Storm Warning 23, NWS Anchorage, AK

594 
FZAK62 PAFC 091254
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
354 AM AKST Sun Feb 9 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-100200-
354 AM AKST Sun Feb 9 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 976 mb North Pacific low at 47N 168E Sun morning moves to 49N 166E
at 954 mb Mon morning then continues to 51N 167E at 958 mb for Mon 
afternoon. Its front sweeps the Aleutians by Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-100200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
354 AM AKST Sun Feb 9 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming E 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow and rain.
.MON...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
Snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-100200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
354 AM AKST Sun Feb 9 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming N up to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
Snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ413-100200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
354 AM AKST Sun Feb 9 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind up to 20 kt becoming E 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft building to 9 to
17 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow and rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Freezing spray. Snow with rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ414-100200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
354 AM AKST Sun Feb 9 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 10 to 20 kt except variable 15 kt north of 57N. Seas
3 to 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

309 
FZAK62 PAFC 100010
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
310 PM AKST Sun Feb 9 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-101400-
310 PM AKST Sun Feb 9 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 960 mb low at 48N 166E moves to 51N 166E at 956 mb Mon morning 
then shifts to 52N 171E at 972 mb Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-101400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
310 PM AKST Sun Feb 9 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.MON...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ412-101400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
310 PM AKST Sun Feb 9 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ413-101400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
310 PM AKST Sun Feb 9 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-101400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
310 PM AKST Sun Feb 9 2020

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Snow.
.TUE...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

528 
FZAK62 PAFC 101231
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
331 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-110200-
331 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 955 mb low at 51N 168E Mon morning moves to 53N 172E at 972 mb 
Tue afternoon. Its front pushes over the Aleutians into the 
Bering. 

$$

PKZ411-110200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
331 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft. Snow and rain 
showers.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ412-110200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
331 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-110200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
331 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Freezing spray.
Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. Rain showers and
snow.
.TUE...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-110200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
331 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
534 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The main weather focus is a hurricane-force 963 mb low north of
Nikolski. This feature is currently at peak intensity but is
beginning to show signs of a transition to an occluded system as
colder and drier air wraps in and the upper-level low catches up
with the surface low. This is evident in the significant dry slot
developing across the AKPEN overnight and wrapping back into the
center of circulation along the occluded front. That said, this
is still quite a powerful storm system with 60 kt sustained winds
wrapping underneath the low and hurricane-force wind gusts, as
indicated on the latest ASCAT pass and surface observations from
Nikolski and Akun, respectively. An occluded front sweeping toward
the Southwest Alaska coast and bending back across the Pribilofs
to the center of the low is bringing snow and gusty easterly winds
across interior Bristol Bay, rain with southerly winds along the
immediate Bristol Bay coast, and blizzard conditions with wind
gusts in excess of 60 mph for the Pribilof Islands. Blizzard
conditions with wind chills of 30 to 50 below zero are also
occurring across the Kuskokwim Delta, mainly west of Bethel, due
in part to the arctic airmass in place and strong northeasterly
winds out ahead of the front. Over the AKPEN and eastern
Aleutians, southerly winds are increasing above 40 kts as the low
approaches from the west. Elsewhere out west, a front extends
across the western Aleutians with easterly gales and a mix of rain
and snow.

For Southcentral, a warm front associated with the aforementioned
low is lifting north across southern Cook Inlet this morning with
areas of mixed rain and snow from Kenai south. Southeasterly gap
winds, specifically through Turnagain Arm, are also increasing
ahead of this front as the pressure gradient the low a ridge
across the northern Gulf coast tightens. This has prompted
issuance of a High Wind Warning for Turnagain Arm and higher
elevations through the morning hours. Kodiak Island currently sits
south of the warm front, in the warm sector out ahead of the cold
front moving into the western Gulf. Light snow has also developed
overnight across the northern Susitna Valley as a moist,
southerly flow is overrunning the colder air at the surface.
Scattered rain and snow showers across portions of Prince William
Sound and the Copper River Delta are giving way to the larger
precipitation shield ahead of the front as seen on by the
Middleton Island radar.

Numerous advisories and warnings have been issued across the
Southern Mainland and Bering/Aleutians covering various weather
hazards associated with this storm system. Please see the forecast
discussions and Watches/Warning/Advisory list further down this
page for specific details.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model agreement in the short term remains consistent with all
models continuing to handle the evolution of the upper-level low
as it moves over Bristol Bay today and lifts north, phasing with a
second low near the Seward Peninsula. As for the surface low
currently north of Nikolski, guidance has been faster with the
timing of the system as it lifts onshore this afternoon. The 00z
EC was the fastest, with the NAM and GFS slower, and the GEM
slowest. However, the 06z NAM sped up its timing with the 06z GFS
following suit, closely matching the EC. In addition, guidance is
in generally good agreement with a second storm-force Pacific low
and associated front moving across the Aleutians, although there
are differences in strength and timing. Thus, forecast confidence
is average through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected through late morning. Low level
wind shear is a concern through the first half of the morning as
a strong southeasterly low-level jet will provide significantly
higher winds at 2,000ft than at the surface. Through the morning,
the surface southeasterly Turnagain Arm wind will increase and
bend over the airport complex ahead of a frontal system. As the
front pushes over Anchorage late morning, the southeasterly winds
will increase with gusts to 40 kts over the aerodrome. This will
potentially negate any speed shear concerns; however, MVFR
ceilings and visibilities are expected as some precipitation moves
through. Directional low-level wind shear is then expected this
afternoon as gusty southeasterly surface winds continue but winds
just above the surface turn southwesterly behind the front. Gusty
southerly winds with VFR conditions are then expected to persist
through the remainder of the TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Fairly unsettled weather is expected across Southcentral over
the next 24 hours. The culprits, a warm occluded front moving
rapidly northeast across Southcentral today and the trailing
hurricane force low moving onto the Southwest Mainland. The front
spreads rain and snow across the coastal areas to as far north as
the Matanuska Valley and southern Susitna Valley today. Moist
southerly flow will sets up in the low to mid levels today which
will produce widespread snow to much of the Susitna Valley and
Talkeetna Mountains(including Hatchers Pass). The Susitna Valley
north of Talkeetna is expected to get 10 to 20 inches of snow
before it tapers off Sunday. Areas along the Talkeetna Mountains
and Hatcher Pass could see 2 ft or more. Broad southwesterly flow
continues aloft through Sunday, so upslope areas along the
mountains across Southcentral could see some continued snow
shower actively.

In addition to precipitation, many marine and land areas will
experience fairly gusty winds. East to west pressure gradients
will peak this morning across Turnagain Arm just prior to frontal
passage and produce a short period of warning level southeasterly
winds this morning. As the Turnagain winds weaken, Gusty
southerly winds will spread across Anchorage Bowl. There will also
be fairly gusty gap flows out of the Knik River Valley and along
the Copper River. Winds region wide will slowly diminish overnight
and through Sunday. Temperatures in windy areas will tend to be
on the mild side, but will cool off as winds drop and cooler air
spreads back in from the west tonight and Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A powerful storm over the Bering will keep gusty winds, snow and
rain challenges in the forecast through early Sunday. The leading
front associated with this system stalls through today keeping
ongoing snow development over the Kuskokwim Delta and western
areas of Bristol Bay. Strong easterly flow just off the surface
will cause downslope drying across the western Alaska and
Aleutian Ranges. Precipitation is expected to become widespread
across the southwest late this afternoon or early evening as the
storm system over the Bering begins to advance northeast.
Downsloped areas today will see snow spread across from east to
west tonight as flow aloft becomes southerly. Locations along the
Aleutian and Alaska Ranges may see much higher snow amounts than
currently forecast and should check back for the updated forecast
this afternoon as models are starting to show higher snow amounts.
Public products were updated this morning with an extension for
the blizzard warning across the Kuskokwim Delta which also
provides added details. The winter advisories for the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley and Bristol Bay were kept intact. Weather conditions are
expected to improve on Sunday as the storm system weakens on a
northeasterly track across the interior. Cold air advects across
the Southwest with clearing skies and light northerly flow Sunday
night into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The strong storm over the southern Bering will begin to track
northeast during the afternoon. Gusty winds were increased across
the Alaska Peninsula area north into the eastern Bering. Hurricane
force winds were added to marine areas for today on the north and
south side of the Alaska Peninsula. Seas are expected to rapidly
build in response with the highest heights ranging between 25 to
50 ft. The high wind warnings were updated to reflect slightly
higher speeds and the warning for the eastern Aleutians was
adjusted to end the product a little sooner. The storm is expected
to move inland overnight with a short reprieve in the weather for
much of the Bering on Sunday. The exception to this will be
across the Western Aleutians as the next front moves up from the
North Pacific with the boundary moving to Shemya by mid morning.
Precipitation may start as snow, however it should change over to
rain by early afternoon. Storm force easterly winds are expected
with this storm which moves to the western Bering Sunday
afternoon. There is still some model uncertainty on the strength
of this storm and may need some adjustments.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)...

A high end gale force storm will move through the central and
western Aleutians into the western Bering from late Sunday into
Tuesday. Storm force winds are possible along the frontal
boundaries. There is still considerable uncertainty for the timing
and strength of this system.

For the Gulf, Northwest gale force winds will increase across the
Barren Islands starting Monday afternoon and will continue through
Tuesday. Winds and seas should abate Wednesday and beyond.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Monday through
Friday)...

We start the long term period Sunday with high pressure over the
western part of the state, high pressure south of the Gulf of
Alaska and another storm on tap moving toward the Aleutians and
Bering Sea. Models are in generally good agreement with the
location of the low moving into the Aleutians and the frontal
placement on Monday. However, they differ significantly with the
intensity of this storm. The front is then expected to slowly
track east across the bering and Aleutians through the middle of
the week, before dissipating as it crosses the southwest mainland
Thursday.

This pattern and scenario support the Arctic air pushing back
across the southern mainland, persisting through Thursday, thus
returning the mainland to the colder air, similar to the past few
weeks. The Bering Sea and Aleutians will be in a highly active
weather pattern, with frequent periods of strong winds and
precipitation through the extended period.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 155 195.
	     High Wind Warning 181 185.
         Winter Weather Advisory 145 152 161.
         High Surf Advisory 161.
MARINE...Hurricane Force Wind Warning 155 165 170 172 174.
         Storm Warning 138 150 160 171 179 180 181 412 414.
         Gale Warning 119 120 125 128 130 131 132 139 140
                      176 177 178 185 351 352 411 413.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 179 180 185 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
MARINE/LONG TERM...SS