Storm Warning 70, NWS Anchorage, AK

057 
FZAK52 PAFC 031147
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
347 AM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-040045-
347 AM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 978 mb low 380 nm SW of Shemya will move to 370 nm NE of Shemya
at 989 mb Sat morning then move into the Bering Strait by Sun
morning.

$$

PKZ150-040045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
347 AM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-040045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
347 AM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-040045-
Bristol Bay-
347 AM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-040045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
347 AM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-040045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
347 AM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-040045-
Unalaska Bay-
347 AM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-040045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
347 AM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ173-040045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
347 AM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-040045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
347 AM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-040045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
347 AM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-040045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
347 AM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-040045-
Adak to Kiska-
347 AM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
24 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-040045-
Kiska to Attu-
347 AM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft building to 29 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 29 ft. Snow.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-040045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
347 AM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-040045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
347 AM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Snow and
rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ181-040045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
347 AM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt.
.MON...W wind 15 kt.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ185-040045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
347 AM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

057 
FZAK52 PAFC 032338
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
338 PM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-041300-
338 PM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 988 mb low 330 nm NW of Shemya this afternoon will move into the
northern Bering Saturday afternoon. A front will enter the western
Bering Sunday morning and move into the central Bering Sunday
afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-041300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
338 PM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-041300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
338 PM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ160-041300-
Bristol Bay-
338 PM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.

$$

PKZ165-041300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
338 PM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-041300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
338 PM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-041300-
Unalaska Bay-
338 PM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-041300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
338 PM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-041300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
338 PM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-041300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
338 PM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-041300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
338 PM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-041300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
338 PM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ177-041300-
Adak to Kiska-
338 PM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
23 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-041300-
Kiska to Attu-
338 PM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-041300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
338 PM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-041300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
338 PM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Freezing 
spray.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.

$$

PKZ181-041300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
338 PM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Snow showers and rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt.
.MON...W wind 15 kt.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt.
.WED...S wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ185-041300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
338 PM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
501 AM AKDT Thu Apr 2 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The complex pattern of upper level features that has been with us
for several days churns on with an upper level ridge still in
place in the western Gulf and double upper lows in the north
Pacific interacting with a frontal boundary associated with a
Siberian low. Sensible weather has been fog and stratus in the
Kuskokwim Delta, rain and stratus in Bristol Bay, light snow in
the cold air behind the front in the eastern Aleutians, some rain
falling on the western edge of the Kenai Peninsula, snow showers
reaching into the Susitna Valley, and snow in the Anchorage metro
area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model agreement for most features looks pretty consistent until
Saturday afternoon, where tracks for the Bering low begin to
deviate. However, does look like western Alaska remains in same
general flow pattern with various model solutions as the low
tracks ashore. The southerly extent of precipitation into Bristol
Bay could be of concern here, as well as precipitation types with
a long fetch of southwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Expect light snow at the terminal. Low level flow will
shift to south- southwest during the day, so while snow will
remain light, ceilings will likely drop. Generally expect MVFR
conditions. If conditions do drop to IFR, it should be brief in
nature.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level trough will move into Southcentral today and
tonight. This will bring precipitation to the area, spreading from
west to east. Temperatures aloft are cold enough that
precipitation will generally be snow for inland areas. Surface
temperatures will be warm enough that accumulations will be
limited, and the snow may occasionally mix with some rain. Coastal
areas will see a mix of rain and snow, or possibly all rain. The
trough will push east of the area by Friday afternoon and a
short-wave upper level ridge will nudge into the area. Some clouds
and moisture will remain over the area as this ridge will be
"dirty", but chances of precipitation are fairly low.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper level shortwave continues to move through the interior
part of Southwest Alaska this morning. In its wake, low level
stratus and fog have blanketed the coastal areas including the
Kuskokwim Delta coast and the Bristol Bay coast. Light snow
showers are tapering off over the Lower Kuskokwim Valley this
morning, though snowfall is expected to continue along the
foothills of the Alaska Range through this evening, with about 4
inches expected near Iliamna. The big challenge with this
forecast has been precipitation type, especially over the Bristol
Bay area. A mix of snow and rain will likely continue through the
morning across interior parts of Bristol Bay. Farther south over
the Alaska Peninsula, rain is expected to continue a bit longer
before tapering off this afternoon as moisture advection ceases in
the midlevels. By Friday, another system approaches Southwest
bringing a second round of mixed precipitation. Of note, winds
will also increase beginning Friday evening, especially along the
coast. With colder air initially in place at the surface and warm
air moving in aloft, the forecast challenge will once again be
determining precipitation type with this event as it moves across
the region Friday night into Saturday. As the low moves inland
over the Kuskokwim Delta coast, cold northerly flow on the
backside will return, forcing any lingering showers to fall as
snow late Saturday into Sunday. Expect colder temperatures and
onshore flow through the end of the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Weak low pressure in the northern Bering continues to dissipate
and exit to the north through this evening. Another low approaches
the Bering today, with the leading front approaching the western
Aleutians this morning. Gusty southerly winds and rain will
spread in along the Chain as the front reaches the central Bering
by early Friday morning. The main change in the overnight
forecast with this system was a slight increase in winds across
the Bering as pockets of storm force winds are possible over the
south-central Bering waters Friday afternoon into Saturday. As
the low center moves into the northern Bering Saturday, cold
northerly flow will fill in on the backside, bringing much cooler
temperatures to the entirety of the Bering for Sunday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Saturday through Monday)...

Bering Sea/Aleutians...
There is a high degree of confidence that widespread gale force
winds will occur across the Bering on Saturday and continue into
Sunday morning. Confidence is much lower with a weak low
developing in the western Bering on Sunday, then moving into the
eastern Bering on Monday, as guidance shows major discrepancies
with the placement and track of this low. As of now, the winds
associated with this weak low are expected to remain below gale
force and the compact nature of the low means the core of
strongest winds would affect a small area.

Gulf of Alaska...
The most significant weather for the Gulf will be strong cold air
advection across the Alaska Peninsula and into the Gulf. The best
estimate of timing is beginning sometime Saturday night and
continuing through the day Sunday. While the current forecast
advertises small craft advisory winds, there is good potential
that these winds could reach gale force, with storm force gusts
out of bays and passes along the Alaska Peninsula. These strong
northwesterly gap winds will also increase the chance of freezing
spray.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Sunday through Wednesday)...

There is consistency with the general synoptic pattern across the
region on Sunday with an upper low over the Seward Peninsula and
an upper ridge over the eastern portion of the Alaskan mainland
near the AlCan border. This means temperatures will be generally
cooler to the west and warmer to the east. Forecast confidence
decreases into Monday as guidance shows a higher degree of
variation in the placement of the upper low as well as the
placement of the upper trough associated with this low. This is
significant because this means our confidence is lower in where
precipitation will occur and how intense the precipitation will
be across the Alaskan mainland. One area of consistency is that
due to the strong cold air advection expected with this trough,
the precipitation type will most likely be snow. Guidance shows
a more consistent synoptic set up across the area on Tuesday
with an upper trough over the Alaskan mainland while an upper
ridge is present across the Bering/Aleutians. Due to this, the
coldest temperatures are expected across Southcentral on Tuesday.
Confidence then becomes very low on Wednesday as guidance shows
a very high degree of variation between the upper level synoptic
pattern which will then influence the surface synoptic pattern.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 165 170 173 174 176 177 178 179 411 412 414.
         Storm Warning 175 413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LTB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO
MARINE/LONG TERM...ED