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of McGrath, Nikolai, Takotna, 
and Farewell Lake
519 AM AKDT Mon Sep 7 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 70 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Near passes in the Alaska Range.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees. Travel could be
  difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means hazardous high winds are occurring or
expected. Take precautions to protect life and prevent property
damage.

&&

$$

080 
WWAK72 PAFG 072040
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1240 PM AKDT Mon Sep 7 2020

AKZ227-072145-
/O.CAN.PAFG.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200908T0000Z/
Upper Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of McGrath, Nikolai, Takotna, 
and Farewell Lake
1240 PM AKDT Mon Sep 7 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
130 PM AKDT Sat Sep 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...The West Coast has already seen some clearing and the
Interior will see some clearing tonight. No much change expected
in the Arctic, but the low clouds may lift some. A very strong low
moving up the West Coast Sunday and Monday will bring very strong
southeast to southwest winds to areas near Alaska Range Passes
starting late Sunday and continuing into Tuesday. Peak winds of
up to 75 mph can be expected near the passes. The strong winds
are also expected to impact Delta Junction, the Robertson River
area, and Tanacross with gusts near 50 mph. On the West Coast many
locations will have north to east winds gusting into the 40 to 50
mph range as the low moves through. Temperatures will be warmer to
start the week, but cooling by the end of the week. Some pretty
heavy rains expected in the Upper Kobuk Basin starting Monday and
continuing through midweek with potential for around 3 inches of
rain, so will keep a close watch on that area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 05/12Z solutions show some pretty good agreement
through most of the extended periods. Solutions even show good
agreement in the evolution of the low moving out of the North
Pacific up the West Coast. Surface solutions matched up well
against the local 05/15Z surface analysis but where a couple mb
weaker in most cases. Will be using a general blend for most of
the forecast. Winds will need to be adjusted accordingly since
models struggle with the gap/chinook winds. Will not be making
many changes to the temperatures, but some areas near the Alaska
Range will be much warmer than the solution are indicating so will
make some adjustments there.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 557 dam high has moved over Livengood and
will drift south and east as it weakens tonight. A shortwave
associated with a 545 dam low 200 nm west of Point Lay lies from
the low over Ambler to Telida and will move northeast to lie from
Utqiagvik to Livengood by Sunday morning, and will be east of the
AlCan by Sunday afternoon as the low moves to 200 nm north of
Utqiagvik. A second branch from the ridge will rotate from the
Northeast Bering Sea over the West Coast and southwest mainland
with the axis lying from Cordova to Tanana to the Bering Strait. A
538 dam low that was in the Western Bering Sea will dive south
over the North Pacific and pick up whatever energy is left from
the remnants of Typhoon Maysak and move to Dutch Harbor Sunday
morning at 533 dam, the Pribilofs by Sunday evening at 530 dam,
and Cape Romanzof by Monday morning at 538 dam. As the low moves
up the West Coast the ridge axis over the state will move to lie
from Yakutat to Fairbanks to Point Hope Sunday evening, and east
of the AlCan late Monday morning. The low will move to the Bering
Strait and merge with troughing that extends southwest over the
Arctic from a 519 dam low near the Pole. At 850 hpa...0C
isotherm will be moving back north of the Tanana Valley this
evening, and by Sunday afternoon it will lie along the crest of
the Brooks Range as warmer air surges north as the ridging swings
over the state. By Monday afternoon the 0C isotherm will be over
the Arctic Coast and southern Chukchi Sea. The warmest
temperatures will be in the upper Tanana Valley Monday.

Surface...High pressure extends southeast across the state from a
1032 mb high in the Bering Strait to a 1028 mb high in the Tanana
Flats. A weak trough in northeast of the high pressure with a 1023
mb low near Point Lay and a 1025 mb low near Chalkyitsik. A 1026
mb high is just south of Prince William Sound, and a 990 mb low
has moved to 200 nm south of Sand Point. Sunday afternoon the high
pressure will lie from a 1027 mb high 300 nm northwest of Point
Lay across the Eastern Brooks Range to a 1034 mb high in the
Central Yukon Territory. Strong low will move out of the North
Pacific to Nikolski Sunday morning, the Pribilofs Sunday evening
at 986 mb, and Cape Romanzof Monday morning at 992 mb. Very strong
gradient develops across the Alaska Range Sunday night with 9 to
12 mb squeezed across the area. The strong gradient will slowly
weaken Monday night. The low will move to Kotzebue Sound by
Tuesday morning at 1004 mb with a 1004 mb low off the Yukon Delta
Coast. High pressure will continue to hang on over the Southeast
Interior and Copper River Basin. High pressure in the Arctic will
persist with the high moving to 100 nm northeast of Wrangel Island
at 1019 mb and high pressure extending east along 74N. A front
associated with the low on the West Coast will move over the
Arctic Coast Tuesday night with a 1008 mb low developing near
Prudhoe Bay, then moving east. By Wednesday morning the lows on
the West Coast will merge as a 1012 mb low in Kotzebue Sound, and
by late Thursday they it will merge with a 1018 mb low near Arctic
Village.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Some improving conditions this
evening, with showers developing over the area tonight and
continuing into Sunday afternoon before tapering off. Patchy fog
developing overnight with the showers. Southwest to west winds 5
to 15 mph will continue into Sunday, then turn from the northeast
Sunday evening. Winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph Monday.
Temperatures slightly warmer the next couple days.

West Coast and Western Interior...Strong low will be moving up
the Coast Sunday bringing increased clouds and showers, along with
strong gusty mainly offshore winds to the area. Winds variable to
10 mph tonight will be turning from the northeast to east Sunday
and increasing to 15 to 30 mph gusting to around 50 mph in some
areas. Rainfall amounts through Monday will be less than one half
inch. Heavier rainfall expected as the low moves north with upslope
enhancement from the Western Brooks Range. Potential rainfall in
the Upper Kobuk of around 3 inches. Winds will diminish Tuesday as
the low weakens. Temperatures slightly warmer through midweek.

Central and Eastern Interior...Some clearing overnight, Very
strong winds developing near the Alaska Range passes Sunday night,
and Monday, and High Wind Watches remain in effect. Strong winds
are also expected to impact Delta Junction, the Robertson River
area, and Tanacross. Increasing chance of showers Monday, but
mainly north of the Tanana Valley as a broad rainshadow will
develop with the strong downslope winds in the Alaska Range.
Temperatures slightly warmer through midweek. As the low hangs out
over the West Coast expect increasing chances of showers northwest
of Delta Junction Tuesday as winds through the passes diminish.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Strong northeast winds
will produce elevated surf on the north side of St Lawrence
Island that will be diminishing on Wednesday.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A strong low will be moving up
the West Coast spreading heavy rain to the Western Brooks Range.
The low will move east along the south slopes of the Brooks Range
Wednesday and merge with a 1021 mb low over the Upper Yukon Flats
Thursday night. A weather front in the Arctic will move to the
Northwest Coast Friday morning and move southeast into the
Northern Interior with the low over the Flats merging into it. The
front will slide north over the Brooks Range and slowly weaken.
High pressure will move over the southwest mainland Thursday
pushing east over the north slopes of the Alaska Range Thursday
night. Cooler weather on the way for the Arctic late in the week
as the cold front moves east across the area. Temperatures will
also be falling across the remainder of the area, but slowly.

&&

.Fire Weather...High pressure moving over the area will bring some
drying. Very strong winds near the Alaska Range Passes starting
Sunday afternoon will bring Relative Humidity values in the area
down sharply, but still above 30 percent, so no issues anticipated
at this time. Areas away from the Alaska Range will continue to
see good overnight recovery.

&&

.Hydrology...No issues expected through Tuesday. Strong low
moving up the West Coast will bring some heavy rains, with around
3 inches of rainfall, to the south slopes of the Western Brooks
Range that will drain into the Kobuk and Noatak basins. Rivers and
streams in the area may see significant rises starting midweek.
For the latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

High Wind Watch for AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210.

&&

SDB SEP 20