Storm Warning 75, NWS Anchorage, AK

330 
FZAK52 PAFC 091137
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
337 AM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-100030-
337 AM AKDT Sat May 9 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front over the central Bering weakens as it moves into the
northern Bering through Sat evening. The associated low moves
towards the Kamchatka Peninsula Sat evening. A second front over
the Western Aleutians Sat evening moves to the central Bering
midday Sun, then weakens in place.

$$

PKZ150-100030-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
337 AM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ155-100030-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
337 AM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-100030-
Bristol Bay-
337 AM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-100030-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
337 AM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ170-100030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
337 AM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ171-100030-
Unalaska Bay-
337 AM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-100030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
337 AM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-100030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
337 AM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-100030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
337 AM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-100030-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
337 AM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-100030-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
337 AM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-100030-
Adak to Kiska-
337 AM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-100030-
Kiska to Attu-
337 AM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft subsiding to 14 ft after midnight.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-100030-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
337 AM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-100030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
337 AM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-100030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
337 AM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Rain and
snow.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ185-100030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
337 AM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SE 25 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 15 ft in the
afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

820 
FZAK52 PAFC 092321
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
321 PM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-101215-
321 PM AKDT Sat May 9 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 967 mb low 360 nm North of Attu moves to the Sea of Okhotsk and
dissipates by Mon afternoon. Its front remains nearly stationary
in the Central Bering and weakens through Mon afternoon. A 984 mb
South Kamchatka low moves to 340 nm West of Attu for Mon 
afternoon. Its front approaches the Western Aleutians through Mon 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-101215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
321 PM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ155-101215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
321 PM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-101215-
Bristol Bay-
321 PM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-101215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
321 PM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ170-101215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
321 PM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ171-101215-
Unalaska Bay-
321 PM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-101215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
321 PM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-101215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
321 PM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ174-101215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
321 PM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-101215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
321 PM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ176-101215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
321 PM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-101215-
Adak to Kiska-
321 PM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-101215-
Kiska to Attu-
321 PM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft subsiding to 14 ft after midnight.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-101215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
321 PM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-101215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
321 PM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-101215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
321 PM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Rain and
snow.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ185-101215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
321 PM AKDT Sat May 9 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SE 25 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 15 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
505 AM AKDT Fri May 8 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A large area of low pressure centered hundreds of miles south of
Kodiak Island is spreading clouds and moisture all across Southern
Alaska this morning. The low itself will get a bit closer, but the
center remains well south of the area. The key features of impact
are an occluded front causing strong winds through the mountains
and the gaps, strong easterly onshore flow into Kodiak Island with
around an inch of new rain reported over the last day or so, and
scattered shower activity across Southwest Alaska. Temperatures
crashed nearly 20 degrees from two days ago yesterday, with many
areas struggling to hit the 50 degree mark. Across the Kuskokwim
Delta where the clouds were last to come in, highs soared well
into the 60s yesterday. Satellite shows much of the cloud cover
across all of Southern Alaska is a stratiform type, so despite
very unstable conditions in the lower atmosphere, it is not
translating to any convective shower activity, as the cloud layers
are above much of the instability, which is also a dry air mass.

In the upper levels, a strong upper level low is vertically
stacked with the large surface low well south of Kodiak. This is
keeping the upper levels very amplified, with the associated
trough extending down to 35N latitude. Meanwhile, ridging is
building into the western Bering, and a second area is also over
the Rockies.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models continue to be in excellent agreement regarding the
evolution of the large scale weather pattern. Precipitation at the
coast, particularly in Kodiak and along the Kenai Peninsula, and
the strength and timing of the gap winds remain the primary
forecast challenges. The strength and timing of the winds through
the Knik River Valley have been particularly challenging thusfar.
Overall forecast confidence remains very high.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist into this
afternoon. After 00Z, the Turnagain Arm wind will approach the
area, which could cause gusts to 20 kt at times into the evening.
The winds will diminish late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An occluded front over the northern Gulf slowly weakens through
this evening. With strong southeasterly flow in the lower
elevations, the brunt of the rain will fall along the coasts with
general downslope drying mitigating any significant rainfall
inland of the coastal mountains. Gusty gap winds are expected
across Turnagain Arm and out of the Knik River Valley. With a
strengthening thermal trough inland and ridging along the coast,
the Turnagain Arm wind will bend into town this afternoon along
with winds becoming fairly gusty there and out of Knik River
Valley. Winds in most areas will diminish tonight.

Drier and warmer conditions are expected with decreasing cloud
and warming 850 mb temps associated with an intensifying thermal
trough inland. Afternoon highs on Saturday will be in the 60s in
many inland areas with RH values in the 20s. The good news is
there will not be much wind other than relatively light local wind
regimes inland and perhaps coastal sea breezes Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Friday
through Sunday)...

Gusty winds that were in place across the Alaska Peninsula have
diminished this morning. A few scattered showers near the Bristol
Bay area are expected to dissipate through the afternoon hours.
Conditions across Southwest will remain fairly quiet until an
upper level wave arrives by Sunday. This disturbance will likely
produce a short period of gusty winds, especially across the
Bristol Bay area and coastal regions. With elevated midlevel
southeasterly winds still in place, most areas should remain dry
due to downsloping.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Friday
through Sunday)...

The leading front associated with a storm force low has reached
the western Aleutians this morning. Rain and gusty winds will
spread across the Chain through the day. As the front moves
eastward, winds are expected to increase to storm force over the
western Bering as the low strengthens and passes just west of
Shemya. By this evening, the front occludes and stalls near the
Pribilof Islands. On the backside of this low, colder air
wrapping in will allow for a showery regime across the western
Bering for the weekend. The remnant frontal boundary remains
nearly stationary over the eastern Bering through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3-5 Sunday through Tuesday)...
The general pattern will consist of low pressure over the Bering
Sea and Aleutians, and high pressure over mainland Alaska and the
Gulf. Winds are expected to stay below gale force, with small
craft advisory winds limited to the Aleutians and Bering.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4-7 Monday through Thursday)...
The general pattern for the extended portion of the forecast will
consist of a ridge over mainland Alaska and a trough over the
Bering Sea and Aleutians. The pattern will have a negative tilt,
with the interface between the ridge and trough roughly over
southwest Alaska. The main forecast challenge is the degree to
which clouds and precipitation will be over southwest Alaska (and
possibly Southcentral by Thursday) at that interface between the
trough and ridge. Temperatures will mostly be above normal.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Warning: 155.
		 Flood Advisory: 155.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 411-413.
Gale Warning: 119 120 130 131 138 139 173 175 177-179 185 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO
MARINE/LONG TERM...BL