Alert archive / New Jersey / Coastal Flood Statements in 2019
Coastal Flood Statement 12, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this coastal flood statement at Oct 31, 2019, 1:24 PM EDT for Ocean County, New Jersey; Sussex County, Delaware. It was in force for 20 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 31, 2019, 1:24 PM EDT (17:24 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 1, 2019, 8:58 AM EDT
- In force
- 20 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
Counties Sussex County, DE, Ocean County, NJ
The radar
The Dover AFB radar (KDOX), 75 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Wallops Is Stn, VA (KWAL), launched 12:00Z, 5.4 hours before the alert went out and 158 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 592 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 158 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 150 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
433 WHUS41 KPHI 311724 CFWPHI Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 124 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 NJZ020-026-010600- /O.NEW.KPHI.CF.S.0012.191031T1724Z-191101T0600Z/ Ocean-Coastal Ocean- 124 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 ...MINOR FLOODING ALONG NORTHERN BARNEGAT BAY... * LOCATIONS...Barnegat Bay, to the north of Barnegat Inlet, and its tidal tributaries. * TIMING...A southerly wind will keep water trapped in the northern part of Barnegat Bay until late tonight. * COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to a half foot of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. Minor flooding is expected with some road closures possible. && $$ Iovino
4 follow-up statements
619
WHUS41 KPHI 311908
CFWPHI
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
308 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
NJZ015-017>019-PAZ070-071-106-010000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.CF.Y.0036.191031T1908Z-191101T0000Z/
Mercer-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Delaware-
Philadelphia-Lower Bucks-
308 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Coastal
Flood Advisory, which is in effect until 8:00 PM this evening.
* LOCATIONS...The tidal Delaware River from Trenton to the
Commodore Barry Bridge area, including Philadelphia and Camden.
* TIMING...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to one foot of inundation above
ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and
tidal waterways. Minor flooding is possible along the tidal
Delaware River and its tidal tributaries in the New Jersey
counties of Gloucester, Camden, Burlington and Mercer, and in
the Pennsylvania counties of Delaware, Philadelphia and Bucks.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Coastal Flood Advisory means that minor tidal flooding is
expected. Minor tidal flooding often results in some road
closures. Usually, the most vulnerable roadways will flood.
Do not leave your vehicle at a location that is prone to tidal
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flood waters. The
water may be deeper than you think it is. You will be putting
yourself in danger and your vehicle may be damaged, leading to
costly repairs.
Visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
water.weather.gov/ahps for additional water level and flood impact
information for your local tide gauge.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Delaware River at Burlington
MLLW Categories - Minor 9.3 ft, Moderate 10.3 ft, Major 11.3 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.6 ft, Moderate 2.6 ft, Major 3.6 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
31/06 PM 9.9 2.2 0.8 Minor
01/06 AM 7.4 -0.3 -0.6 None
01/06 PM 7.5 -0.2 -1.2 None
02/07 AM 6.7 -1.0 -1.0 None
02/07 PM 7.8 0.1 -0.6 None
03/07 AM 6.7 -1.0 -0.7 None
Delaware River at Philadelphia
MLLW Categories - Minor 8.2 ft, Moderate 9.2 ft, Major 10.2 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.5 ft, Moderate 2.5 ft, Major 3.5 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
31/05 PM 8.6 1.9 1.4 Minor
01/05 AM 6.5 -0.2 0.2 None
01/06 PM 6.1 -0.6 -0.9 None
02/06 AM 5.3 -1.4 -0.8 None
02/07 PM 6.8 0.1 0.0 None
03/06 AM 5.8 -0.9 -0.1 None
&&
$$
MDZ015-019-020-010400-
/O.NEW.KPHI.CF.Y.0036.191031T2200Z-191101T0400Z/
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
308 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Coastal
Flood Advisory, which is in effect from 6:00 PM this evening until
midnight.
* LOCATIONS...Tidal areas in the counties of Queen Anne's, Talbot
and Caroline.
* TIMING...From 6:00 PM this evening until midnight.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to one half foot of inundation above
ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and
tidal waterways. Minor flooding is possible in and near Church
Hill, Kent Island, Saint Michael's, and other locations near
the bay. Minor flooding is possible along the Choptank River and
other tidal tributaries.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Coastal Flood Advisory means that minor tidal flooding is
expected. Minor tidal flooding often results in some road
closures. Usually, the most vulnerable roadways will flood.
Do not leave your vehicle at a location that is prone to tidal
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flood waters. The
water may be deeper than you think it is. You will be putting
yourself in danger and your vehicle may be damaged, leading to
costly repairs.
Visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
water.weather.gov/ahps for additional water level and flood impact
information for your local tide gauge.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Eastern Bay at Claiborne
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.4 ft, Moderate 4.4 ft, Major 5.4 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.7 ft, Moderate 2.7 ft, Major 3.7 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
31/08 PM 3.8 2.1 2.0 Minor
01/08 PM 1.8 0.1 0.1 None
02/08 AM 1.0 -0.7 0.0 None
02/10 PM 1.8 0.1 0.2 None
03/08 AM 1.1 -0.6 0.1 None
&&
$$
MDZ008-012-010700-
/O.NEW.KPHI.CF.Y.0036.191101T0100Z-191101T0700Z/
Cecil-Kent MD-
308 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3
AM EDT FRIDAY...
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Coastal
Flood Advisory, which is in effect from 9:00 PM this evening until
3:00 AM Friday.
* LOCATIONS...Tidal areas in the counties of Cecil and Kent.
* TIMING...From 9:00 PM this evening until 3:00 AM Friday.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to one foot of inundation above
ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and
tidal waterways. Roadway flooding is possible in Charlestown
along the North East River. Minor flooding is possible in and
near Rock Hall, Skinners Neck, Piney Neck, McKinleyville, Cliffs
City, and Chestertown.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Coastal Flood Advisory means that minor tidal flooding is
expected. Minor tidal flooding often results in some road
closures. Usually, the most vulnerable roadways will flood.
Do not leave your vehicle at a location that is prone to tidal
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flood waters. The
water may be deeper than you think it is. You will be putting
yourself in danger and your vehicle may be damaged, leading to
costly repairs.
Visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
water.weather.gov/ahps for additional water level and flood impact
information for your local tide gauge.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Chesapeake/Delaware Canal at Chesapeake City
MLLW Categories - Minor 5.5 ft, Moderate 6.5 ft, Major 7.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.2 ft, Moderate 3.2 ft, Major 4.2 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
01/01 AM 5.8 2.5 2.5 Minor
01/03 PM 2.6 -0.7 -0.3 None
02/03 AM 2.8 -0.5 -0.4 None
02/03 PM 2.4 -0.9 -0.4 None
03/03 AM 3.1 -0.2 0.0 None
Chesapeake Bay at Tolchester Beach
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.5 ft, Moderate 4.5 ft, Major 5.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.8 ft, Moderate 2.8 ft, Major 3.8 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
31/11 PM 4.0 2.3 1.9 Minor
01/11 PM 1.7 -0.0 -0.2 None
02/11 AM 0.9 -0.8 -0.3 None
03/01 AM 1.8 0.1 0.0 None
&&
$$
NJZ020-026-010700-
/O.EXT.KPHI.CF.S.0012.000000T0000Z-191101T0700Z/
Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
308 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
...MINOR FLOODING ALONG NORTHERN BARNEGAT BAY...
* LOCATIONS...Barnegat Bay, to the north of Barnegat Inlet, and
its tidal tributaries.
* TIMING...A southerly wind will keep water trapped in the
northern part of Barnegat Bay until late tonight.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to a half foot of inundation above
ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and
tidal waterways. Minor flooding is expected with some road
closures possible.
&&
$$
Iovino542
WHUS41 KPHI 312248
CFWPHI
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
648 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
NJZ015-017>019-PAZ070-071-106-010000-
/O.CAN.KPHI.CF.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-191101T0000Z/
Mercer-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Delaware-
Philadelphia-Lower Bucks-
648 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has cancelled the
Coastal Flood Advisory for the tidal Delaware River. No additional
minor flooding is expected.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Delaware River at Burlington
MLLW Categories - Minor 9.3 ft, Moderate 10.3 ft, Major 11.3 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.6 ft, Moderate 2.6 ft, Major 3.6 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
01/06 AM 7.4 -0.3 -0.6 None
01/06 PM 7.5 -0.2 -1.2 None
02/07 AM 6.7 -1.0 -1.0 None
02/07 PM 7.8 0.1 -0.6 None
03/07 AM 6.7 -1.0 -0.7 None
Delaware River at Philadelphia
MLLW Categories - Minor 8.2 ft, Moderate 9.2 ft, Major 10.2 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.5 ft, Moderate 2.5 ft, Major 3.5 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
01/05 AM 6.5 -0.2 0.2 None
01/06 PM 6.1 -0.6 -0.9 None
02/06 AM 5.3 -1.4 -0.8 None
02/07 PM 6.8 0.1 0.0 None
03/06 AM 5.8 -0.9 -0.1 None
&&
$$
MDZ015-019-020-010400-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-191101T0400Z/
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
648 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...
* LOCATIONS...Tidal areas in the counties of Queen Anne's, Talbot
and Caroline.
* TIMING...Until midnight.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to one half foot of inundation above
ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and
tidal waterways. Minor flooding is possible in and near Church
Hill, Kent Island, Saint Michael's, and other locations near
the bay. Minor flooding is possible along the Choptank River and
other tidal tributaries.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Coastal Flood Advisory means that minor tidal flooding is
expected. Minor tidal flooding often results in some road
closures. Usually, the most vulnerable roadways will flood.
Do not leave your vehicle at a location that is prone to tidal
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flood waters. The
water may be deeper than you think it is. You will be putting
yourself in danger and your vehicle may be damaged, leading to
costly repairs.
Visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
water.weather.gov/ahps for additional water level and flood impact
information for your local tide gauge.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Eastern Bay at Claiborne
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.4 ft, Moderate 4.4 ft, Major 5.4 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.7 ft, Moderate 2.7 ft, Major 3.7 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
31/08 PM 3.8 2.1 2.0 Minor
01/08 PM 1.8 0.1 0.1 None
02/08 AM 1.0 -0.7 0.0 None
02/10 PM 1.8 0.1 0.2 None
03/08 AM 1.1 -0.6 0.1 None
&&
$$
MDZ008-012-010700-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0036.191101T0100Z-191101T0700Z/
Cecil-Kent MD-
648 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT
FRIDAY...
* LOCATIONS...Tidal areas in the counties of Cecil and Kent.
* TIMING...From 9:00 PM this evening until 3:00 AM Friday.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to one foot of inundation above
ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and
tidal waterways. Roadway flooding is possible in Charlestown
along the North East River. Minor flooding is possible in and
near Rock Hall, Skinners Neck, Piney Neck, McKinleyville, Cliffs
City, and Chestertown.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Coastal Flood Advisory means that minor tidal flooding is
expected. Minor tidal flooding often results in some road
closures. Usually, the most vulnerable roadways will flood.
Do not leave your vehicle at a location that is prone to tidal
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flood waters. The
water may be deeper than you think it is. You will be putting
yourself in danger and your vehicle may be damaged, leading to
costly repairs.
Visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
water.weather.gov/ahps for additional water level and flood impact
information for your local tide gauge.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Chesapeake/Delaware Canal at Chesapeake City
MLLW Categories - Minor 5.5 ft, Moderate 6.5 ft, Major 7.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.2 ft, Moderate 3.2 ft, Major 4.2 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
31/02 PM 4.8 1.5 1.8 None
01/01 AM 5.8 2.5 2.5 Minor
01/03 PM 2.6 -0.7 -0.3 None
02/03 AM 2.8 -0.5 -0.4 None
02/03 PM 2.4 -0.9 -0.4 None
03/03 AM 3.1 -0.2 0.0 None
Chesapeake Bay at Tolchester Beach
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.5 ft, Moderate 4.5 ft, Major 5.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.8 ft, Moderate 2.8 ft, Major 3.8 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
31/11 PM 4.0 2.3 1.9 Minor
01/11 PM 1.7 -0.0 -0.2 None
02/11 AM 0.9 -0.8 -0.3 None
03/01 AM 1.8 0.1 0.0 None
&&
$$
NJZ020-026-010700-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.S.0012.000000T0000Z-191101T0700Z/
Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
648 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
...MINOR FLOODING ALONG NORTHERN BARNEGAT BAY...
* LOCATIONS...Barnegat Bay, to the north of Barnegat Inlet, and
its tidal tributaries.
* TIMING...A southerly wind will keep water trapped in the
northern part of Barnegat Bay until late tonight.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to a half foot of inundation above
ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and
tidal waterways. Minor flooding is expected with some road
closures possible.
&&
$$
Iovino469
WHUS41 KPHI 010632
CFWPHI
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
232 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019
MDZ008-012-010745-
/O.CAN.KPHI.CF.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-191101T0700Z/
Cecil-Kent MD-
232 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has cancelled the
Coastal Flood Advisory for the Maryland counties of Kent and
Cecil.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Chesapeake/Delaware Canal at Chesapeake City
MLLW Categories - Minor 5.5 ft, Moderate 6.5 ft, Major 7.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.2 ft, Moderate 3.2 ft, Major 4.2 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
01/03 PM 2.6 -0.7 -0.3 None
02/03 AM 2.8 -0.5 -0.4 None
02/03 PM 2.4 -0.9 -0.4 None
03/03 AM 3.1 -0.2 0.0 None
Chesapeake Bay at Tolchester Beach
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.5 ft, Moderate 4.5 ft, Major 5.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.8 ft, Moderate 2.8 ft, Major 3.8 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
01/11 PM 1.7 -0.0 -0.2 None
02/11 AM 0.9 -0.8 -0.3 None
03/01 AM 1.8 0.1 0.0 None
&&
$$
DEZ003-004-011300-
/O.EXB.KPHI.CF.S.0012.000000T0000Z-191101T1300Z/
Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-
232 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019
...MINOR FLOODING ALONG LITTLE ASSAWOMAN BAY...
* LOCATIONS...Little Assawoman Bay and its tidal tributaries.
* TIMING...Water will remain trapped in Little Assawoman Bay
through the early morning hours.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to a half foot of inundation above
ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and
tidal waterways. Minor flooding will continue with some road
closures possible.
&&
$$
NJZ020-026-011300-
/O.EXT.KPHI.CF.S.0012.000000T0000Z-191101T1300Z/
Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
232 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019
...MINOR FLOODING ALONG NORTHERN BARNEGAT BAY...
* LOCATIONS...Barnegat Bay, to the north of Barnegat Inlet, and
its tidal tributaries.
* TIMING...Water will remain trapped in the northern part of
Barnegat Bay through the early morning hours.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to a foot of inundation above ground
level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal
waterways. Minor flooding will continue with some road closures
possible. Locally moderate flooding is likely.
&&
$$
Iovino218
WHUS41 KPHI 011258
CFWPHI
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
858 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019
DEZ003-004-NJZ020-026-011400-
/O.CAN.KPHI.CF.S.0012.000000T0000Z-191101T1300Z/
Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
858 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019
Water levels continue to recede. Therefore, the Coastal Flood
Statement will expire at 9 PM.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Delaware Bay at Lewes
MLLW Categories - Minor 6.0 ft, Moderate 7.0 ft, Major 8.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.3 ft, Moderate 2.3 ft, Major 3.3 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
01/12 PM 4.0 -0.7 -1.0 None
02/01 AM 2.9 -1.8 -0.8 None
02/01 PM 4.7 0.0 0.0 None
03/01 AM 3.9 -0.8 0.4 None
03/01 PM 4.4 -0.2 0.0 None
Barnegat Bay at Barnegat Light
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.5 ft, Moderate 4.5 ft, Major 5.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.0 ft, Moderate 2.0 ft, Major 3.0 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
01/11 AM 2.4 -0.1 -0.4 None
02/12 AM 1.6 -0.9 -0.5 None
02/12 PM 2.6 0.1 -0.1 None
03/01 AM 2.2 -0.3 0.2 None
03/12 PM 2.5 0.0 0.0 None
&&
$$
MPSWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this coastal flood statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this coastal flood statement went out at Oct 31, 12:31 PM EDT, 53 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 31, 12:31 PM EDT, 53 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1231 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move across the area tonight as low
pressure moves out of the eastern Great Lakes and across New
England and into southeastern Canada. This low will drift across
eastern Canada, before high pressure moves into the Mid
Atlantic Friday night into Saturday. A dry cold front will move
across the area Saturday night, with high pressure expected
Sunday night into Monday. A cold front is expected late Tuesday
into early Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Wave of rain has lifted north of the region, and only scattered
showers remain across parts of the forecast area this afternoon.
Latest KDOX radar showing another slug of rain over western
Maryland and moving into York County, Pennsylvania, but that
rain should mostly stay to the west, or clip Berks County a bit
later on.
Otherwise, the main issue will be the winds, as southerly flow
increases steadily as the trough to the west acquires a neutral
tilt and the attendant low pressure intensifies as it lifts
northeastward toward Lake Ontario by afternoon. Despite abundant
cloud cover, the steady south flow will usher in unseasonably
warm/moist air. Forecast highs are generally in the 70s (60s in
the Poconos), or 10-15+ degrees above seasonal averages.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
The main show comes tonight, as the trough to our west becomes
negatively tilted with an attendant midlevel jet max (an
impressive 120+ kt) nosing into the Northeast. Vertical shear
profiles are off the charts downstream (0-6 km bulk shear in
excess of 50 kt), but instability will be lacking with
widespread cloud cover and some residual capping. This makes for
a challenging severe-weather forecast, as the usual autumn
battle of strong dynamics versus marginal to negligible
instability takes shape. SPC maintains an enhanced risk of
severe storms in much of PA/MD/VA (generally west of the CWA)
with a sharp decrease to marginal east of the Delaware River.
Convection-allowing model simulations bear this out, with best
timing diurnally well west of the area. Additionally, model
soundings suggest very little instability may be present in our
area. As the strongly-forced line of convection moves into the
area during the late evening, the question will be if the slab-
like lift of the front will overcome increasingly negligible
ambient instability to allow for mixing of very strong winds to
the surface.
Current thinking is that the strength of the front/larger-scale
system should overcome the lack of environmental instability
for a time. Winds aloft are incredibly strong (NAM forecast
soundings have ~70-kt winds around 1 km AGL, e.g.), which is
near the level of capping. This is quite concerning, as the
layer below the capping inversion does appear conducive to
mixing during the late evening. "Convective inertia" may allow
for wind damage to occur into at least western portions of the
area late this evening before nonexistent CAPE finally takes its
toll on the line. Any remaining convection should move offshore
late, with rapid clearing behind the line.
The cold front will be readily felt, as winds switch to
westerly and likely become stronger/gusty. Winds may approach
advisory criteria on the coast, but held off on an advisory for
now given that the strongest winds may be rather brief and
possibly associated with the convective line itself.
Cold advection will be stout as well, with temperatures likely
falling 10-15 degrees within 2-4 hours. Given remaining
uncertainty on frontal timing and rather large spread in model
guidance, used a healthy dose of continuity for lows tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A relatively quiet long term period, with only one period of a
chance of rainfall, otherwise, dry weather is expected for much
of the extended period.
The low pressure system that pulls the cold front across the
area Thursday night will continue to lift northeast across
eastern Canada through Friday, while high pressure builds to our
south. This will keep a tight pressure gradient across the
area, allowing for gusty winds to remain across the area, with
gusts generally 20-30 mph. These gusts will drop off by sunset,
and winds will lighten further overnight as high pressure builds
across the Mid Atlantic region.
This high will build offshore and weaken through Saturday, but
fair weather will continue through the daytime. A dry cold front
is expected to move across the area Saturday night, and mainly
bring an increase in cloud cover across the area. Any lake
effect snow should remain north and west of the area.
High pressure approaches from the west on Sunday, but does not
fully build across the Mid Atlantic region until Sunday night
and Monday. Gusty winds will likely occur during the day Sunday,
but only gust in the 15-20 mph range.
The high retreats to our northeast Monday night, before a cold
front moves across the region late Tuesday into early Wednesday.
There is only a small chance of showers as the main moisture
and lift associated with any short waves/vorticity impulses are
expected to pass to our north.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
This afternoon (18Z-00Z)...Cannot rule out showers at
RDG/ABE/TTN, but this period may be mostly dry. Sub-VFR
conditions probable northwest of the urban corridor, but may
improve at times to VFR to the southeast. South winds will
increase to 10 to 20 kt with higher gusts. Southerly LLWS of
40-50 kt. Low confidence.
Tonight...Narrow and strongly forced line of showers and
possibly some embedded storms will move through the area,
generally between 01z and 06z. Strong/erratic wind gusts are
possible near this band of convection, with a quick switch to
west winds after the band moves through. Outside of convective
showers, speeds of 10 to 20 kt with higher gusts should be
expected. Brief sub-VFR conditions possible during the showers,
but improvement to VFR expected afterward. Moderate confidence.
OUTLOOK...
Friday-Friday night...VFR conditions expected. Gusty northwest
winds 20-30 knots expected during the day. Winds diminish
overnight.
Saturday...VFR conditions expected.
Saturday night...VFR conditions expected. Winds may increase
overnight and gust 15-20 knots at times.
Sunday-Sunday night...VFR conditions expected. Winds may gusty
15-20 knots at times during the day, then diminish by the
evening and overnight.
Monday...VFR conditions expected.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA remains up for all waters this afternoon, and then Gale
Warnings are in effect for tonight through Friday morning.
Seas will also build quickly in these conditions, possibly
reaching 7 to 11 feet on the Atlantic waters by late afternoon.
A narrow line of showers and possibly isolated storms will move
through overnight, with very strong/erratic wind gusts
possible. Afterward, winds will switch to west with gusts
exceeding 40 kt on the Atlantic waters. No changes were made to
the gale warning for the overnight period.
OUTLOOK...
Friday...Gale Warning remains in effect into Friday morning,
then conditions likely lower to Small Craft Advisory levels
through the day.
Friday night...Conditions likely to lower below advisory levels
overnight.
Saturday...Conditions expected to remain below advisory levels.
Saturday night-Sunday...Winds may increase to Small Craft
Advisory levels late Saturday night into Sunday morning before
lower below advisory levels Sunday afternoon.
Sunday night-Monday...Conditions expected to remain below
advisory levels.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The wind will increase from the south today. Even though the
flow will not be onshore, there should be little to push water
away from the coast. As a result, lingering spotty minor tidal
flooding is possible in the coastal counties of New Jersey and
Delaware around the time of high tide today.
The southerly flow will act to trap water in the tidal Delaware
River and in the upper part of Chesapeake Bay. Those areas may also
experience spotty minor flooding this evening.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-
431-450>455.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday for
ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...CMS/MPS
Short Term...CMS
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...CMS/Robertson
Marine...CMS/Robertson
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 31, 4:23 AM EDT, 9 hours 1 minute before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 423 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-015>019-021- PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-010830- New Castle-Kent-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Sussex- Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester- Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh- Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester- Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- 423 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New Jersey, northern New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania, northeast Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms will move through the region this evening into the early part of the overnight associated with a cold front. The potential exists for strong, damaging winds over 60 mph to occur in places as this line moves through. Given many trees remain fully leafed, power outages are possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. DEZ003-004-NJZ013-014-020-022>027-010830- Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth- Ocean-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic- Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington- 423 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Delaware, central New Jersey and southern New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms will move through the region this evening into the early part of the overnight associated with a cold front. The potential exists for strong, damaging winds over 60 mph to occur in places as this line moves through. Given many trees remain fully leafed, power outages are possible. Winds may also approach advisory levels behind the cold front late tonight into early Friday morning. Additional trees may be knocked down with power outages remaining possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. ANZ431-450>455-010830- Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm- 423 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and Delaware Bay Waters. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms will move through the region this evening into the early part of the overnight associated with a cold front. The potential exists for strong, damaging winds over 34 knots across the waters as this line moves through. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. ANZ430-010830- Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- 423 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Delaware Bay Waters. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms will move through the region this evening into the early part of the overnight associated with a cold front. The potential exists for strong, damaging winds over 34 knots across the waters as this line moves through. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 3:08 PM EDT | Coastal Flood Advisory | PHI | Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Mercer | 11 hr |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM EDT | Wind Advisory | PHI | Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester and 10 more | 18 hr |
Nearby
Coastal Flood Statements in New Jersey, 2019Coastal Flood Statements in Delaware, 2019Every coastal flood statement in 2019
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.