Alert archive / New Jersey / Small Craft Advisories in 2019

Small Craft Advisory 94, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

November 17, 2019

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this small craft advisory at Nov 17, 2019, 11:04 PM EST. It was in force for 37 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 17, 2019, 11:04 PM EST (04:04 UTC)
Expired
Nov 19, 2019, 12:18 PM EST
In force
37 hr
Issued by
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

The text

As transmitted.

401 
WHUS71 KPHI 180404
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1104 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

ANZ431-181100-
/O.CAN.KPHI.GL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-191118T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.191118T0404Z-191118T1100Z/
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
1104 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Small
Craft Advisory, which is in effect until 6 AM EST Monday. The
Gale Warning has been cancelled.

* WINDS AND SEAS...North winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 
  kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ453>455-181200-
/O.CAN.KPHI.GL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-191118T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.191118T0404Z-191119T1900Z/
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
1104 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Small
Craft Advisory, which is in effect until 2 PM EST Tuesday. The
Gale Warning has been cancelled.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 
  kt. Seas 7 to 12 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ450>452-181200-
/O.CAN.KPHI.GL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-191118T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.191118T0404Z-191119T1900Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
1104 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Small
Craft Advisory, which is in effect until 2 PM EST Tuesday. The
Gale Warning has been cancelled.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 
  kt. Seas 8 to 13 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ430-180515-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-191118T1100Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
1104 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has cancelled the
Small Craft Advisory.

Winds and seas for the upper Delaware Bay have dropped below Small
Craft Advisory conditions and will continue to slowly wane.

$$
5 follow-up statements
977 
WHUS71 KPHI 180919
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
419 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

ANZ431-181100-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-191118T1100Z/
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
419 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...North winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 
  kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ453>455-182230-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-191119T1900Z/
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
419 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ450>452-182230-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-191119T1900Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
419 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

CMS
882 
WHUS71 KPHI 181054
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
554 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

ANZ431-181200-
/O.EXP.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-191118T1100Z/
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
554 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

Winds have diminished below advisory criteria. Therefore, the
small craft advisory will be allowed to expire.

$$

ANZ453>455-190000-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-191119T1900Z/
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
554 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ450>452-190000-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-191119T1900Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
554 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

CMS
742 
WHUS71 KPHI 182322
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
622 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2019



ANZ453>455-191230-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-191119T1900Z/
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
622 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ450>452-191230-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-191119T1900Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
622 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
687 
WHUS71 KPHI 191148
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
648 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2019

ANZ453>455-191900-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-191119T1900Z/
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
648 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ450>452-191900-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-191119T1900Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
648 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
170 
WHUS71 KPHI 191718
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1218 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2019

ANZ450>455-191830-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-191119T1900Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
1218 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has cancelled the
Small Craft Advisory.

The seas continue to subside and therefore this advisory has been
cancelled. A new Small Craft Advisory may be needed starting
Wednesday afternoon.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Nov 17, 9:23 PM EST, 1 hour 41 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 17, 9:23 PM EST, 1 hour 41 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
923 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low will migrate from off the Carolina coast
northeastward tonight as high pressure exits the Northeast. The
low will begin to accelerate Monday, reaching the Canadian
Maritimes by Tuesday. A weak wave of low pressure will cross the
region Wednesday before moving offshore Thursday as a ridge of
high pressure builds into the region. Another area of low pressure
and cold front are likely to move through the region by the end
of the week.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
920 PM Update...Precip at this hour still remains spotty and
mostly confined to areas near the coast. However there were some
flurries reported earlier this evening at Mount Pocono and also
in NW NJ. So still think mostly light, spotty precip will tend
to increase from east to west through tonight but that it won't
amount to much. Only change with the forecast was to raise
temperatures slightly through tonight and this also resulted in
some minor changes to the weather grids for areas near freezing.
Overall though, not a significant change so no real change to
the Winter Weather Advisory that remains in effect.

Previous Discussion...At the surface, high pressure to our
northeast is moving into the Canadian Maritimes while a coastal
low offshore of the Carolinas is slowly making its way north-
northeastward. Lower clouds associated with this system have
overspread the area today and some light drizzle has been
observed along the NJ and southern DE coasts. This drizzle may
transition to light rain along the NJ coast this evening as weak
isentropic lift occurs on the northern flank of the approaching
low. Generally expect that overnight precipitation amounts will
range from nothing measurable (particularly inland locations)
to a few hundredths near the coast.

There will be the potential for some freezing drizzle- light
freezing rain tonight into Monday morning over the Poconos and NW
NJ. Due to the low QPF and shallow precipitation growth zone, any
ice accumulations in this area are expected to be quite light
(anywhere from a glaze to a few hundredths), but even this very
small amount could cause problems on untreated surfaces.
Consequently going Winter Weather Advisory covers this potential. It
is also possible that precipitation does not reach this far inland
until late enough Monday morning that temperatures will have warmed
above freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The surface low will begin to accelerate northward tomorrow in
response to an approaching mid-lvl trough, and the low should be
more or less parallel to the area by late-morning/early afternoon.
Low clouds should remain entrenched over the area during the day,
and periods of light rain are likely. In general the PoP & QPF
forecast remains uncertain as although there will be several sources
of lift, these for the most part will be weak (at least during the
day on Monday). First we will have the potential for continued wrap-
around precipitation over primarily northern portions of the area,
while further south lift will begin to increase Monday afternoon in
response to the approaching mid-lvl vort/ speed max. Additionally
the GFS and to some extent the HRW suite want to develop a low-lvl
reflection and associated confluence zone ahead of the mid-lvl wave
Monday afternoon which would result in a more focused zone of
precipitation (the EC is slower progressing this feature northward,
while the NAM is weakest).

Kept high temperatures similar to the previous forecast (e.g. on the
lower side of guidance) as persistent cloud cover and periods of
precipitation should not allow us to efficiently mix down the warmer
airmass aloft. Consequently expect low to mid 40s for most of the
area, with some upper 30s in the far north. If the precipitation is
more spotty than currently forecast, could see some locations in
southern NJ and Delmarva reach the upper 40s to even lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A quite progressive pattern takes shape for the remainder of the
week and into next weekend with several vorticity maxima ejecting
out of the Canadian Rockies into the eastern U.S. and a pair or
short wave troughs likely to traverse the CONUS through next
weekend.

The 12Z model runs continue to suggest a potent shortwave trough
will cross the Great Lakes within the polar jet, increasing negative
tilt as it does so. As the ocean/coastal storm accelerates off to
the northeast out of the mid-Atlantic, precipitation looks to
quickly fill in on the lee side of the Alleghenies into our
region as the vort max approaches the region. This looks to
enhance upward forcing, with a likely substantial, though
somewhat narrow band of precipitation forming in a southeast to
northwest orientation. An investigation into model soundings
suggests an accumulating snow is becoming more likely in the
Poconos. Totals of course will be highly dependent on where this
precipitation forms and its intensity. There is the potential
for some stronger snow rates, so the forecast snowfall totals
here may end up being a little low. Wouldn't be surprised if
they end up increasing slightly with the following forecast. The
NAM Nest is perhaps the most vigorous with the snowfall,
suggesting a few hours with rates of 1 in/hr may occur, yielding
2-4 inches across the Pocono Plateau. Other guidance hasn't
quite bought on yet, with the GFS and Canadian solutions showing
only a slushy accumulation under an inch. This may be underdone
if the changeover occurs early enough Monday night with high
enough rates.

Irregardless, precipitation looks to start as rain Monday night,
changing over to a mix of rain, snow, and sleet, and eventually over
to all snow across the southern Poconos as precipitation rates
increase and the atmospheric column cools. This may extend into
Sussex County, NJ, though snowfall totals would be less than an inch
at most. As of now, snowfall totals look to range from a little
over an inch across the Pocono Plateau to a couple tenths of an
inch from NW New Jersey and perhaps a dusting into the northern
portion of the Lehigh Valley. Elsewhere, temperatures look to
be too warm to preclude any snowfall accumulation with lows
Monday night in the low to mid 30s.

Tuesday afternoon through Thursday continues to look fairly quiet,
though a weak perturbation could bring some cloud cover Wednesday,
but moisture looks limited enough that only some snow showers look
to form to our north. Highs should range from the low 40s across the
Poconos and northern New Jersey to the low 50s across Delmarva.

Another system still looks to affect the region late in the week,
though there is less agreement in its overall structure with the GFS
portraying a more positively oriented trough that is less vertically
stacked and the EC showing a more neutrally oriented trough with a
trailing/cut-off low settling over the Four Corner's region. Thus,
the ECMWF pushes the cold front through the mid-Atlantic a little
faster with clearing occuring by Friday night, yet the GFS still
positions the cold front to our west at this time and doesn't take
the front through our region until Saturday morning. Went with a
general chance to slight chance for showers Friday into Saturday
morning until further agreement is made. Highs Friday look to be in
the 40s and 50s then staying in the 40s Saturday behind the front.

The next concern will be what transpires with the Four Corner's low.
The EC develops a stronger surface low that attempts to merge with
the northern stream as a Clipper-type shortwave ejects from Alberta.
This solutions paints more substantial precipitation across the mid-
Atlantic Sunday night into Monday, while the GFS places both
features a quarter to a half wavelength ahead, keeping the merger
over the open Atlantic, rendering mostly dry weather for our region,
save for a few snow showers across the Poconos. This will also be a
feature to watch over the coming days. Either way, highs Sunday will
range from the low 40s to the low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This afternoon/Tonight...Primarily MVFR CIGS will prevail, with IFR
possible at MIV and ACY. Some drizzle or light rain will be possible
particularly at MIV and ACY. Northeasterly winds 10-15 kts, with
gusts 20-25kts before sunset. High confidence.

Monday... Generally low-end MVFR (with potentially periods of IFR)
conditions prevailing with periods of rain possible at all
terminals. Winds shift more northerly then northwesterly in the
afternoon, with speeds generally around 10 kts (and coming down in
the afternoon). High confidence in winds, Moderate confidence in
flight categories.

Outlook...

Monday night...MVFR CIGs eventually turning VFR as rain moves out of
the region. Westerly winds generally from 5 to 10 knots. A few gusts
to 20 knots possible at ACY. Moderate confidence in winds and
CIGs.

Tuesday...generally VFR with westerly winds from 5 to 10 knots.
Moderate confidence overall.

Wednesday...generally VFR with northwesterly winds from 5 to 10
knots and gusts to 15 knots. Wing gusts to 20 knots possible at
ACY. Moderate confidence overall.

Thursday...generally VFR with westerly to southwesterly winds from 5
to 10 knots. Moderate confidence overall.

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight... Northeasterly wind gusts in the 35kt range will
continue into tonight, with gusts likely dipping below gale-force by
early Monday morning.  Seas generally remaining 10-12 ft along the
ocean waters.

Monday...  Northerly wind gusts in the 25-30 kt range, Monday
morning should dip below 25 kts by Monday afternoon and seas will
slowly come down into the 8-10 ft range by Monday afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday night...Westerly winds from 10 to 15 knots and gusts to 20
knots, however, advisory-level seas from 5 to 8 feet will persist
through the night.

Tuesday...sub-SCA conditions expected with westerly winds from 5 to
10 knots. Seas from 4 to 6 feet in the morning will drop to 2 to 4
feet in the afternoon.

Wednesday...sub-SCA conditions in the morning may approach SCA
conditions by the afternoon with northwest winds from 10 to 20 knots
and gusts nearing 25 knots. Seas from 2 to 4 feet.

Thursday...generally sub-SCA conditions expected with southwesterly
winds from 10 to 15 knots turning southwesterly from 10 to 15 knots
with gusts to 20 knots. Seas building from 1 to 3 feet.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flooding is expected to occur for the next two high-tide
cycles, through the day Monday, across coastal sections of New Jersey
and Delaware. The second high tide will be the higher of the two.

Through the night last night and through the day today, models have
trended downward with anomolies and resultant high-tide levels, likely
owing to weaker onshore winds and the fact that the coastal low itself
is still southeast of Cape Hatteras.

Though moderate flooding is still expected to occur on the Atlantic
coast of southern New Jersey and Delaware, it looks like it will be
more spotty along Raritan Bay and the adjacent Atlantic coast of
Monmouth County. Nevertheless, we still think the threat is high enough
here to warrant a continuation of the coastal flood warning for now.
Both Perth Amboy and Sandy Hook are still within a few tenths of a foot
from moderate flooding tomorrow afternoon. We have at least another 12
hours to access both model and observed trends before making
adjustments to headlines.

Bottom line...widespread minor tidal flooding is expected up and down
the New Jersey and Delaware coasts, and at the moment, the threat of a
more widespread moderate event lies south of Barnegat Bay.

The Coastal FLood Advisory still looks good for the upper portion of
Delaware Bay (coastal sections of New Castle and Salem Counties).

We still cannot rule out minor flooding on the tidal Delaware River on
Monday evening and the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay Monday night.

There was some concern that we would see minor flooding across the
tidal Delaware river and portions of the Eastern Shore of Maryland
tonight. With the lower anomolies, that is no longer expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for PAZ054-055.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for NJZ001-007-
     008.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EST Monday for NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for NJZ016.
DE...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EST Monday for DEZ002>004.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ431-450>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ430.

&&

Synopsis...Davis
Near Term...Carr/Fitzsimmons
Short Term...Carr
Long Term...Davis
Aviation...Carr/Davis
Marine...Carr/Davis
Tides/Coastal Flooding...
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 17, 3:49 PM EST, 7 hours 15 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
349 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-182100-
Sussex-Carbon-Monroe-
349 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM
EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-015-017>019-PAZ060>062-070-071-
101>106-182100-
Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Hunterdon-Somerset-Mercer-
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
349 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Maryland, central
New Jersey, northern New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New
Jersey, east central Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ007-008-182100-
Warren-Morris-
349 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM
EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ001-NJZ016-182100-
New Castle-Salem-
349 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Delaware and
southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ002>004-NJZ012>014-020>027-182100-
Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-
349 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, southern
Delaware, central New Jersey, northern New Jersey and southern New
Jersey.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ431-450>455-182100-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
349 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-182100-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
349 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 18, 4:01 PM ESTCoastal Flood StatementPHIOcean6 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in New Jersey, 2019Every small craft advisory in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.