Mesoscale Discussion 1237

Issued

Jun 24, 2019, 5:24 PM CDT (22:24 UTC)

Expired

Jun 24, 2019, 6:30 PM CDT

In force

66 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

20%

The Corpus Christi radar (KCRP), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

509 
ACUS11 KWNS 242224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242224 
TXZ000-242330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Areas affected...South Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 242224Z - 242330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will persist across south Texas
at least through sunset.  A WW issuance is not anticipated for this
activity.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms persist from just east of San
Antonio southward to near the Rio Grande north of Brownsville.  Most
of the storms are sub-severe/elevated owing to an expansive cold
pool/outflow extending from near Del Rio southeastward to north of
Brownsville.  This outflow boundary intersects a mature supercell in
Kenedy County and extends eastward into the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico.  

The greatest severe threat in the next few hours will exist with
this mature supercell as it tracks southward toward the Rio Grande
River.  The accelerated motion associated with the cell is
augmenting an otherwise weakly sheared environment and resulting in
100-150 m2/s2 0-3 km storm relative helicity.  This motion amidst a
moist, strongly unstable environment will contribute to a threat for
severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado.

The overall threat will remain too isolated to necessitate a WW
issuance.

..Cook.. 06/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   29559779 29549867 29139996 28420013 27679973 26779930
            26039849 25839753 26049716 26689724 27449734 27959723
            28539740 28939739 29239739 29419743 29559779

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2019Every mesoscale discussion in 2019

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.