Storm Warning 72, NWS Anchorage, AK

696 
FZAK51 PAFC 072352
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
352 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-081300-
352 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1002 mb low at Sitkinak Island Tue afternoon moves to 110 nm SE of
Seward Wed morning at 992 mb, then moves to 110 nm SW of Yakutat at 
1000 mb Wed afternoon. The low moves inland near Yakutat Wed night. 
High pressure builds across the Gulf Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-081300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
352 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft
building to 17 ft after midnight. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.WED...N wind 50 kt in the morning becoming NW 30 kt. E of Middleton
Island, S wind 30 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft. Snow 
showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 16 ft subsiding to 11 ft after midnight.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-081300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
352 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt in the evening increasing to 50 kt. Seas 12
ft building to 18 ft after midnight. Snow.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-081300-
Resurrection Bay-
352 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening increasing to 30 kt. Seas
building to 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray after midnight.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-081300-
Prince William Sound-
352 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-081300-
Port Valdez-
352 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after 
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-081300-
Valdez Narrows-
352 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt in the evening increasing to 35 kt. Seas
building to 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 
ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-081300-
Valdez Arm-
352 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 
ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-081300-
Passage Canal-
352 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Gusts to 30
kt near Whittier after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray after midnight.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-081300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
352 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-081300-
Barren Islands East-
352 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt in the evening increasing to 50 kt. Seas 12
in the evening building to 17 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-081300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
352 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt becoming N 45 kt after midnight. Seas 10
ft building to 16 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft subsiding to 11 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-081300-
Chiniak Bay-
352 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt in the evening becoming N. Seas 13 ft 
subsiding to 9 ft after midnight. Snow and rain.
.WED...NW wind 30 in the morning diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft in
the morning subsiding to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-081300-
Marmot Bay-
352 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 9 ft after
midnight. Snow.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt in the morning diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft
in the morning subsiding to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-081300-
Shelikof Strait-
352 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt becoming N 35 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft subsiding to 11 ft after midnight. Snow.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of bays and passes. Seas 9 
ft in the morning subsiding to 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-081300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
352 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt in the evening increasing to 40 kt. Seas 9 ft
in the evening building to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-081300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
352 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-081300-
Kachemak Bay-
352 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 4 ft. 
Freezing spray after midnight.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

110 
FZAK51 PAFC 081126
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
326 AM AKDT Wed Apr 8 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-090030-
326 AM AKDT Wed Apr 8 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 990 mb low 70 nm southwest of Middleton Island Wed morning 
moves inland near Yakutat at 1001 mb by Wed afternoon. The 
associated front continues to weaken through Thu morning. 
High pressure builds across the Gulf Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-090030-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
326 AM AKDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W of Middleton Island, N wind 45 kt becoming NW 25 kt in 
the afternoon. E of Middleton Island, Variable wind 20 kt becoming 
NW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 10 ft in the
afternoon. Snow and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ120-090030-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
326 AM AKDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 50 kt becoming NW 35 kt by late morning. 
Seas 20 ft subsiding to 12 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ121-090030-
Resurrection Bay-
326 AM AKDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Gusts to 45 kt in the morning. 
Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-090030-
Prince William Sound-
326 AM AKDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-090030-
Port Valdez-
326 AM AKDT Wed Apr 8 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-090030-
Valdez Narrows-
326 AM AKDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-090030-
Valdez Arm-
326 AM AKDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-090030-
Passage Canal-
326 AM AKDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Gusts to 45 kt near Whittier. Seas 5 ft.
Freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt near Whittier in the morning.
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-090030-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
326 AM AKDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray 
in the morning.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-090030-
Barren Islands East-
326 AM AKDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-090030-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
326 AM AKDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, NW wind 45 kt
becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 
10 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-090030-
Chiniak Bay-
326 AM AKDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt late. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-090030-
Marmot Bay-
326 AM AKDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt late. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-090030-
Shelikof Strait-
326 AM AKDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of bays and passes 
in the morning. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-090030-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
326 AM AKDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt early, then becoming NW 25 kt. Seas 12 ft
early, subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray in the
morning.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-090030-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
326 AM AKDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt early, then becoming NW 15 kt. 
Seas 8 ft early, subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. 
Freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after 
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-090030-
Kachemak Bay-
326 AM AKDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt becoming NW 20 kt by late morning.
Gusts to 30 kt in the morning. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft 
in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 8 ft 
subsiding to 4 ft late.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 PM AKDT Mon Apr 6 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A strong, vertically-stacked low over the Interior continues to
dominate weather over much of the mainland. This low has been
responsible for the winds across much of Southcentral the past 36
hours. A strong upper level jet (300 mb 30,000') has offered
support flowing quickly from west to east at 150 kts. A "parting"
shortwave passed across the Susitna Valley down through the Kenai
Peninsula this morning. This feature brought the last, best surge
of winds. Overall, the winds should continue to diminish across
the area. Things are relatively quiet across the Bering with just
one smaller shortwave passing by the Pribilof Islands. This system
has some cold air behind it (850 mb -18C), so with steep lapse
rates, it will bring some heavy snow showers to the Pribilof
Islands and the eastern Bering. Another finger of the 300 mb jet
is pushing down the backside of this system at about 85 kts.

Finally, the main player associated with a developing storm system
can be seen on satellite. All of the moisture over the N Pacific
is slowly drifting NE towards the Gulf of AK. The shortwave over
the Bering (and its trailing cold air advection) will work in
tandem with this moisture to produce a strong system just east of
Kodiak Island on Tuesday.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models have struggled greatly with the upcoming storm in the Gulf
of AK. Yesterday, all models trended it further to the east and
left it to really only impact winds and waves across the Gulf.
Now, all models have trended significantly further to the west
with the low. The net effect will be the potential for heavy snow
and strong winds for Kodiak Island. This forecast package has
trended towards that solution and vastly increased QPF, winds, and
waves. However, we did not go 100% to any one solution as the
models continue to show signs of variability. All that said, there
is potential to bring in more significant weather to Kodiak and
the Gulf Coast if the evening model runs provide better clarity.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. SW winds will persist through
the daylight hours before they taper off later this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Thursday)...

A few scattered snow showers along with gusty westerly winds will
persist through the evening hours before diminishing overnight as
the upper-level trough slides east. The lighter winds and
diminished cloud cover will allow overnight low temperatures to
drop into the teens across much of Southcentral, with some areas
of single digits within sheltered valleys and the Copper River
Basin. Cool and dry conditions continue across the Southcentral
mainland tomorrow as a ridge builds out ahead of an upper-level
shortwave sliding southeast across the AKPEN. This system will
induce the development of a potent north Pacific low that will
strength as it moves east of Kodiak Tuesday, with gales increasing
to storm-force winds along the north Gulf coast by late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning.

While there is still a bit of uncertainty with the exact track of
this low, there has been better model consensus keeping the
center of circulation closer to the east coast of Kodiak Island.
This would yield stronger winds and heavier precipitation for the
island beginning Tuesday morning, continuing through the early
morning hours on Wednesday. It also looks like temperatures will
remain cold enough aloft and just cold enough near the surface for
this to be mainly a snow event, albeit a heavy, wet snow. Rain
may mix in at times along the immediate coast, but accumulating
snow is expected, with 5 to 10 inches possible. A Winter Storm
Watch is currently out for this event.

By late Tuesday, snow and gusty northerly winds will also develop
over Cordova, ahead of the storm-force front. The snow and blowing
snow is then expected to spread over Thompson pass and parts of
the southern Copper River Basin overnight Tuesday and linger into
Wednesday afternoon. With a storm track from east of Kodiak to
Yakutat, areas of Southcentral north and east of the Kenai and
Chugach Mountains should remain cool and dry, only having to
content with an increase in cloud cover. As the storm exits on the
region on Wednesday, offshore gap winds will once again
strengthen along the north Gulf coast and Prince William Sound.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Thursday)...

The eastern periphery of a low centered east of the Pribilofs will
be moving into the Kuskokwim Delta and the Western Capes tonight.
This will cause snow showers to develop, but accumulations should
be limited to a few inches at most. During the day Tuesday, the
showers will shift southward, with the snow shower activity
shifting to around the coastal Bristol Bay area. Clouds will
persist over the area through Thursday. Another front will skirt
the Kuskokwim Delta on Thursday, bringing another round of snow
showers to the area. Temperatures through Thursday will remain
well below normal, with highs in the upper 20s and 30s, while lows
are in the single digits and teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Thursday)...

A small low centered just east of the Pribilofs is producing a
small area of gale force winds in the waters around and east of
the islands this afternoon. The models have finally come into
better agreement that the low will shift southward. The center of
the low will be near the Port Heiden area on Tuesday morning.
Thus, small craft to minimal gale force northerly winds will
continue on the Bering side of the Alaska Peninsula through
Tuesday. A second low will move across the northern Bering on
Tuesday, but it will be weak, and will dissipate on Wednesday.

A front and associated low will move into the western Aleutians
Tuesday afternoon and evening. It will gradually shear apart as it
moves into the central Bering, but a portion of the front will
persist into the northern Bering on Wednesday. The associated low
will track near the western and central Aleutians Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...(Thursday through Saturday)

Bering Sea/Aleutians…

A 998 mb low just south of the Rat Islands Thursday afternoon
will send an associated near gale force front into the west
central Aleutians. This front will reach the Alaska Peninsula by
Friday afternoon and looks to remain just under gale force. The
associated low moves into the northwest Bering as another low and
associated front approaches the western Aleutians from the North
Pacific.

Gulf of Alaska…

A strong area of high pressure centered over the Copper River Basin
will keep the Gulf dry with light winds for Thursday and Friday,
before a near gale force front approaches the southern Gulf on
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Model guidance remains in good agreement on the upper level
pattern Friday into Saturday as an upper level ridge dominates
most of the mainland of Alaska. This will continue the theme of a
warming trend in temperatures with each day being warmer than the
previous. Overall, a warmer and dry pattern for the mainland.
Beyond Saturday, some differences are beginning to emerge that
weren’t quite evident in the models yesterday. Model guidance is
now hinting at a storm system over the North Pacific south of the
central Aleutians being drawn northward that may undercut the
ridge and bring a possible period of unsettled weather out there
for the second half of next weekend. Model guidance then really
spreads out beyond Sunday night of next weekend with the GFS
showing a more amplified ridge while the other model shows a
flatter weaker ridge moving in behind the aforementioned storm
system. An upper level trough is expected to be present over
eastern Russia and into the North Pacific Sunday night through
Monday showing a potential storm system moving northward. This may
bring a period of unsettled weather and increase in winds to the
Aleutian Chain and the Bering during this time. However, the exact
track and strength of this feature is still yet to be determined
with diminishing forecast confidence beyond Sunday.
&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch 171.
MARINE...Gale 131 132 138 179.
		 Storm 119 120.
 		 Heavy Freezing Spray 180-185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
MARINE/LONG TERM...PD/MV