Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
137 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2019

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...After a morning of scattered
thunderstorms near Idaho Falls, we're beginning to see the
moisture plume matriculate northward towards the central mountains
and into the Montana divide. This is in response to the
approaching deep trough just off the Pac NW coast. It is just
north of the divide where stronger shear and the best synoptic
ascent will reside in the left exit region of the upper jet. While
we cannot rule out some showers and thunderstorms along our
northern mountains, the best coverage and strength should be in
Montana. Outside of this, a thin streak of moisture could spur a
few showers or perhaps a thunderstorm in the Bear Lake area later
this evening. It will be something we'll be watching closely for
marine interests in that area.

The aforementioned trough will then creep towards coastal Oregon
over the next several days. Fueled by increasing moisture, diurnally-
driven showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase through the
end of the week. Thursday and Friday in particular look to be the
best chances of broader shower coverage, but locations will be more
dry than wet through the end of the week.

With little change in airmass ahead of the broad low pressure
system, temperatures will stagnate through Thursday, but will begin
to cool Friday and into the weekend as heights gradually fall.
TAX

.LONG TERM...Friday evening through Tuesday...Windy conditions
are expect Friday evening as a boundary tracks through the region.
Look for an area of low pressure to progress into Canada over the
weekend, allowing for warming temperatures into the 80s with
little to no chance for precipitation. At the moment, the European
solution is trying to develop a new low off of the main low over
Washington on Sunday, which would disrupt the wind pattern and
may bring a shower over the Central Mountains. Will have to keep
watching to see if this trend continues. NP

&&

.AVIATION...No restrictions expected over the next 24-30 hours
for area ports. An increase in moisture will mean that some
showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening, primarily
north along the Montana divide, but these should have little to
no impact on northern ports. Otherwise, decoupling tonight will
lead to calming winds around east and central Idaho. Mixing will
kick back in Wednesday after sunrise, bringing some increase
surface flow, but generally 15kts or less. TAX

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Primary threats will remain warming and drying
conditions this week. Winds are not at critical levels and will
generally only be gusty for a few hours in the afternoon hours. More
widespread windy conditions are forecast for Friday as a boundary
tracks through the area and low pressure begins to progress into
Canada through the weekend. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms are
possible daily, primarily across 476, 411 and northern portions of
410. Also, it is looking like a line of thunderstorms may develop
tomorrow afternoon across 410 and 425 before losing strength in the
evening. Little to no precip is forecast over the weekend. NP

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
824 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2019

IDZ056>059-260345-
Franklin/Eastern Oneida Region ID-Marsh and Arbon Highlands ID-
Raft River Region ID-Southern Hills/Albion Mountains ID-
824 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2019

...LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST UTAH LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO MALTA AND HOLBROOK AREA THROUGH 945 PM MDT...

At 821 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of thunderstorms
located over northwest Utah, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Light to moderate rain, occasional lightning, and wind gusts to 40
mph are possible with these storms as they lift northeast into the
Malta and Holbrook area through 945 PM MDT.

Locations impacted include...
Malad, Swanlake, Juniper, Pleasantview, Cherry Creek Rest Area,
Holbrook Summit, Clifton, Oxford, Stone, Sweetzer Summit, Samaria,
Daniels Reservoir, Holbrook, Malad Pass, Roy and Bridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4199 11364 4221 11347 4240 11274 4231 11180
      4200 11221
TIME...MOT...LOC 0221Z 220DEG 28KT 4171 11295 4173 11354 4164 11386

Huston

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
910 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2019

IDZ054>062-260400-
Eastern Magic Valley ID-Franklin/Eastern Oneida Region ID-
Bear Lake Valley ID-Bear River Range ID-Marsh and Arbon Highlands ID-
Raft River Region ID-Southern Hills/Albion Mountains ID-
Blackfoot Mountains ID-Lower Snake River Plain ID-
910 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO MALTA,
JUNIPER, HOLBROOK, ROCKLAND AND ARIMO THROUGH 1000 PM MDT...

At 905 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
outflow winds along a line extending from 8 miles southeast of
Holbrook Summit to 11 miles northeast of Juniper to 8 miles east of
Almo, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Brief moderate rain and strong wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph are
possible with these storms as they lift northeast toward the
Rockland and Arimo areas through 1000 PM MDT.

Locations impacted include...
Malad, McCammon, Lava Hot Springs, Malta, Swanlake, southern Lake
Walcott, Grace, Downey, Arimo, Rockland, Holbrook Summit, Thatcher,
Cold Water Rest Area, Elba, Pleasantview, Fort Hall Bannock Peak,
Cherry Creek Rest Area, Virginia, Juniper and Oxford.

LAT...LON 4256 11150 4276 11230 4264 11342 4205 11364
      4206 11293 4202 11228
TIME...MOT...LOC 0305Z 217DEG 33KT 4210 11252 4216 11286 4211 11347

Huston