Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2019
Mesoscale Discussion 921
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 1, 2019, 2:28 PM EDT for 9 counties in New York; 8 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 1, 2019, 2:28 PM EDT (18:28 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 1, 2019, 4:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Wyoming County, NY, Crawford County, PA, Elk County, PA, Erie County, PA, Forest County, PA, McKean County, PA, Potter County, PA, Venango County, PA, Warren County, PA
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 18 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -192 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1306 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 28 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 212 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 222 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
862
ACUS11 KWNS 011828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011828
NYZ000-PAZ000-012030-
Mesoscale Discussion 0921
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2019
Areas affected...Western New York...northwest Pennsylvania
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 011828Z - 012030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few damaging wind gusts will be possible with storms
that develop/move into the discussion area. Marginally severe hail
may also occur with any stronger storms. A WW is not expected, but
convective trends will be monitored.
DISCUSSION...A few storms have initiated along/near a weak surface
boundary in far southwestern New York in the last 30 minutes.
Furthermore, activity now moving across central Lake Erie is
expected to impact far western New York and northwest Pennsylvania
in the next hour or so. Surface temperatures have risen to the low
to mid 70s F with dewpoints in the upper 50s F to lower 60s F
allowing for modest buoyancy of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Though
low-level flow is weak, per regional VAD profiles, fairly steep
low-level lapse rates will allow a few water-loaded downdrafts to
generate a damaging wind gusts. Mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km
will also support a marginal severe hail threat, though modest
deep-layer shear and storm mode will limit this threat. A WW is not
currently anticipated given the marginal nature of the threat,
though trends will continue to be monitored for increases in
intensity/coverage.
..Wendt/Hart.. 06/01/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 41838034 42118067 42668060 43067930 43107734 42177710
41407837 41367972 41838034SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1, 4:02 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Crawford, Erie | 6 hr |
| Jun 1, 5:53 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Bradford, Butler, Cameron, Centre, Clarion and 21 more | 97 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2019Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2019Every mesoscale discussion in 2019
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.