Wind Advisory 9, NWS Topeka, KS

776 
WWUS73 KTOP 271620
NPWTOP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1120 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019

KSZ008-009-020-034-272200-
/O.CON.KTOP.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-190427T2200Z/
Republic-Washington-Cloud-Ottawa-
Including the cities of Belleville, Washington, Hanover, Clifton,
Linn, Greenleaf, Concordia, Minneapolis, and Bennington
1120 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...Sustained northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts of
  40 to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Any unsecured outdoor items may become displaced.
  Difficulty driving high profile vehicles will be come likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds from 30 to 39 mph
and/or gusts from 45 to 57 mph are likely. Steps should be taken
to secure any lawn furniture or light weight objects and use
extra caution when driving.

&&

$$

964 
WWUS73 KTOP 272200
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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Topeka KS
500 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019

KSZ008-009-020-034-272300-
/O.EXP.KTOP.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-190427T2200Z/
Republic-Washington-Cloud-Ottawa-
Including the cities of Belleville, Washington, Hanover, Clifton,
Linn, Greenleaf, Concordia, Minneapolis, and Bennington
500 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

Northwest winds will steadily diminish late this afternoon into
this evening, but wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph can still be
expected. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1155 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

As of 20Z Friday afternoon broad northwesterly midlevel flow was
present across the central and northern Plains. A shortwave trough
was located across portions of western MT/eastern ID. Scattered
midlevel clouds in response the approach shortwave continue to
traverse the CWA. At the surface, lee troughing across the high
Plains continues to deepen with the approaching midlevel shortwave
trough. An expansive surface ridge was present across the MO river
valley. A zone of moisture return on the western periphery of the
surface ridge has overspread western KS with dew points in the
middle 40s. This trend should overspread eastern KS as the surface
ridge progresses eastward through the evening. The primary concern
through the short-term period is the potential for showers and
storms late tonight into early Saturday morning. A 50-60 kt LLJ will
increase late this evening, ushering in modified Gulf of Mexico
moisture. The aforementioned shortwave trough is progged to track
across portions of northern NE/southern SD tonight. The combination
of ascent provided by the shortwave trough and isentropic ascent
from the LLJ, should allow for isolated shower/storm development
after 04-05Z this evening. The overall lack of rich moisture will
largely limit precipitation coverage through the night. Although
HRRR/RAP forecast soundings suggest sufficient moisture near 700 mb
combined with modest lapse rates above 700 mb may allow for upwards
of 500-700 J/kg of MUCAPE overnight. The strongest updrafts could
poise a small hail threat with 20-30 kt of speed shear present
within the elevated layer. Although, the very dry low-level
environment will likely evaporate/sublimate a portion of
precipitation and should greatly limit QPF amounts. The strong LLJ
and increasing surface pressure gradient with the deepening surface
trough should allow for the boundary layer to remain coupled through
much of the night. As a result, anticipate southerly winds to
increase to 10-20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH. Furthermore, a mild
night is expected with lows only reaching the middle 50s.

The aforementioned surface trough is progged to traverse the CWA
during the morning hours tomorrow. CAA behind the front should
result in a non-diurnal temperature trend through the day, with the
warmest portion of the day in the morning. Afternoon temperatures
are likely to range from the 50s along the NE border to the 60s
south of I-70. In addition, strong northwestelry winds are expected
with sustained speeds 20-30 MPH, gusting 35-40 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

Transitioning into the extended period, a cold night is expected
Saturday night as clear skies and decreasing winds yield overnight
lows in the middle to upper 30s. As a result, some frost is
possible by sunrise Sunday morning, especially for areas north of
I-70.

Our attention this turns westward towards an approaching
midlevel low, projected to traverse the northern Plains Sunday
into Monday. Lee cyclogenesis is progged to deepen through the
day Sunday, lifting a warm front northward through the evening,
stalling across portions of central and east-central KS. This
frontal zone will be the focal point for thunderstorms Sunday
night. Steep midlevel lapse rates are progged to overspread the
central Plains ahead of the midlevel low. Strong WAA near 850 mb
will provide sufficient moisture for 800-1000 J/kg to be realized
across the southern half of the area. In addition, 30-35 kts of
speed shear within the elevated layer could poise a large hail
threat. Furthermore, deterministic and ensemble guidance are in
good agreement with a swath of 1-2 inches of rainfall along the
warm front Sunday night/Monday morning. As a result, there is the
potential for some localized flash-flooding and river rises. The
aforementioned front will progress southward into portions of
northern AR/eastern OK Monday as the midlevel low pushes
northeastward.

Broad southwesterly flow will setup across the Plains ahead of
the next midlevel low across the southwestern US. Another round of
shower and thunderstorm activity, aided by isentropic ascent
north of the stalled boundary, is possible late Monday into
Tuesday morning. Sufficient speed shear is likely to remain in
place for the potential for a few severe thunderstorms capable of
large hail. A more potent shortwave trough is progged to eject
into the southern/central Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday.
GFS/ECMWF solutions suggest the surface boundary will retreat
northward, possibly into portions of east- central KS Tuesday
afternoon. The biggest question is as height falls overspread the
Plains through the day Tuesday will elevated convection persist
along the front through the day, limiting solar insolation and
overall instability. These finer scale details will need to be
monitored over the next few days. The biggest concern may be
additional heavy rainfall, further increasing the threat for
flooding and flash flooding. Additional shower and thunderstorm
activity is possible Wednesday night into Thursday as a secondary
midlevel trough ejects across the central and northern Plains.
This feature will shunt the surface boundary well-south of the
area, allowing for drier conditions to return by weeks-end next
week.

Temperatures will remain relatively cool through the week with
periods of shower and storm activity. Daytime highs are likely to
remain in the 60s and 70s with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Southerly winds will increase overnight as the pressure gradient
tightens over the area. Despite these breezy winds, anticipate
LLWS concerns through Saturday morning as a strong 45-55kt LLJ
tracks over the area. There is the potential for some scattered
showers and possibly some isolated thunderstorms, to develop near
the TAF sites overnight with the passage of a cold front.
However, confidence in the coverage and location of any
precipitation remains too low to warrant a prevailing
precipitation mention in the TAFs at this time. Winds will veer to
the northwest through the day with persistent gusts of 25-35kts
expected through the day before diminishing by Saturday evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baerg
LONG TERM...Baerg
AVIATION...Hennecke

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
402 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-272115-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
402 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible after midnight across the
entire outlook area. Severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Areas of frost are possible Sunday morning, primarily in low
lying areas and locations north of Interstate 70.

There is increasing potential for widespread heavy rainfall across
the area Sunday night through Wednesday which may result in
localized flash flooding and river rises.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep