Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Pueblo, CO

801 
WWUS85 KPUB 172102
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
302 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019

...A Red Flag Warning for gusty winds, low humidity and dry fuels
remains in effect until 8PM today, for fire weather zones 
220, 222 and 224, which includes the San Luis Valley, upper 
Arkansas River Valley and Fremont County...

COZ220-222-224-180200-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190818T0200Z/
Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee
County-Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
302 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...222 AND 224...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 220...222 and 224.

* Winds...West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 11 percent.

* Impacts... Conditions will be favorable for the rapid 
  ignition, growth, and spread of fires.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

769 
WWUS85 KPUB 180152
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
752 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019

...Red Flag Warning will expire at 8 PM MDT...

COZ220-222-224-180300-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190818T0200Z/
Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee
County-Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
752 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 220...222 AND 224...

Wind speeds are decreasing and humidities are increasing this 
evening across the area. Therefore, the warning will be allowed to
expire.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1120 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019

Updated grid and zone forecasts to cancel Severe Thunderstorm
Watch for Kiowa county and also to refresh meteorological grids.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019

Slightly more convection than yesterday developing over the
higher terrain this afternoon as upper forcing is stronger with
wave moving by to the north. However, sparse low level moisture
over the mountains, valleys and I-25 corridor will produce mainly
high based/windy storms, with only light precipitation. Deep
instability lies along and east of a line from just east of
Colorado Springs to east of Pueblo to near Clayton NM as of 21z,
with CAPE in the 1000-3000 J/KG range as dewpoints have held in
the lower 60s near the KS border. As better forcing moves over
this area late this afternoon into this evening, expect at least
sct strong/severe storms to develop, with HRRR depiction of rather
isolated but intense convection across Kiowa/Bent/Prowers
counties looking reasonable. SWOMCD already out for this area,
with severe watch from Kiowa county northward just issued.
Storms then shift east into KS by midnight, with convective
outflow potentially pushing some lower clouds and fog back into
the ern plains by early Sat morning. On Sat, low level moisture
mixes out all the way to the KS border in the afternoon, leaving
just a very low risk of a weak storm near the Palmer Divide by
late in the day. Max temps look to creep upward a degf or two as
air mass dries out.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019

Sunday and Monday look dry/hot as upper ridge builds slowly
over the southern Rockies. Models suggest air mass will by dry
enough to preclude convection over the entire area Sunday, with
only some very isolated/weak storms back toward the San Juans on
Mon. Much of the area should see their hottest temps of the next
several days on Mon, and most of the southeast plains east of
I-25 will reach the 100f mark. Moisture begins to return to the
region on Tue, with weak frontal boundary on the plains Tue
evening aiding in thunderstorm formation as well. Wed may end up
being the wettest day with weak upslope and mid-level moisture in
place, then rain chances gradually decrease toward the end of the
week as mid level flow takes on a more wly component. Temps will
remain rather hot on Tue, before sinking back toward seasonal
averages from Wed onward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019

Developing drier zonal upper flow in combination with upper
ridging building to the south of Colorado will allow VFR
conditions to be noted over the KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf sites
during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1159 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019

COZ058>089-093>099-180600-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1159 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

On Saturday, isolated late afternoon and evening thunderstorms are
expected over the plains, and a strong to severe storm may be
possible across Kiowa County. In addition, near critical fire
weather conditions are possible in the Arkansas River Valley from
Buena Vista to near Pueblo.

After hot and dry weather Sunday and Monday, thunderstorm chances
increase over the mountains Tuesday as some monsoon moisture
returns to Colorado. The amount of moisture could increase
Wednesday and Thursday resulting in better chances for
thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will not be needed tonight.