High Wind Warning 2, NWS Seattle, WA

515 
WWUS76 KSEW 031013
NPWSEW

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
213 AM PST Sun Feb 3 2019

WAZ001-503-506-040000-
/O.CON.KSEW.HW.W.0002.190204T0300Z-190205T1200Z/
San Juan County-Western Whatcom County-Western Skagit County-
213 AM PST Sun Feb 3 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM PST TUESDAY...

* WIND...Northeast winds 25 to 45 mph with gusts to 50 to 55 mph.

* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS...Bellingham, Anacortes, Friday 
  Harbor, Sandy Point Shores, and Lummi Island. 

* TIMING...Very windy conditions will develop this evening and 
  continue through Monday night. 

* IMPACTS...Winds may be strong enough to cause tree damage and 
  local power outages. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/seattle

489 
WWUS76 KSEW 032345
NPWSEW

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
345 PM PST Sun Feb 3 2019

WAZ001-503-506-041230-
/O.CON.KSEW.HW.W.0002.190204T0300Z-190205T1200Z/
San Juan County-Western Whatcom County-Western Skagit County-
345 PM PST Sun Feb 3 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM PST TUESDAY...

* WIND...Northeast winds 25 to 45 mph with gusts to 50 to 55 mph.

* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS...Bellingham, Anacortes, Friday 
  Harbor, Sandy Point Shores, and Lummi Island. 

* TIMING...Very windy conditions will develop this evening and 
  continue through Monday night. 

* IMPACTS...Winds may be strong enough to cause tree damage and 
  local power outages. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/seattle

080 
WWUS76 KSEW 041012
NPWSEW

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
212 AM PST Mon Feb 4 2019

WAZ001-503-506-050000-
/O.EXT.KSEW.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190205T0000Z/
San Juan County-Western Whatcom County-Western Skagit County-
212 AM PST Mon Feb 4 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WIND...Northeast winds 25 to 45 mph with gusts to 50 to 55 mph.

* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS...Bellingham, Anacortes, Friday 
  Harbor, Sandy Point Shores, and Lummi Island. 

* TIMING...Very windy conditions will continue today, then ease
  tonight.
  

* IMPACTS...Winds may be strong enough to cause tree damage and 
  local power outages. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/seattle

033 
WWUS76 KSEW 042237
NPWSEW

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
237 PM PST Mon Feb 4 2019

WAZ001-503-051200-
/O.CAN.KSEW.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190205T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KSEW.WI.Y.0007.190204T2237Z-190205T1200Z/
San Juan County-Western Whatcom County-
237 PM PST Mon Feb 4 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect until 4 AM PST Tuesday. The High
Wind Warning has been cancelled. 

* WIND...Northeast winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS...Bellingham, Anacortes, Friday 
  Harbor, Sandy Point Shores, and Lummi Island. 

* TIMING...Windy conditions will continue tonight, then gradually
  ease on Tuesday.
 
* IMPACTS...Winds may be strong enough to cause tree damage and 
  local power outages. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

WAZ506-042345-
/O.CAN.KSEW.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190205T0000Z/
Western Skagit County-
237 PM PST Mon Feb 4 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Seattle has cancelled the High
Wind Warning. 

Winds have eased below warning criteria.

$$

www.weather.gov/seattle

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1004 AM PST Sat Feb 2 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Convergence zone over North Interior dissipating this
afternoon. A brief break in the action tonight into Sunday
morning. Cold air will begin spilling out of British Columbia
over the area Sunday afternoon while an upper level low moves off
the coast. This combination will give the area at least a chance
of snow showers beginning in Whatcom county Sunday afternoon with
the snow shower threat spreading south Sunday night into Monday
morning. Dry but cool weather Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...Satellite imagery shows some
good breaks in the cloud cover over Western Washington this
morning. Convergence zone producing showers over Western Skagit
and Northwest Snohomish county. Temperatures at 9 am were in the
upper 30s and mid 40s.

Convergence zone dissipating this afternoon. For the remainder of
the area the cloud cover trend will continue with partly sunny
skies this afternoon. Highs today in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Not much going on tonight with Western Washington in between
weather systems. Under partly to mostly cloudy skies lows Sunday
morning will be in the 30s.

Main weather story for the area is the potential snow event coming
up for Sunday into Monday morning. Models have been having a hard
time latching on to a solution for this scenario and the 12z
models are no exception to this idea. The general plan is there
will be a chance of snow on the leading edge of the cold air
spilling out of British Columbia and in a possible deformation
zone Sunday evening into Monday morning. Scattered showers
rotating around the low embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft
will move over the area during the day on Sunday but the air mass
will be too warm for snow at that point with the exception of
possibly Whatcom county in the afternoon. The timing of when and
how far south the cold air boundary goes is still up in the air.
Deformation zones are always hard to pin down with much lead time.
Would love to put more precision in this forecast right now but
the truth of the matter is at this point there are too many
uncertain variables that will change between now and Sunday
evening to make much more than a general forecast. The most
likely scenario remains up to an inch of snow for the Puget Sound
lowlands and along the coast with higher amounts ( another inch or
two ) in the Northwest Interior and along the north slopes of the
Olympics Sunday evening into Monday morning even if this scenario
does not completely agree with the 12z model solutions. Hopefully
there will be more clarity in the model runs later today.

The other variable in this scenario is the wind. A high wind watch
is in effect for Western Whatcom, Western skagit and San Juan
counties from Sunday evening through late Monday night. Confidence
is the highest in this variable in the forecast. Will likely
update the watch to warning in the afternoon or evening forecast
packages.

Upper level low off the coast moving south on Monday which will
pull the moisture away from the area leaving Western Washington
dry and cool for Monday night.

Will leave the current forecast unchanged other than some
adjustments to the wind today through Sunday morning. Felton

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...12z GFS solution much
different than the 00z run beyond Wednesday. Concentrating on the
short term forecast this morning. Will wait for ECMWF to come in.
For now with the GFS solution there is a good chance there will
be changes to the extended forecast.

Previous discussion...extended models continue to be in good
agreement for Tuesday into Wednesday as dry northerly flow aloft
settles in. This will weaken northeasterly outflow winds Tuesday
as dry weather returns. Should see the return of some sunshine as
well. Afternoon highs will be in the mid 30s to low 40s on Tuesday
and will warm a few degrees for Wednesday with ridging in place.

Past Wednesday, model differences still apparent with next
system. ECMWF remains faster and further west offshore while GFS
is a bit slower and hugs the coastline more as low drops south
into Oregon. Obviously, track and strength differences can have
large implications on tangible forecast. With cold air still in
place and reinforcing shot from the north, could potentially see
another chance for low snow levels. It's far too early to
speculate on any of these details but is certainly something to
keep an eye on going forward. CEO

&&

.AVIATION...Westerly flow aloft with broad upper trough to our
north. The air mass remains rather moist and stable. Weak flow at
the surface will become light northerly this afternoon. A
wide variety of conditions across the area this morning
with areas of IFR, MVFR, and VFR. MVFR is the expected
predominant condition through midday with periods of VFR possible
later in the afternoon. Ceilings are expected to lower again tonight
as another upper trough digs southward toward the area.

KSEA...Expecting low-end MVFR to occasional IFR conditions to
persist until about 18Z, then remain MVFR this afternoon and
tonight. Surface winds light and variable becoming northerly under
10 knots this afternoon.   27

&&

.MARINE...Westerly winds will give small craft advisory conditions
to the coast today. Northerly winds will develop over the
northern inland waters today and rise to advisory levels at times.
Seas over the coast will be near 10 feet.

Northeasterly flow will develop over most of the waters by Sunday
and will continue into early next week, with peak northeasterly flow
on Monday. Gales are forecast over the northern inland waters and a
gale watch is in effect. The rest of the waters will have small
craft advisory strength winds. Fraser outflow will ease Tuesday and
Wednesday. CHB/27

&&

.HYDROLOGY...River flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...High Wind Watch from Sunday evening through late Monday night
     for San Juan County-Western Skagit County-Western Whatcom
     County.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10
     To 60 Nm-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
     Islands.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out
     10 Nm.

     Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Monday night for
     Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

&&

www.weather.gov/seattle